ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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torrea40

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#761 Postby torrea40 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:34 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#762 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:35 pm

00z Best Track up to 50kts.

AL, 04, 2013072500, , BEST, 0, 149N, 324W, 50, 1000, TS
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Re:

#763 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:35 pm

Alyono wrote:Nothing wrong with GFS through 96 hours.

I fully expect this to reach 17W then turn nearly due west for about 48-72 hours



its got no choice...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#764 Postby torrea40 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:39 pm

Due West...275

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#765 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:39 pm


984
WHXX01 KWBC 250034
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0034 UTC THU JUL 25 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN (AL042013) 20130725 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130725 0000 130725 1200 130726 0000 130726 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 32.4W 16.3N 36.0W 17.4N 39.9W 18.0N 43.9W
BAMD 14.9N 32.4W 16.1N 35.4W 17.2N 38.4W 18.1N 41.2W
BAMM 14.9N 32.4W 16.0N 35.6W 17.1N 38.8W 17.9N 41.9W
LBAR 14.9N 32.4W 16.1N 35.8W 17.1N 39.3W 17.7N 43.0W
SHIP 50KTS 55KTS 61KTS 61KTS
DSHP 50KTS 55KTS 61KTS 61KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130727 0000 130728 0000 130729 0000 130730 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 47.7W 18.6N 54.8W 19.0N 61.0W 18.7N 66.5W
BAMD 19.0N 43.8W 20.1N 48.0W 20.2N 51.0W 19.3N 53.7W
BAMM 18.7N 44.8W 19.9N 50.1W 20.9N 55.0W 21.8N 59.5W
LBAR 18.4N 46.7W 19.2N 53.5W 19.6N 59.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 62KTS 64KTS 65KTS 63KTS
DSHP 62KTS 64KTS 65KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 32.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 29.0W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 25.4W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 30NM

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#766 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:45 pm

Looks to be bending more towards the west right now which would fit more with the NHC over the GFS and does it look like its making a run at hurricane status or am I being a loon. Non the less this is doing more than sustaining over the cooler water in fact its strengthening

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Re:

#767 Postby thundercam96 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:45 pm

Gustywind wrote:Increasing numbers for TS Dorian...

24/2345 UTC 14.9N 32.2W T3.0/3.0 DORIAN
24/1745 UTC 14.5N 30.2W T2.5/2.5 DORIAN


If you don't mind me asking, what does the "T" mean? I'm a student, learning about meteorology, but I have never seen this before.... thanks much!
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Re: Re:

#768 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:47 pm

thundercam96 wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Increasing numbers for TS Dorian...

24/2345 UTC 14.9N 32.2W T3.0/3.0 DORIAN
24/1745 UTC 14.5N 30.2W T2.5/2.5 DORIAN


If you don't mind me asking, what does the "T" mean? I'm a student, learning about meteorology, but I have never seen this before.... thanks much!


Tropical
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Re: Re:

#769 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:47 pm

thundercam96 wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Increasing numbers for TS Dorian...

24/2345 UTC 14.9N 32.2W T3.0/3.0 DORIAN
24/1745 UTC 14.5N 30.2W T2.5/2.5 DORIAN


If you don't mind me asking, what does the "T" mean? I'm a student, learning about meteorology, but I have never seen this before.... thanks much!



Yes, I am curious too, as well as what 3.0/3.0 means..
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Re: Re:

#770 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:49 pm

meriland23 wrote:
thundercam96 wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Increasing numbers for TS Dorian...

24/2345 UTC 14.9N 32.2W T3.0/3.0 DORIAN
24/1745 UTC 14.5N 30.2W T2.5/2.5 DORIAN


If you don't mind me asking, what does the "T" mean? I'm a student, learning about meteorology, but I have never seen this before.... thanks much!



Yes, I am curious too, as well as what 3.0/3.0 means..


In the Dvorak scheme it would equal a 50kt storm
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#771 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:50 pm

My intensity and position guesses based upon satellite trends and the influx of moisture from the south:

25/0600Z: 17.2N 34.5W -- 50 kt
25/1800Z: 17.4N 38.0W -- 55 kt
26/0600Z: 17.5N 41.5W -- 55 kt
26/1800Z: 17.6N 45.2W -- 60 kt
27/1800Z: 18.5N 52.3W -- 55 kt
28/1800Z: 19.6N 59.6W -- 55 kt
29/1800Z: 20.5N 64.8W -- 55 kt
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Re:

#772 Postby abajan » Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:52 pm

Alyono wrote:Nothing wrong with GFS through 96 hours.

I fully expect this to reach 17W then turn nearly due west for about 48-72 hours
What longitude did you actually mean to state?
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Re: Re:

#773 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:52 pm

Oh ty, had to look up the Dvorak scheme, now that makes sense lol.. though it says on the page I am looking at that 3.0 = 45 kts? Maybe the page is flukey lol
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#774 Postby artist » Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:53 pm

more info on the Dvorak technique -
The Dvorak technique is a method using enhanced Infrared and/or visible satellite imagery to quantitatively estimate the intensity of a tropical system. Cloud patterns in satellite imagery normally show an indication of cyclogenesis before the storm reaches tropical storm intensity. Indications of continued development and/or weakening can also be found in the cloud features. Using these features, the pattern formed by the clouds of a tropical cyclone, expected systematic development, and a series of rules, an intensity analysis and forecast can be made. This information is then standardized into an intensity code.

more at link-
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html
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Re: Re:

#775 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:53 pm

abajan wrote:
Alyono wrote:Nothing wrong with GFS through 96 hours.

I fully expect this to reach 17W then turn nearly due west for about 48-72 hours
What longitude did you actually mean to state?


I think it was supposed to be 17N not 17W
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Re: Re:

#776 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:55 pm

meriland23 wrote:Yes, I am curious too, as well as what 3.0/3.0 means...

It's a value assigned to various satellite-indicated appearances of tropical cyclones. A higher value indicates a stronger signature based upon such features as: banding (or the lack thereof), the thickness (aerial coverage) of the coldest cloud tops, the coldest solid band of convection around the eye, whether an eye exists, the size of the satellite-indicated eye, and other such criteria. Each type of appearance under each of these categories is assigned a value: i.e., X value for so and so banding. So the final value is a composite based upon the combined values for each intensity determinator. A higher composite value indicates a stronger cyclone.
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Re: Re:

#777 Postby artist » Wed Jul 24, 2013 7:56 pm

meriland23 wrote:Oh ty, had to look up the Dvorak scheme, now that makes sense lol.. though it says on the page I am looking at that 3.0 = 45 kts? Maybe the page is flukey lol

meriland, 3. is classified at 45 knots but the next classification number is 3.5 which starts at 55 knots, so I would guess the middle ground would be around 50 knots.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
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Re: Re:

#778 Postby abajan » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:02 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
abajan wrote:
Alyono wrote:Nothing wrong with GFS through 96 hours.

I fully expect this to reach 17W then turn nearly due west for about 48-72 hours
What longitude did you actually mean to state?


I think it was supposed to be 17N not 17W
Ah yes. Of course.

Thanks
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Re: Re:

#779 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:06 pm

TropicalJon wrote:
meriland23 wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:I have no idea it will recurve but I have to think the odds are in favor of that happening. Has any storm that ever formed so far to the east so early ever managed to hit the mainland? I don't think so. Of course, the islands still need to watch very closely as does everyone else just to be safe. History says recurve but every season and every storm is different. I think we will have a much greater idea within the next 2 days.

THIS IS NOT A FORECAST.



Georges, Gloria, and Ivan did..



I believe those storms formed much later in the season meriland....September storms if I recall correctly.


How about Bertha in 96?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#780 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:09 pm

Bertha in 1996 would almost be a perfect analog for Dorian IMO
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