ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Miami Storm Tracker]

12z GEM...Through the Keys...In near Ft Myers...Out near Daytona...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

Donna...1960?
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... rack_s.gif

Don't want to see that again I was growing up in key west when she came through. But now have a house in Key Largo, so hoping the CMC does not verify.

[Alyono]

the only models that show recurve are the ones that show a bizarre slowdown in about 4 days

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah the 12z GFS seemed to be on something.

[northjaxpro]

Just read the NHC 5pm disco, interesting note that that the upper level environment is not expected to be as harsh as they thought. They all so seem to think that the trough will not have as much of an effect as first thought. Could be getting a little more interesting down the road.

Yeah we talked about this late this morning which showed the models were changing their tune on the intensity forecasts. The trends have continued this afternoon about that and NHC has followed suit and now think that Dorian may not have such an hostile environment as initially thought even 24 hours ago.

Should this trend continue, Dorian just may become quite a formidable tropical cyclone as he approaches the Northeastern Lesser Antilles in about 4-5 days from now.

[Alyono]

the SHIPS shear is bogus

the NHC forecast position has the storm in its own outflow

Bogus as in how? please elaborate. Thanks

because the hurricane is located within its own outflow. Not meteorological but an artifact regarding how SHIPS calculates shear

[TheStormExpert]

They are also bending the track more west out 4-5 days.

11am Track:


5pm Track:

[gatorcane]

"gatorcane"]Top 10 Analogs for Dorian graphic to see where these systems tracked. Though too early to say, those two farthest west tracks look possible if Dorian doesn't dissipate.

What criteria are you using to include a historical storm as an "analog"?

A. Location within X ? degrees of current location? In the same 5 degree box?
B. Time of year? Within 7 days on the calendar? Second half of July? etc.
C. What period of storm history do the analogs come from? 1851 + , 1950+.

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She's going to have to be a fighter,

Not that it makes a difference, but I noticed several people referring to this storm as a "she:. Dorian is a boy storm. "The Picture of Dorian Gray": old movie classic, best seller book by Oscar Wilde.

Beoumont, not sure how these are chosen exactly, I just got them from this site:

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/

"Top 10 Analog Tracks" selection under "Display" for Dorian 4.

The site doesn't elaborate on the selection criteria.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, interesting they bumped up the wind speed 15 mph long term. Wonder if that will be a trend?

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM model from Earth Research Laboratory 168 hours. Trending stronger from previous runs:

[gatorcane]

Latest 18Z Intensity models, needless to say they are not in agreement on intensity the further out in time you go:

[galaxy401]

They now forecast the storm possibly restrengthening in the long range if it survives the shear...The Lesser Antilles and possibly the east coast may have to watch this storm.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org

[blp]

The 12z Euro no longer showing recurve, but does show dissipation after 120 hours.

[cycloneye]

Getting larger with feed from Monsoon trough and holding it's own.

[CrazyC83]

THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SHOWING A LESS HOSTILE UPPER-AIR PATTERN NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MORE RIDGING AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS. IN CONSIDERATION OF THAT...
THE FORECAST INTENSITIES AT DAYS 4-5 HAVE BEEN INCREASED RELATIVE
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

Hint there? That sounds like a non-recurve scenario.

[Blown Away]

THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SHOWING A LESS HOSTILE UPPER-AIR PATTERN NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MORE RIDGING AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS. IN CONSIDERATION OF THAT...
THE FORECAST INTENSITIES AT DAYS 4-5 HAVE BEEN INCREASED RELATIVE
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

Hint there? That sounds like a non-recurve scenario.

Not sure how you conclude that, the latest runs for both those models recurved Dorian??

[torrea40]

THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SHOWING A LESS HOSTILE UPPER-AIR PATTERN NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MORE RIDGING AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS. IN CONSIDERATION OF THAT...
THE FORECAST INTENSITIES AT DAYS 4-5 HAVE BEEN INCREASED RELATIVE
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

Hint there? That sounds like a non-recurve scenario.

Target PR.???

[MiamiensisWx]

The upcoming long-wave pattern, per GFS and ECMWF, does not really favor landfall in the United States. The wavelength suggests several weak shortwaves rounding the top of a flattening subtropical ridge, leaving a mid- to upper-level weakness off the Southeast in hours 192-216 (days eight and nine at 12Z). The weakness does close up hereafter, but where Dorian is at that time plays a significant role in its track. South of 25°N and west of 70°W? The ridge catches Dorian; Dorian tracks into the east coast of FL. North of 25°N and west of 70°W? Dorian recurves off the Outer Banks and approaches Cape Cod but perhaps misses the United States. At this time, based upon Dorian's being stronger (deeper) than expected in the next few days, I would favor a track farther north, missing the Leeward Islands and then recurving away from the United States. Storms that have formed where Dorian did in late July almost always recurve, if not dissipate.

[RL3AO]

Not sure if it was mentioned, but the OFCL track is a decent amount faster than the 12z GFS. At 29/1800, the GFS is at 60W and OFCL is at 64W.

[Tireman4]

They now forecast the storm possibly restrengthening in the long range if it survives the shear...The Lesser Antilles and possibly the east coast may have to watch this storm.


I think all interests, the islands, the GOM and East Coast should keep a weather eye to this storm. Just my opinion.



The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org

[gatorcane]

Getting larger with feed from Monsoon trough and holding it's own.

Yeah it's really tapping into the monsoon trough moisture from the ITCZ...quite amazing as dry air is not doing much to it right now at all.

Nice looking system for even August or September let alone July!