Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

we have just the tail end of that over by us... showers and windy.. but nothing too bad.
stay dry and safe over there in PR

[cycloneye]

We have Invest 98L in the Eastern Atlantic. Go to the 98L Discussion thread to get all the information about it.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST MON JUL 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS PROBABLY AT WESTERN PR COAST
CURRENTLY AND EXTENDING TOWARD NORTHEAST INTO MOST OF THE
REMAINING CONVECTION. BUT MOST THUNDERSTORMS WELL OFFSHORE HAVE
WEAKENED GREATLY. THERE MAY BE MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF PR STILL THIS AFTERNOON BUT EVEN THAT WOULD BE ON
GROUND THAT HAS BEEN MOSTLY DRY SO FAR. SCATTERED THUNDER HAS
REDEVELOPED OVER USVI SO BACKED OFF ENDING THEM BEFORE EVE BUT
THEY ARE DEFINITELY DECREASING WITH THE ONSET OF DRY ADVECTION
FROM THE EAST.

DRY AIR IS FOLLOWING THIS WAVE FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FOR WESTERN PR EACH
AFTERNOON.

NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 19W...IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN
AREA ON SUNDAY AFTER STRENGTHENING BRIEFLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.
SO FAR...IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT PASSED THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST SHRA/TSRA ARE MOVG N AND W OF PR BUT WL CONT NR
TJMZ/TJBQ INTO EARLY EVE...ALG WI OBSCD MTNS. ELSEWHERE COND WL
IMPRV MUCH BY EVE. WINDS BLO FL150 GENERALLY ESE 15-23 KT THRU
MOST OF TUE.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
BUT WINDS/SEAS TO BE BELOW 21 KT/6 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 88 79 89 / 10 0 20 20
STT 80 90 80 90 / 10 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013

DISCUSSION FROM JULY 22/00UTC: WEST OVER THE DOMAIN...MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST USA IS STEERING A TUTT LOW WEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THE LOW
IS TO MEANDER OVER WESTERN CHIHUAHUA. THROUGH 36-48 HRS IT IS TO
RELOCATE TO SONORA...AND BY 72 HRS IT REACHES NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE IS CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW...AND AS SUCH IT
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE CYCLE PROGRESSES.
INITIALLY...AS IT MEANDERS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...THIS WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...WHERE IT IS
TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM/DAY. CONVECTION IN THIS AREA PEAKS ON DAY 02...WHEN MAXIMA
IS TO INCREASE TO 25-50MM. BUT AS THE LOW/TROUGH PULLS AWAY...THIS
WILL THEN DECREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY.

ANOTHER TUTT IS INITIALIZED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF/CAMPECHE SOUND
TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS TO RETROGRESS
INTO CENTRAL MEXICO BY 42-48 HRS...AND INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/WEST OF COLIMA BY 72-84 HRS. AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL MEXICO THIS WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY.

A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA/NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN USA.
RIDGE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO HOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE
CENTERING ON A CLOSED HIGH THAT MEANDERS BETWEEN SOUTHERN
FLORIDA-NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL-EASTERN USA IS TO THEN PRESS AGAINST THIS AXIS...LEADING
TO SOME EROSION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE SHORT WAVE RIDGE
PERSISTS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS-CUBA TO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ARE TO REMAIN ON THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THIS
RIDGE...TO VENT DIURNAL/SEA BREEZE RELATED CONVERGENCE TO RESULT
IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY. THROUGH
72-84 HRS THIS IS TO INCREASE AS TROUGH PATTERN DEEPENS...WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.

A TUTT TO THE EAST LIES TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS-EASTERN CUBA. THIS TUTT SEPARATES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM A CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS TO THE WEST...THE TUTT
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY WHILE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES...WITH AXIS TO TRAIL ACROSS NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLES THROUGH 84-96 HRS.
FURTHERMORE...A DEEP LOW ALONG THIS AXIS IS TO RETROGRESS TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES BY 84-96 HRS...TO STRENGTHEN THE
TUTT PATTERN LATER IN THE CYCLE. AS THE TUTT MEANDERS ACROSS
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA IT IS TO ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. PUERTO
RICO IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT LATER ON
DAY 03...WHEN THE TUTT IS TO INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE TO
RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. MOST
ACTIVE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLES.

SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE...AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...IS FORECAST TO VENT CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ/NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH. ACROSS THE NORTHERN GUIANAS
TO NORTHEAST VENEZUELA THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY...WHILE OVER CENTRAL-WESTERN
VENEZUELA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY. WESTERN-NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AS MODELS SHOW PANAMANIAN LOW INTENSIFYING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ANDEAN REGION-WESTERN PLAINS TO RESULT IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY THROUGH
36 HRS...AND 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY AT 36-60 HRS.
LATER IN THE CYCLE...AS THE PANAMANIAN LOW WEAKENS...THIS WILL
DECREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE
32W 36W 40W 44W 48W 51W 54W 57W TW
64W 69W 73W 77W 81W 85W 89W 92W TW
87W 90W 94W 98W 101W 104W 107W 110W EW
94W 98W 102W 105W 108W 112W 115W 117W TW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W ENTERS FRENCH GUIANA BY 72 HRS...WHERE IT
IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
ACROSS SURINAME TO NORTHERN GUYANA...AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
ITCZ...IT WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OVER THE FRENCH AND WINDWARD ISLES IT IS TO
THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W IS ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
PUERTO RICO-VIRGIN ISLES...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. ACROSS HISPANIOLA IT IS TO
THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM/DAY. AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS JAMAICA...IT WILL ENTER
CONVERGENT SIDE OF UPPER TUTT PATTERN...LEADING TO GRADUAL EROSION
OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...IT IS TO ONLY FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. SIMILARLY ACROSS
EASTERN-CENTRAL CUBA ON DAY 02. OVER VENEZUELA...THIS IS TO
SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM
THROUGH 30 HRS...WHILE OVER COLOMBIA TO EASTERN PANAMA EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM AT 36-60 HRS.
OVER COSTA RICA TO NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST HONDURAS IT IS TO THEN
RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM BY
60-72 HRS. THIS QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS HONDURAS TO EL SALVADOR
THROUGH 84 HRS...WHILE OVER BELIZE TO GUATEMALA/SOUTHERN MEXICO IT
WILL THEN RESULT IN ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.

EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 87W IS TO TRIGGER DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN HONDURAS TO BELIZE/GUATEMALA EARLY THIS CYCLE WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...WHILE OVER
SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL MEXICO...IN INTERACTION WITH TUTT ALOFT...
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W IS TO ALSO INTERACT WITH EVOLVING TUTT
PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN-CENTRAL MEXICO...TO RESULT IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY.

MCKENZIE...BDM (BAHAMAS)
ROBINSON...MSJ (JAMAICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today in PR with only a few showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
354 AM AST TUE JUL 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU TODAY THEN TUTT
WILL BECOME DOMINANT WX FEATURE WED-FRI. RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO DOMINATE TODAY AND WED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY QUIET TODAY UNDER SAHARAN AIR LAYER. MODIS AQUA
AOD IMAGE FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DUST HAZE OVR THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THAT SHOULD BE OVER US TODAY. WEAKENING SAL
AND LESS HAZY WED. ON THU...CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS WRN PR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RETROGRESSING
TUTT WITH BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI.

WX IMPROVES SAT-SUN UNDER WEAKENING TUTT AND BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 98L WILL REACH THE
AREA NEXT MON AND TUE. ALTHOUGH NHC CURRENTLY SHOWS 40% CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TC IN THE NEXT 48 HRS NONE OF THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A TC WITH INCREASING
HOSTILE CONDITIONS BEGINNING THU NIGHT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE DO NOT SHOW ANY SIG POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WITH THIS
WAVE AT THIS TIME EITHER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME HZ PRESENT DUE TO SAL ENTERING THE REGION TODAY.
VCTS/SHRA MAY CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TJMZ...STARTING AT AROUND 23/16Z. LATEST TJSJ 23/00Z SOUNDING
SHOWED LLVL WINDS FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 KT AND WINDS 15 KT. DUST HAZE WILL RESTRICT
VSBYS BETWEEN 7-9SM.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 80 89 80 / 0 20 20 10
STT 89 80 89 80 / 0 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Forecast from some Caribbean Islands

http://www.antiguamet.com/

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST TUE JUL 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SUB-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TODAY THEN TUTT
WILL BECOME DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SAHARAN
AIR LAYER TO DOMINATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED CLOUD AND SHOWER CONDITIONS PREVAILED TODAY
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE DOPPLER RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGES ONLY SHOWED DRY CU LINES OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THIS DRY SCENARIO WILL SLIGHTLY CHANGE AS MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND PROBABLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.


NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE NOW SEEN NEAR 23 WEST.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR BRIEF
MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS WRN PR AND SPCLY TJMZ FROM 23/16Z TO
23/22Z AND AFT 24/16Z. TSRA PSBL WRN PR 23/18-21Z. LLVL WINDS
EASTERLY 10 TO 20 KT.


&&

.MARINE...NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AT
AROUND 15 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 90 / 20 20 10 20
STT 80 89 80 89 / 20 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

DISCUSSION FROM JULY 23/00UTC: WEST OVER THE DOMAIN...MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST USA GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE
NORTHERN STATES OF MEXICO THROUGH 48-72 HRS...WHERE IT IS TO THEN
BECOME DOMINANT MESO-SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE. AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS...IT IS TO STEER A WANING TUTT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STATES OF MEXICO...TO MOVE ACROSS CHIHUAHUA/SONORA EARLY IN THE
CYCLE...INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA BY 48 HRS. A SECONDARY TUTT LIES
TO THE SOUTH...WITH AXIS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG 100W.
THIS IS TO ALSO MIGRATE WEST ACROSS MEXICO...MOVING WEST OF
COLIMA/SINALOA BY 48-54 HRS. THE TUTT TO THE NORTH IS TO ENHANCE
DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...WHERE IT IS
TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MMMM/DAY THROUGH 48-60 HRS. BY 72-96 HRS THIS DECREASES TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...AS THE
OTHER TUTT MOVES WEST...IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY. THROUGH 36-48 HRS THIS IS
TO THEN SETTLE AT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY.

AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA CONTINUES
TO PRESS AGAINST A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA/NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN-WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE PATTERN IS TO GENERALLY HOLD OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS....WITH RAPID EROSION EXPECTED ACROSS FLORIDA/NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS BY 60-66 HRS. AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES...DIVERGENCE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS IS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. INITIALLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY.
BUT AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH 60-72 HRS THIS IS TO INCREASE TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

ANOTHER TUTT TO THE EAST FLANKS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AS IT
EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS/TURKS-EASTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...WHILE
ORIGINATING ON A CLOSED LOW NEAR 27N 60W. THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE
LIES TO THE SOUTH...EXTENDING ACROSS THE GUIANAS-VENEZUELA TO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
WEST... THE TUTT IS TO SHEAR A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY 36-48 HRS. THIS IS TO THEN RETROGRESS INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BY 54-60 HRS. THE RETROGRESSING VORTEX IS TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLES THROUGH 48
HRS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM.
IT IS TO ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
CUBA...WHERE IT WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY. AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR...TO SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THROUGH
60-96 HRS THIS SPREADS WEST ACROSS BELIZE-GUATEMALA TO THE
SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY.

SIMULTANEOUSLY...THE MAIN BODY OF THE TUTT...AS IT MEANDERS NORTH
OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES...IS TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS
PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLES AS CLOSED LOW REPOSITIONS JUST NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS. THIS REFLECTS QUITE WELL AT MID AND LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...SUSTAINING AN INDUCED INVERTED TROUGH IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE INDUCED TROUGH MOVES OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLES BY 54-60 HRS...INTO THE VIRGIN ISLES/PUERTO RICO BY 66-72
HRS. THIS IS TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS IT
MIGRATES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH PWAT TO PEAK AT
40-45MM. INITIALLY...THE TUTT ALOFT IS TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY. BUT AS AXIS DEEPENS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES...EXPECTING ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLES. OVER THE LEEWARD ISLES
THE INDUCED TROUGH WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM...WHILE OVER PUERTO RICO EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. THIS IS TO ALSO AFFECT THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON DAY 04.

MEANDERING CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA IS TO VENT CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ/NEAR EQUATORIAL
TROUGH OVER THE GUIANAS-VENEZUELA TO COLOMBIA. ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GUIANAS TO NORTHEAST VENEZUELA THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY...WHILE OVER CENTRAL-WESTERN
VENEZUELA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY. WESTERN-NORTHERN COLOMBIA...AS ENHANCED BY PERSISTENT
CELL OF THE PANAMANIAN LOW...WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL WAVES. AMAZONIA IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA
AND EASTERN PLAINS ARE TO EXPERIENCE GRADUAL INCREASE IN ACTIVITY
THROUGH 72 HRS...WHEN MAXIMA IN THIS AREA INCREASES TO 25-50MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE
39W 42W 46W 49W 52W 56W 59W 62W TW
73W 77W 80W 83W 86W 89W 92W 95W TW
95W 98W 102W 105W 108W 112W 115W 117W EW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W IS TO ENTER FRENCH GUIANA BY 48 HRS...
WHERE IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15MM. ACROSS SURINAME TO NORTHERN GUYANA...AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE ITCZ...IT WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM BY 72-78 HRS. OVER THE FRENCH/WINDWARD ISLES TO
VIRGIN ISLES IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM BY 84-96 HRS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W CONTINUES TO MOVE UNDER CONVERGENT SIDE OF
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN TUTT. AS A RESULT...MODELS SHOWING RAPID
EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. OVER JAMAICA-CUBA IT IS TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY. OVER
COLOMBIA TO EASTERN PANAMA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM BY 30-36 HRS. OVER COSTA RICA TO
NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST HONDURAS IT IS TO THEN RESULT IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM BY 36-48 HRS. THIS
QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS HONDURAS TO EL SALVADOR THROUGH 60
HRS...WHILE OVER BELIZE TO GUATEMALA/SOUTHERN MEXICO IT WILL THEN
RESULT IN ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM BY
72-96 HRS.

EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 95W IS TO PHASE WITH TUTT OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO...FAVORING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS.
AFTERWARDS...MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ITCZ.

MCKENZIE...BDM (BAHAMAS)
ROBINSON...MSJ (JAMAICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail during the next few days before the outer fringes of TD 4 affect the area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
417 AM AST WED JUL 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP TUTT WILL BECOME DOMINANT WX FEATURE OVR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. TUTT THEN WILL BEGIN TO FILL/WEAKEN SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIGDE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. INVEST 98L LIKELY TO
BECOME TD4 LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODIS AQUA AOD PRODUCT FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED ANOTHER
BATCH OF SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. OVERALL...STILL
DRY TODAY UNDER WITH VERY LIMITED IF ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS
THEN BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THU-FRI UNDER
INFLUENCE OF TUTT WITH NMRS SHRA/TSRA OVER WRN HALF OF PR. SOME
DRYING SAT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS
WITH THE DRYING. TUTT ALSO WILL BEGIN TO FILL WITH LESS INFLUENCE
OVR THE AREA.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS NOW FCST FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT UNDER
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WELL AHEAD OF WHAT IS LIKELY TO
BECOME TD4. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE AREA
MON BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL
MON NIGHT AND TUE. WHILE THE SYSTEM LOOKS PRETTY GOOD THIS MORNING
ONLY THE 00Z GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM SURVIVING OVR THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS. MAIN INHIBITING FACTORS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
LOOK TO BE COOL WATERS IN THE SHORT TERM AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
DAYS 3-5. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH AS GFS SUGGESTS
SOME HEAVY RAINS APPEAR POSSIBLE NOW MAINLY MON NIGHT-TUE TIME FRAME.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC FOR MORE DETAILS INTO THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TJMZ...FROM 24/16Z TO 24/21Z. LLVL WINDS
EASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SCT TSTMS THU-SAT UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT. INVEST 98L
LIKELY TO BECOME TD4 LATER TODAY AND BRING SQUALLY WX TO ATLC
OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 79 / 10 20 20 20
STT 88 80 89 80 / 10 20 20 30

[msbee]

We have Tropical Storm Dorian!

[Gustywind]

We have Tropical Storm Dorian!

Yeah Barbara, and the first tracks prediction put Dorian pretty close to the Leewards and especially the Northern Leewards. We should monitor carefully during the next couple of days.

[msbee]

we're watching closely , Gusty,watching closely..

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST WED JUL 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TUTT LOW NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
WILL MOVE TO THE WEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING MORE
UNSTABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON IN DIFFERENT SECTORS
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.
THAT COMBINATION CAUSED THE SHOWERS.

THE TUTT LOW...WHICH IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE WEST WILL POSITION
ITSELF IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL HELP
DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN IS ABOUT 410 MILES WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...MOVING TO THE WNW. AT THIS TIME IT IS EXPECTED THAT
DORIAN WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL PR AND USVI TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJMZ...TNCM AND POSSIBLY TKPK THROUGH ABOUT 24/22Z. LLVL
WINDS EASTERLY 10 TO 20 KT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP TO 4 OR 5 FEET ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TUTT LOW MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 79 88 / 20 20 20 30
STT 79 89 78 90 / 20 20 30 30

[Gustywind]

we're watching closely , Gusty,watching closely..

yeah Dorian is not a cartoon but let's hope he will go fishing . Whereas, let's wait and see.

[cycloneye]

5 PM EDT forecast Track

[cordelia667]

Hello All From St. Croix, US Virgin Islands. As you can imagine, I am monitoring TS Dorian closely. Although, it appears the NHC and most reliable models forecast Dorian to go N of we, here in the USVI, until I see it's forward movement change to at least 290 degrees, I am not so sure how close he will be when he approaches our area. I have read on NHC Advisory movement at 285 degrees, but then on NRL read 280 degrees.

I believe TS Dorian is being steered along below a tropical ridge N of him, is that correct? And, if that is the case, will there be a lifting or weakening in the ridge, allowing Dorian to move N of us here?

Any thoughts an explanations would be most welcomed.

Cordelia
St. Croix, US Virgin Islands

[Gustywind]

Hello All From St. Croix, US Virgin Islands. As you can imagine, I am monitoring TS Dorian closely. Although, it appears the NHC and most reliable models forecast Dorian to go N of we, here in the USVI, until I see it's forward movement change to at least 290 degrees, I am not so sure how close he will be when he approaches our area. I have read on NHC Advisory movement at 285 degrees, but then on NRL read 280 degrees.

I believe TS Dorian is being steered along below a tropical ridge N of him, is that correct? And, if that is the case, will there be a lifting or weakening in the ridge, allowing Dorian to move N of us here?

Any thoughts an explanations would be most welcomed.

Cordelia
St. Croix, US Virgin Islands

Hi my friend, be welcomed thanks for posting that . You're right in so many points. All the Leewards islands should follow Dorian. The best to do is to continue monitor it very carefully. Concerning the ridge and all your questions go on the thread who focuse on TS Dorian. Our members will try to help you and explain much more.

Go on this link cordelia667: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115276&hilit=

[cycloneye]

Here is a video by Levi Cowan about Dorian.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... -westward/

[Gustywind]

Here is a video by Levi Cowan about Dorian.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... -westward/

Very informative as usual.

[cycloneye]

11 PM Forecast Track