ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#421 Postby Riptide » Wed Jul 24, 2013 1:35 am

Here is a post about the 0z European from another forum...
00z ECMWF is stronger and much slower with the 98L vortex. Very much in line with the GFS and the rest of the guidance. Game on!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#422 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 1:48 am

Well a TD is classified as a semi-organized storm with 38 mph or less, TS is a wells organized storm at 39 mph or higher, right now the storm is at 35 mph, so probably a TD .. but only a skip away from a TS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#423 Postby AJC3 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 2:23 am

Riptide wrote:Here is a post about the 0z European from another forum...
00z ECMWF is stronger and much slower with the 98L vortex. Very much in line with the GFS and the rest of the guidance. Game on!


Interesting analysis of the two main global solutions. Interesting, and completely incorrect.

Through day 8, the ECM is neither stronger nor slower, and in fact is weaker/farther north for the most part from about day 5 onward.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#424 Postby Riptide » Wed Jul 24, 2013 2:25 am

AJC3 wrote:
Riptide wrote:Here is a post about the 0z European from another forum...
00z ECMWF is stronger and much slower with the 98L vortex. Very much in line with the GFS and the rest of the guidance. Game on!


Interesting analysis of the two main global solutions. Interesting, and completely incorrect.

Through day 8, the ECM is neither stronger nor slower, and in fact is weaker/farther north for the most part from about day 5 onward.

The aforementioned post may be a comparison to the 12z euro rather than the other models.
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#425 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 2:26 am

Ta-dah..
TD4 at 5am!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al982013_al042013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307240719
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 04, 2013, DB, O, 2013072212, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 3, AL042013
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#426 Postby AJC3 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 2:27 am

Riptide wrote: The aforementioned post may be a comparison to the 12z euro rather than the other models.


LOL, ya know, I realized that a few minutes after I posted it. The ECM wasn't being compared to the GFS, but to its own previous run.

Note to self: READ THE ENTIRE POST. (d'oh!)

As Emily Litella often said.... "Never mind!" :oops:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#427 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jul 24, 2013 3:44 am

Advisories up, weak TS through day 5...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#428 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jul 24, 2013 3:45 am

Last edited by tolakram on Wed Jul 24, 2013 6:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed direct image embed
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#429 Postby GCANE » Wed Jul 24, 2013 3:49 am

Pulling mid-level moisture along with it - a classic protected pouch.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

Convection firing nearly over the LLC.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 240245.jpg
Last edited by GCANE on Wed Jul 24, 2013 3:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#430 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 24, 2013 3:49 am

No troughs to begin pulling it up after day 4???
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ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#431 Postby southerngale » Wed Jul 24, 2013 3:51 am

000
WTNT34 KNHC 240841
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 28.1W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


---------------------------------------------------------



000
WTNT24 KNHC 240840
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
0900 UTC WED JUL 24 2013

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 28.1W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 28.1W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 27.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.6N 30.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.5N 34.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.2N 37.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.8N 41.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.2N 49.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 19.3N 56.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 20.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 28.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




-----------------------------------------------




000
WTNT44 KNHC 240841
TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
CENTER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
DATA INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM HAD A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND
MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS
NOW BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285 DEGREES AT
17 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST THE CYCLONE MOVES WESTWARD. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A FASTER FORWARD MOTION THAN MOST OF THE OTHER
TRACK MODELS. AS A RESULT...THE NHC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THESE
TYPICALLY RELIABLE MODELS AND SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THAN
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN THE TRACK
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATERS AND INTO A LITTLE DRIER ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED
IN THE NHC FORECAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WHICH COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
BECAUSE OF THIS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
DURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 13.9N 28.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 14.6N 30.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 15.5N 34.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 16.2N 37.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 16.8N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 18.2N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 19.3N 56.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 20.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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#432 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Jul 24, 2013 3:53 am

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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 - Discussion

#433 Postby GCANE » Wed Jul 24, 2013 3:54 am

Still tracking into the anti-cyclone with a large slot ahead of increasing tropopause height.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/e ... wm7shr.GIF

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF


Strengthening should continue.
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#434 Postby southerngale » Wed Jul 24, 2013 3:56 am

Image
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 - Discussion

#435 Postby GCANE » Wed Jul 24, 2013 4:00 am

Very high rain rate just a little over an hour ago

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... W.97pc.jpg
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 - Discussion

#436 Postby Meso » Wed Jul 24, 2013 4:01 am

No troughs to begin pulling it up after day 4???


Depends how far you want to look, and at what models. The long range GCEM shows a trough picking it up and moving it out as it reaches the Bahamas. But doesn't seem like anything in the short term.
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Re:

#437 Postby GCANE » Wed Jul 24, 2013 4:07 am

Kingarabian wrote:No troughs to begin pulling it up after day 4???


Latest GFS has it straight west. I would think with the Beta Effect it would curve a little more poleward.
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Re: Re:

#438 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 24, 2013 5:06 am

GCANE wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:No troughs to begin pulling it up after day 4???


Latest GFS has it straight west. I would think with the Beta Effect it would curve a little more poleward.

Yeah I forgot to look at the GFS... which has some sort of open wave.
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Re: ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 - Models

#439 Postby ronjon » Wed Jul 24, 2013 5:47 am

06z GFS buries TD 4 into Cuba on an almost westerly course for 8 days. Strong ridging holding sway over the Atlantic.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013072406/gfs_mslp_wind_atltropics.html
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#440 Postby KatDaddy » Wed Jul 24, 2013 5:51 am

TD 4 is official at 5AM. Models bring TD 4 to TS status over the next few days and continue a more W motion later in the forecast period. It would at least a week from tomorrow before it would enter the GOM at this point. Plenty of time to watch.
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