ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Syx6sic]

dorian is looking really good she does want to grow and from the way things look it might do that just way to far out to tell anything im just glad its easier to track these from when i used to do it back in the early 90's with the hand made maps lol

[SFLcane]

[otowntiger]

I love that we are looking intently at 120, 168 and 200+ hour models.
My prediction is it will either be a low rider and go to the GOM, hit Florida, Hit NC or recurve and either as a Hurricane, Tropical Storm or dissipate.
A week from now, I will repost this and tell y'all how right I was!!!
LOL.
Seriously, this is the fun time with these systems, we all get to guess and then watch what actually happens. Summertime fun!!!!!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products. PRETTY MUCH- IGNORE ME, I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT!

So true. So many things can happen at this point, however, seriously ,my money (if I bet) would be on this re-curving before affecting or only glancing the islands simply because the large majority of storms forming in this area do that. Its the anomalies that do other things such as plow west into the islands, threaten the Gulf and/ or East coast.

[ROCK]

to clarify to other folks out there...those are 18Z Ensembles for the GFS...so take with a grain of salt......I see the TVCN moved up a notch but not by much...looks like the 12Z CMC....

[Alyono]

the SHIPS shear is bogus

the NHC forecast position has the storm in its own outflow

[ROCK]

the SHIPS shear is bogus

the NHC forecast position has the storm in its own outflow

Bogus as in how? please elaborate. Thanks

[OuterBanker]

I haven’t posted yet, so forgive me if this has been covered. This is the height of our season, plus family and company everywhere so I haven’t the time to spend here. I could not believe that Dorian has formed. If I was a betting man I would have never bet on it ever being formed from the invest off the coast. Too much dry air, cooler h2o, etc. Just too many negatives. But low and behold here he is. Just my own conclusions but it does seem like he has a chance of survival. Because it’s small and it’s carrying a favorable environment with it, it could survive the trip. Lots of negatives ahead of it, but if it survives to about 60W it will be in a much more favorable environment. I guess it’s a wait and see.

PS: For purely selfish reasons Dorian can’t come this way. A bowling tournament that I have participated in for the past 30 years is the 3rd and 4th of Aug. I get to play tourist in Willamsburg for a few days, don’t want to miss it

[Blown Away]

18z

[weatherwindow]

12z GEM...Through the Keys...In near Ft Myers...Out near Daytona...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

Donna...1960?
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... rack_s.gif

[NDG]

http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/7002/mtgi.jpg
18z...TVCN still WNW but track slowed a little, maybe opening door for recurve...

This is yesterday's run, this site has not updated today's run yet.

[ronjon]

12z GEM...Through the Keys...In near Ft Myers...Out near Daytona...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

Donna...1960?
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... rack_s.gif

Yikes don't mention that storm!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Looking at the above this system might only be a long range threat from Cap Cod to Nova Scotia, if that.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer -
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[fci]

Climatological history says recurve. Look at the tracks shown in this thread, or the discussion thread; I'm not sure; that show a recurve historically is what happens. It would be an anomaly to see a storm NOT curve away from the SE CONUS.
I suspect future models, if not showing dissipation, showing a consensus for recurve.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[GCANE]

Picked up a boundary-layer inversion today which most likely accounted for the drop in convection.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 0_SWHR.GIF

However, looks like it is trying to re-fire very close to the LLC. Good chance DMAX may fire this up tonight as the upper troposphere cools off.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 241300.jpg

[vbhoutex]

ALso the wnw motion is very likely do to the larger circ to its sw.. they are interacting a little .. dorian should bend back to the west as it passes to the north of the circ tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

I don't see the circulation you are talking about Aric. I do see inflow into Dorian and some lower clouds moving West but not a circulation. Please educate me as to what you are seeing.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

...DORIAN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 31.4W
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.4 WEST. DORIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS DORIAN MOVES
OVER COOLER WATER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF DORIAN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/17 KT. DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD IN TANDEM
WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHTLY PACKED AND IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE ONLY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE
THE FORWARD SPEED...WHICH IS DUE TO THE STRENGTH AND VERTICAL DEPTH
OF DORIAN. THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS MAINTAIN A ROBUST
AND MORE VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONE...WHICH GETS STEERED MORE SLOWLY
BY THE DEEPER MEAN FLOW. IN CONTRAST...THE HWRF AND ECMWF MODELS
WEAKEN DORIAN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER COOLER WATER
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH RESULTS IN A SHALLOWER AND WEAKER
VORTEX BEING STEERED MORE RAPIDLY WESTWARD BY THE STRONGER EASTERLY
TRADE WIND FLOW. GIVEN THAT DORIAN WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER
AT A BRISK 18 KT FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...MY FEELING IS THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS THE SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING...AND AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS.

DORIAN IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C SSTS...AND THE CYCLONE
SHOULD REMAIN OVER COOLER WATERS NEAR 25C FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO...WHICH COULD INDUCE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING. HOWEVER...BY 36-48
HOURS...DORIAN WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER SSTS WARMER THAN 26C AND IN
A VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
RE-STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SHOWING A LESS HOSTILE UPPER-AIR PATTERN NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MORE RIDGING AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS. IN CONSIDERATION OF THAT...
THE FORECAST INTENSITIES AT DAYS 4-5 HAVE BEEN INCREASED RELATIVE
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 14.6N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 15.3N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 16.1N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 16.8N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 17.5N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 18.7N 51.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 19.6N 58.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 20.0N 64.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 31.4W
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[tolakram]

ALso the wnw motion is very likely do to the larger circ to its sw.. they are interacting a little .. dorian should bend back to the west as it passes to the north of the circ tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

I don't see the circulation you are talking about Aric. I do see inflow into Dorian and some lower clouds moving West but not a circulation. Please educate me as to what you are seeing.

You can see it in this loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Below and slightly left of Dorian.

[gatorcane]

Interesting snippet from Stewart in the 5pm discussion:

THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SHOWING A LESS HOSTILE UPPER-AIR PATTERN NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MORE RIDGING AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS. IN CONSIDERATION OF THAT...
THE FORECAST INTENSITIES AT DAYS 4-5 HAVE BEEN INCREASED RELATIVE
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2045.shtml

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Just read the NHC 5pm disco, interesting note that that the upper level environment is not expected to be as harsh as they thought. They all so seem to think that the trough will not have as much of an effect as first thought. Could be getting a little more interesting down the road.