ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#341 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 23, 2013 8:59 pm

Certainly looks like a TD but NHC likes to wait for persistance.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#342 Postby meriland23 » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:00 pm

This is one to keep a eye on. The future and intensity of this storm depends on a very slight/minute change in direction around PR and DR. If it goes south of it (which is only a touch of difference between the models so far), it will be in a much more favorable area for intensification. If it goes north of it, it could dissipate due to insufficient waters temps and shear.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#343 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:03 pm

I'm more interested in seeing if another east coast trough will set up in the next weekend time frame. For the most part there has been one every 7-10 days this summer. In fact another one, pretty strong as well, is expected this upcoming weekend. We could even have another front make it down through to the gulf as well. Next weekend should be about the timeframe if 98 is going to go north or west.
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#344 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:04 pm

In the far eastern Atlantic, the NHC is more likely to be conservative. It might wait another run or for a visible.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#345 Postby meriland23 » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:08 pm

I could see the next update being interpreted as "Almost a TD, we promise, just a bit more to go"
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#346 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:09 pm

I think they will upgrade at 5 a.m. tomorrow morning if the currend trends continue. Definitely a closed circulation and convection building around the center.
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#347 Postby meriland23 » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:12 pm

It looks really really weak in comparison to yesterday

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Maybe it is just my inexperienced eyes.. I just see a whole lot of ocean gaps and not a ton of convection/storms.
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#348 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:18 pm

This setup looks like a Caribbean cruiser...
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Re:

#349 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:19 pm

meriland23 wrote:It looks really really weak in comparison to yesterday

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Maybe it is just my inexperienced eyes.. I just see a whole lot of ocean gaps and not a ton of convection/storms.


The center is under that recent convection and it seems to be consolidating.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#350 Postby ozonepete » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:20 pm

I think they'll go now for the 11PM since it's clearly a TD. They don't need to post watches or warnings and we all seem to agree on what it will do in general, i.e. go westward towards the northern islands, increase to a minimal TS soon and then get to a moderate TS or a little stronger as it approaches the islands. Not a tough introductory package.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#351 Postby meriland23 » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:23 pm

I am surprised by the persistent activity this early in the season. Makes me slightly anxious for august and can't even imagine what September might bring.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#352 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:25 pm

ozonepete wrote:I think they'll go now for the 11PM since it's clearly a TD. They don't need to post watches or warnings and we all seem to agree on what it will do in general, i.e. go westward towards the northern islands, increase to a minimal TS soon and then get to a moderate TS or a little stronger as it approaches the islands. Not a tough introductory package.

it clearly is.. even evidence of the beginnings of a curved band developing.
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#353 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:26 pm

Hasn't been a renumber yet. They're going to wait it looks like...
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#354 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:26 pm

No need to jump on it yet. There are no watches or warnings necessary and won't be for days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#355 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:27 pm

:uarrow: Agree with that. They can wait 6 more hours and no harm will be done.
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#356 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:28 pm

:uarrow: Except for the fact that if it meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, it should be classified as such at that time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#357 Postby SapphireSea » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:29 pm

Looks pretty good in organization, guess they wanna see what it's maxima looks like. I don't really see the cool SSTs in the obs that are being predicted and factored in. Unless I am looking in the wrong places. I do see however that shear does seem to be very hostile in the W. Atlc, and a persistent pattern seems to be in effect according to 10 day loops.
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#358 Postby Alyono » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:29 pm

future may not be as dim as we were thinking unless there is another SAL surge. Models have less shear than they did 24 hours ago
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Re:

#359 Postby Alyono » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:30 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote::uarrow: Except for the fact that if it meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, it should be classified as such at that time.


Best track can handle that.

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#360 Postby SFLcane » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:33 pm

Alyono wrote:future may not be as dim as we were thinking unless there is another SAL surge. Models have less shear than they did 24 hours ago


Indeed SAL has really thinned out. In general though 98L we be heading into a more stable airmass along with cooler sst's which should be enough to keep in check or we might see another pretty naked swirl.

Very close if not a TD already.

http://bit.ly/Wl1pxc
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