5 PM tropical update and mid atlantic coastal waters update

[WXBUFFJIM]

Hurricane Isabel remains a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale over the open Atlantic. At 5 PM EDT, the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 20.3 north, longitude 47.8 west or about 930 miles east northeast of the northern leeward Islands. Isabel is moving towards the west-northwest at near 13 mph and this general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the west after that. As a result, the northern leeward Islands and Puerto Rico would thankfully be missed out by Isabel. However with a ridge still positioned north of Isabel through the next 5 days, the chances of an east coast landfall goes up. The Bahamas, and the east coast from Florida northward into South Carolina have the highest potential of seeing Isabel move in. Isabel could still be a major hurricane by early next week as it approaches the Bahamas and the southeast US coast. All interests in those areas should monitor this hurricane very closely.

Maximum sustained winds are 135 mph with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale. Further strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours as warm water and very excellent outflow/anticyclone aloft favors further strengthening. In addition the eye looks better defined with the convection or the central dense overcast organized around it. Beyond 24 hours, some fluctuations in intensity are likely as eyewall dynamics will greatly determine intensity. Isabel will likely stay as a major hurricane for the next 5-7 days. Minimu central pressure is 948 millibars or 27.99 inches. Hurricane force winds extend outward 45 miles from the center while the tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

Meanwhile tropical depression #14 remains disorganized tonite with 35 mph maximum sustained winds. It's not expected to strengthen much as it approaches the Cape Verde Islands over the next few days. However it could become a tropical storm in the next day or two as it moves nnw towards the Cape Verdes. TD14 is only 105 miles away from the southern most Cape verde Islands.

Finally the remnants of Henri has made for a bad beach day in the outer banks area points north into VAB and Ocean City, Maryland. Part of the reason for that has to do with the pressure gradient. In other words the winds between a strong high pressure over the northern mid Atlantic region and the remnants of Henri off the VA/NC coast is enhancing the pressure gradient. Thus strong wind gusts along the Mid Atlantic coast and much cooler temps. Not the perfect beach day.

I got some buoy reports for 5 PM EDT, all wind speeds in knots, all temperatures for the water.

Chesapeake light, north northeast wind 31 knots, gusts to 34 knots, waves 12 feet.

Duck Pier not available.

The buoy 64 nautical miles east of Virginia Beach, VA, NNE at 25 knots, gusts to 29 knots, 74.5 degrees

Diamond Shoals Buoy, north winds 27 knots, gusts to 31 knots, 73 degrees, waves 10 feet.

The buoy 26 nautical miles southeast of Cape May, NJ, northeast at 25 knots, gusts to 31 knots, 73 degrees, waves 10 feet.

A northeast wind of 20-30 knots will continue for the VA-MD beaches tonight with offshore seas of 10 feet. Nearshore waves will be 5-8 feet along the Virginia and Maryland beaches. Along the North Carolina beaches, north winds 20-30 knots with 8-10 foot seas are likely tonight. This will all result in high waves and dangerous rip currents as well as minor beach erosion, especially at times of high tide. Other than that, Henri will be moving away from the coast tomorrow through Thursday and conditions along the mid atlantic coast will gradually improve through midweek.

Jim