ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland23]

Do you guys believe this recurve will happen? sure is a different outcome than the model runs yesterday..

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 JUL 2013 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 14:54:45 N Lon : 32:13:43 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 /1001.6mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.4 3.4

Center Temp : -64.1C Cloud Region Temp : -41.6C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Do you guys believe this recurve will happen? sure is a different outcome than the model runs yesterday..

It's unknown at this point. There are so many variables in play...How strong will Dorian be? Will the high be as strong as its forecast to over the coming days? Will the approaching trough be as intense as the GFS says it will be?

Plenty of time to watch it.

[northjaxpro]

Do you guys believe this recurve will happen? sure is a different outcome than the model runs yesterday..

Well meriland, as we discussed earlier on the thread, it is going to be a close call. It is always about timing and the evolution of the ridge and the trough which is forecast to be over the Eastern U.S. early next week.

It also will be about just how far west Dorian can get and his forward motion in about 7 days. Long range model guidance from earlier today which I saw depicted that the Ridge will build back in with the trough lifting out by the early to mid part of next week. Also, how strong Dorian will be, or even weaker? It is just still too far out to say and we won't really know how this will shake down probably until this weekend at the earliest.

The only think I will say at this point that I am somewhat leaning towards is that it appears that Dorian may just miss the Leeward Islands, PR and Hispaniola to the north and approach the SE Bahamas within the next 5-7 days. Interesting days and long nights staying up late ahead!!

[BigB0882]

I have no idea it will recurve but I have to think the odds are in favor of that happening. Has any storm that ever formed so far to the east so early ever managed to hit the mainland? I don't think so. Of course, the islands still need to watch very closely as does everyone else just to be safe. History says recurve but every season and every storm is different. I think we will have a much greater idea within the next 2 days.

THIS IS NOT A FORECAST.

[KBBOCA]

I'm a total amateur, but I have to say, Dorian looks amazingly healthy for this time in the season, and a storm so far east. I really thought he'd take another 1 - 2 days to get this organized.

[meriland23]

I have no idea it will recurve but I have to think the odds are in favor of that happening. Has any storm that ever formed so far to the east so early ever managed to hit the mainland? I don't think so. Of course, the islands still need to watch very closely as does everyone else just to be safe. History says recurve but every season and every storm is different. I think we will have a much greater idea within the next 2 days.

THIS IS NOT A FORECAST.

Georges, Gloria, and Ivan did..

[hipshot]

From what I have read, it seems like the ridge east of Bermuda, which sounds like it is drifting west, could
keep Dorian from recurving. But, I guess that depends on the speed of Dorian and the speed of the drift
of the ridge. The storm does look impressive thus far and will be very interesting to watch over the next few
days. Just my opinion and CERTAINLY not a forecast.

[TropicalJon]

I have no idea it will recurve but I have to think the odds are in favor of that happening. Has any storm that ever formed so far to the east so early ever managed to hit the mainland? I don't think so. Of course, the islands still need to watch very closely as does everyone else just to be safe. History says recurve but every season and every storm is different. I think we will have a much greater idea within the next 2 days.

THIS IS NOT A FORECAST.

Georges, Gloria, and Ivan did..

I believe those storms formed much later in the season meriland....September storms if I recall correctly.

[WeatherEmperor]

I have no idea it will recurve but I have to think the odds are in favor of that happening. Has any storm that ever formed so far to the east so early ever managed to hit the mainland? I don't think so. Of course, the islands still need to watch very closely as does everyone else just to be safe. History says recurve but every season and every storm is different. I think we will have a much greater idea within the next 2 days.

THIS IS NOT A FORECAST.

Georges, Gloria, and Ivan did..

I believe those storms formed much later in the season meriland....September storms if I recall correctly.

I think bertha of 1996 would be a better example.

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[KBBOCA]

I've been offline for several hours, so I just caught up on reading the NHC 5 p.m. discussion. It just reminds me how much I appreciate Stacy Stewart and how clearly he explains things, as if he knows tons of us amateurs are reading and trying to learn more about trop. cyclones. It is what sets his discussions apart. Clear and informative, and taking a few extra lines to explain some of the reasoning behind various judgment calls. What a pro he is!

[MiamiensisWx]

The 18Z GFS is faster and more in line with the TPC track. In days six through eight, however, it shows a much weaker, more suppressed ridge over the Central Atlantic near 33°N 56°W: approximately 588 dm (compare with 594 dm at 35°N 55°W on the 12Z run). At the same time, in five days it shows a less-amplified pattern, thus a slower-to-move upper low and a suppressed anticyclone, meaning more shear over Dorian. This is closer to what the 12Z ECMWF projected for this time, so the ECMWF beat the GFS re: the pattern. Thus by days six through eight Dorian is weaker than on the 12Z run, which, along with its faster speed, allows it to go much farther west than on the 12Z run. At hour 186 Dorian is near 24.8°N 68.9°W, compared to 24.7°N 64.9°W on the 12Z run (hour 192). In short, Dorian is four degrees farther west on the 18Z, even though the ridge is much weaker on the 18Z run, because the same run also shows a weaker Dorian that moves with the low-level trades. But the overall pattern is even less favorable for a U.S. landfall given the suppressed ridge and the shortwaves that arrive on day eight to sweep Dorian out to sea and/or Atlantic Canada.

Based upon the model consensus, and upon the stronger intensity imparting a poleward movement through day five, Dorian still looks to pass north of the Leeward Islands and should pose little more than a rain threat, fortunately.

[MiamiensisWx]

18z GFS

Gains a lot of latitude in next 36 hours. I'm a little skeptical on that.

26th/0600 - 18z GFS - 17.5, -41
26th/0600 - NHC Fcst - 16.8N 41.0W

Its small, but a full degree further north in a little over one day could be a big difference down the line.

Actually the 18Z GFS makes quite a bit of sense given the current convective improvement in the structure of Dorian. The system is evolving much as the GFS had forecasted in the short range and is surviving the cooler waters better than some people (not the NHC) had expected. Based upon the steering flow at 500-850 mb, Dorian should gain at least three degrees of latitude over the next 36 hours. Already the center looks to be near 15.2°N 32.5°W based upon IR and the last visible satellite imagery. That is already a bit faster and farther NE than what the NHC has been forecasting in the next six hours until 06Z tomorrow.

[Gustywind]

8 PM TWD.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN AT 23/2100 UTC IS NEAR
14.6N 31.4W. THE CENTER OF DORIAN IS ABOUT 810 KM TO THE WEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DORIAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
17 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
55 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 29W AND 32W.
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 29W AND 30W...AND
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 15N32W.

[ROCK]

18Z NAVGEM...same as 12Z..out to sea...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Alyono]

Nothing wrong with GFS through 96 hours.

I fully expect this to reach 17W then turn nearly due west for about 48-72 hours

[Gustywind]

Increasing numbers for TS Dorian...

24/2345 UTC 14.9N 32.2W T3.0/3.0 DORIAN
24/1745 UTC 14.5N 30.2W T2.5/2.5 DORIAN

[MiamiensisWx]

18Z NAVGEM...same as 12Z...out to sea...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

? That run takes the system to near the E Bahamas at 12Z on day eight. The WNW movement suggests at least a threat to eastern NC as Dorian presumably recurves on the run...but I don't see the recurvature.

[Hurricaneman]

Honestly this needs to be watched if the ridge builds back in Florida to the eastern Gulf, but if like the GFS with less ridging the Carolinas to the NEUS to the Canadian Maritimes

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[ROCK]

18Z NAVGEM...same as 12Z...out to sea...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

? That run takes the system to near the E Bahamas at 12Z on day eight. The WNW movement suggests at least a threat to eastern NC as Dorian presumably recurves on the run...but I don't see the recurvature.

NAVGEM only goes out 180hrs...at that time is moving nearly NW missing the E Bahamas...talking about this one run as it was almost indentical to the 12Z....so yeah presumably...