Official Track maybe shifted N but FL/NC remain ready.

[John]

We seen it before, major Hurricane barreling westward, alarms sounding from message boards FL, Gulf, etc., only to be turned away by an approaching East coast trough. NOT THE CASE HERE, a deeper look into the evolution of the upcoming pattern spells real trouble folks. While I will not use Such words to compare this event to 9/11 I respect Dave T. wxrisk very much. I am a firm believer that entertaining long range forecasts while dealing with tropical weather can be dangerous and forecasting a land falling Hurricane many day's away, the marksmanship can be way off. Not often enough does the atmosphere reveal hints, however this time may be different. A lot of water has passed under the bridge since Hurricane Andrew effected the Florida coast, Florida I believe you are about to be tested once again in the coming day's ahead. Before I totally commit myself I would want to look into some things tomorrow morning, it comes as no surprise to me NHC has bailed out on the Guidance but still at this point Im leaning toward a central Florida / NC strike, and a major one at that.

Reasoning.....
The track in short term will continue to be controlled by the well defined ULL to the NW of Isabel as observed by the WV imagery, this ULL will force Isabel to remain on the WNW heading through the next 72H, Thereafter the steering pattern becomes much more complicated because a high pressure ridge will build over the Western Atlantic, this forecast pattern would favor a more western component instead of a Northward turn over open waters as seen with Fabian. I believe Isabel is likely to be captured along 25 N before more of a true heading west occurs. What has me very concerned is the extended Guidance which Progs next weeks Southern Stream to phase with the Northern Stream and than shear off NE leaving a cutoff Low in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, and strong Ridging North of Isabel. This should stall any Front at that time near the area, If this scenario verifies than Isabel will approach the central Florida / NC coast as a major Hurricane, however I do not think Isabel is likely to cross the peninsula should she strike there due to a weaker steering flow, but rather stall just inland or right along but on the coast. I cannot stress enough the complicating factors that this event could have on the East coast of Florida / NC. Once again we are dealing with a forecast many day's away so changes will likely be made. All I can say at this point is to be ready, start now going over a plan because I really think you'll need it. Even though the official track has been shifted Northward a bit.
More later

[ChaserUK]

John, do you mind me quoting you on a UK weather board? I am planning to come to Florida next week. Yes I am mad but I have a couple of people interesting in joining me. I find your thoughts and forecast very interesting and well worth further analysis. Please let me know.

[John]

ChaserUk, I don't mind, in fact you have my permission and im pleased you find my forecasts and thoughts interesting. Drop a link to the UK board you are referring to and I may also enjoy reading there. have a great afternoon.
John