ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

I think that how far west the Atlantic ridge builds back over Bermuda next week will play a role of how far west Dorian moves before possibly start a more northward track.
The further west Dorian gets and the further west the Bermuda ridge builds next week the more of a threat to FL it will be the farther east the ridge stays the more of a threat it will be to the Carolinas and N.E.

[Stormlover2012]

They now forecast the storm possibly restrengthening in the long range if it survives the shear...The Lesser Antilles and possibly the east coast may have to watch this storm.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org

We don't even know where this sucker is going lol, you should be More like Mexico to east coast!!

[cycloneye]

Latest microwave pass shows improving inner core structure.

[RL3AO]

18z GFS

Gains a lot of latitude in next 36 hours. I'm a little skeptical on that.

26th/0600 - 18z GFS - 17.5, -41
26th/0600 - NHC Fcst - 16.8N 41.0W

Its small, but a full degree further north in a little over one day could be a big difference down the line.

[NDG]

It looks really good!

[cycloneye]

Only a brief thought on what the formation of Dorian may mean. If this is only July,I can't imagine what August,September and October will be. Let's be prepared for anything mother nature will throw to us.

[gatorcane]

18z GFS

Gains a lot of latitude in next 36 hours. I'm a little skeptical on that.

26th/0600 - 18z GFS - 17.5, -41
26th/0600 - NHC Fcst - 16.8N 41.0W

Its small, but a full degree further north in a little over one day could be a big difference down the line.

But by 81 hours, it's right around where the 12Z GFS has it as far as latitude:

[Blown Away]

18z GFS

Gains a lot of latitude in next 36 hours. I'm a little skeptical on that.

26th/0600 - 18z GFS - 17.5, -41
26th/0600 - NHC Fcst - 16.8N 41.0W

Its small, but a full degree further north in a little over one day could be a big difference down the line.

Good point, seems the recurve models gain more latitude than NHC track, thus cover more water and don't get as far west.

[TheStormExpert]

Latest 18Z Intensity models, needless to say they are not in agreement on intensity the further out in time you go:

Even in just 12hrs. there is little agreement.

[Tireman4]

Only a brief thought on what the formation of Dorian may mean. If this is only July,I can't imagine what August,September and October will be. Let's be prepared for anything mother nature will throw to us.

I totally agree. This could be a wild and wacky three months. Make sure you are weather ready and prepared.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Alyono]

the short term motion likely means little given the large scale steering flow

[Alyono]

GFS just north fo the Caribbean in 120 hours, but MUCH weaker than the 12Z. pressures running around 1002 mb

[TheStormExpert]

Latest Water Vapor imagery.

[TheStormExpert]

Only a brief thought on what the formation of Dorian may mean. If this is only July,I can't imagine what August,September and October will be. Let's be prepared for anything mother nature will throw to us.

Yeah I understand what your exactly saying. A second question will be what will be the overall pattern? Will it be like 2010 where everything went out to sea, or will it be like 2004 where storms seemed to be hitting left and right (especially for floridians)??

[caribepr]

Only a brief thought on what the formation of Dorian may mean. If this is only July,I can't imagine what August,September and October will be. Let's be prepared for anything mother nature will throw to us.

Always interesting and keeps us awake. Being prepared is good!

[artist]

latest -

[lester]

GFS ended up taking it out to sea, at least it's consistent

[CrazyC83]

How high to bring up the intensity though?

[floridasun78]

this storm not going by plan or forecast models show it look may become hurr that not models have show all say going weak ts to strong ts not hurr

[northjaxpro]

Dorian is looking very healthy early this evening. The cyclone is tapping into the moisture from the ITCZ and now is rebuilding convection over the circulation center. For now, it appears he will fend off any dry air intrusions as I don't foresee that being an issue in the short term.