ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

looking good this afternoon.. fairly symmetrical and still a slight warm spot in the middle of the convection with new convection firing in all quads with a good sprial band on the north and south side developing may be looking at a hurricane tomorrow if it continues to organize this quickly.

[tolakram]

18:15Z, getting dark

[Janie2006]

I've seen larger summertime mesoscale convective systems! Point being, a lot of things can happen between now and any possible island landfall. She's going to have to be a fighter, because there are a number of things stacked against her, climatologically speaking. That being said, it looks like an early CV season this year.

[wsoutherland]

Okay -- expert opinion needed. I'm booked on a 7-day cruise, Miami -> Cozumel -> Belize -> Caymans -> Miami, starts this Saturday. I know we won't have any problem getting out and going west, but what are your thoughts about this storm staying on a west course, headed into the Caribbean sea? I'm thinking getting back to Miami late next week might be a bit of a challenge. Packing a raincoat and extra Dramamine, I suppose.

[gatorcane]

18Z SHIPS intensity model guidance below.

The shear is going up by 120 hours but still brings it to a 70 Knot system

Code: Select all

 *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      DORIAN  AL042013  07/24/13  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    45    50    55    60    63    68    68    71    72    73    71    71    70
V (KT) LAND       45    50    55    60    63    68    68    71    72    73    71    71    70
V (KT) LGE mod    45    50    55    59    62    68    70    71    72    73    74    75    75
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         5     5     3     2     3     7     6    12    12    16    15    20    24
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1     0     1     3     3     5    10     1     3     2     2     2     4
SHEAR DIR         64   121    91   203   158   224   209   204   222   223   215   214   220
SST (C)         26.1  25.5  25.3  25.4  25.6  26.1  26.7  27.3  27.7  28.0  28.0  28.0  27.8
POT. INT. (KT)   117   112   110   111   113   117   124   131   136   139   138   138   135
ADJ. POT. INT.   117   110   109   109   112   116   123   131   135   135   132   132   128
200 MB T (C)   -53.8 -54.3 -54.6 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.5
TH_E DEV (C)       5     5     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    10    11    11    12
700-500 MB RH     71    72    74    69    65    56    50    46    42    47    45    45    46
GFS VTEX (KT)     12    14    14    16    15    16    15    15    15    16    16    17    17
850 MB ENV VOR    27    33    32    31    30    37    27    33    21    31    10    21    17
200 MB DIV        30    48    48    62    59    21    21    20     0    33    11    50    16
700-850 TADV      -2    -2    -2    -1     3     6    10     8    -3   -10    -9    -7    -6
LAND (KM)       1409  1589  1771  1964  1997  1774  1600  1468  1213   981   684   403   201
LAT (DEG N)     14.4  14.9  15.3  15.7  16.0  16.6  17.3  17.9  18.4  18.9  19.4  19.8  20.1
LONG(DEG W)     30.6  32.3  34.0  35.8  37.6  41.3  44.9  48.8  52.9  56.4  59.3  62.2  65.1
STM SPEED (KT)    17    17    17    18    18    18    18    19    18    15    14    14    13
HEAT CONTENT       1     0     0     0     0     0     4     9     7    28    19    29    15

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16      CX,CY: -14/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  35            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  532  (MEAN=623)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  14.8 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  73.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   1.   1.   3.   5.   7.  10.  12.  13.  13.  13.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   4.   5.   7.  10.  10.  11.  10.   9.   7.   5.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -8.  -9. -10.
  PERSISTENCE            2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -7.  -6.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   1.   2.   1.   2.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.   5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           5.  10.  15.  18.  23.  23.  26.  27.  28.  26.  26.  25.

   ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042013     DORIAN 07/24/13  18 UTC **
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  10.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  2.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   3.6 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.9
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  14.8 Range: 34.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  49.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.8
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  66.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.4
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  71.0 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.3
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :   0.2 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.3
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    36% is   2.8 times the sample mean(12.8%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    25% is   2.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042013     DORIAN 07/24/2013  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       3(  3)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/13072 ... _ships.txt

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Storm Dorian

Note: To those who are overlaying images in google earth, the program dose have a weather overlay.

[tolakram]

Just coming into view for these sat loops.

IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

VIS: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[stephen23]

Dorian appears to be heading right towards it's next forecast point

[gatorcane]

Top 10 Analogs for Dorian graphic to see where these systems tracked. Though too early to say, those two farthest west tracks look possible if Dorian doesn't dissipate.

[cycloneye]

Off Topic=To let know the members that there is a new poll at Talking Tropics forum about how many named systems will form in August. Those who may want to participate go and vote until July 31rst at 3:20 PM EDT when it closes.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115286&p=2322596#p2322596

[beoumont]

"gatorcane"]Top 10 Analogs for Dorian graphic to see where these systems tracked. Though too early to say, those two farthest west tracks look possible if Dorian doesn't dissipate.

What criteria are you using to include a historical storm as an "analog"?

A. Location within X ? degrees of current location? In the same 5 degree box?
B. Time of year? Within 7 days on the calendar? Second half of July? etc.
C. What period of storm history do the analogs come from? 1851 + , 1950+.

---------

She's going to have to be a fighter,

Not that it makes a difference, but I noticed several people referring to this storm as a "she:. Dorian is a boy storm. "The Picture of Dorian Gray": old movie classic, best seller book by Oscar Wilde.

[ROCK]

120hr 24knts shear will put a halt to any development and might bring him down a notch...

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF continues to show the same basically as what it has been showing in previous runs. Keeps the system weak and recurves it. 168 hour position below (orange blob at 30N, 60W):

[BigB0882]

Either the Euro is going to redeem itself or be a complete embarrassment for the season. I don't know what is going on with that model. It has Dorian plowing straight through that high pressure.

[tropicwatch]

Anybody know why the NHC Individual Tropical Cyclone "Storm Wallet" Text Products RSS feed for Dorian is not updating?

[tolakram]

19:15Z

[Blown Away]

18z...TVCN still WNW but track slowed a little, maybe opening door for recurve...

[GCANE]

Wind field appears to be getting more lopsided looking.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 0_SWHR.GIF

[SFLcane]

Way early still but something smells fishy here.

[fci]

I love that we are looking intently at 120, 168 and 200+ hour models.
My prediction is it will either be a low rider and go to the GOM, hit Florida, Hit NC or recurve and either as a Hurricane, Tropical Storm or dissipate.
A week from now, I will repost this and tell y'all how right I was!!!
LOL.
Seriously, this is the fun time with these systems, we all get to guess and then watch what actually happens. Summertime fun!!!!!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products. PRETTY MUCH- IGNORE ME, I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT!