ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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thundercam96
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#781 Postby thundercam96 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:12 pm

Not to be off topic, but I want to thank the regulars who take time to answer some of the amateurs questions, like my own. I will learn a lot from this forum!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#782 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:17 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#783 Postby MGC » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:20 pm

Not quite sold on an recurve east of EC. Models have a difficult time guessing the strength of the ridge. How many times over the years have we witnessed the models shift west with each run. Would not be surprized if this happens with Dorian. Just my opinion and not an official forecast....MGC
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#784 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:21 pm

Image
WPC still has Dorian in the SE Bahamas in 7 days...WNW from day 6 to 7
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html
Last edited by Blown Away on Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#785 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:22 pm

Good point, MGC. This is all too familiar to me as models shifted Westward with both Katrina and Gustav before settling on my location. I am sure that happened with other storms. Hopefully this one will be different and it will go fishing.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#786 Postby psyclone » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:26 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Bertha in 1996 would almost be a perfect analog for Dorian IMO

How many storms have formed out in this area and NOT impacted the US or the Caribbean? Certainly the vast majority. Bertha was a big time aberration. In fact, the quicker we can come up with a specific example of an impact (especially if it goes back many years) the more anomalous it probably is. Bertha represents such an example. perhaps an even more overused example in early season storms is Audrey when referencing tropical potential in June...a true freak event now more than half a century old that hasn't come close to repeating and yet the comparisons inevitably come up every year. The house odds heavily favor this system not impacting the US...it's definitely a low threat but low doesn't=no so we're tuned in...and this is a reminder that real hurricane season (August through October) is close at hand.

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#787 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:32 pm

In the scheme of things, the time of month. or where she was born has little to do with Dorians current projected path. There is a lot of uncertainty due to minute changes in shortwaves across the US. It is in that that will most likely be the cause for her hitting either the EC or fishing.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#788 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:33 pm

psyclone wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:Bertha in 1996 would almost be a perfect analog for Dorian IMO

How many storms have formed out in this area and NOT impacted the US or the Caribbean? Certainly the vast majority. Bertha was a big time aberration. In fact, the quicker we can come up with a specific example of an impact (especially if it goes back many years) the more anomalous it probably is. Bertha represents such an example. perhaps an even more overused example in early season storms is Audrey when referencing tropical potential in June...a true freak event now more than half a century old that hasn't come close to repeating and yet the comparisons inevitably come up every year. The house odds heavily favor this system not impacting the US...it's definitely a low threat but low doesn't=no so we're tuned in...and this is a reminder that real hurricane season (August through October) is close at hand.

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You can find the answer to your question here:
http://csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#

There have been 52 named storms identified within 65NM of Dorian's current location in the past, and all but 6 turned north east of the U.S. Only a single one impacted the Caribbean significantly (Galveston 1915 storm) and only 2 entered the Gulf of Mexico (1915 and the 1947 Miami hurricane). The other 4 impacted the East U.S. Coast. It's going to come down to the timing of the arrival of Dorian near the Bahamas and ridge placement to the north.
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Re:

#789 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:34 pm

BigB0882 wrote:I have no idea it will recurve but I have to think the odds are in favor of that happening. Has any storm that ever formed so far to the east so early ever managed to hit the mainland? I don't think so. Of course, the islands still need to watch very closely as does everyone else just to be safe. History says recurve but every season and every storm is different. I think we will have a much greater idea within the next 2 days.

THIS IS NOT A FORECAST.

Not saying a recurve out to sea won't happen, but to me I don't see any difference now in where it could go than if a storm developed in the same area a month or two from now. I always thought that a recurve would seem even more likely as we get later in the Cape Verde season (September) as more troughs would be present as we head into fall.
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Re:

#790 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:34 pm

meriland23 wrote:In the scheme of things, the time of month. or where she was born has little to do with Dorians current projected path. There is a lot of uncertainty due to minute changes in shortwaves across the US. It is in that that will most likely be the cause for her hitting either the EC or fishing.


You hit the nail in the coffin. :)
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Re:

#791 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:35 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Good point, MGC. This is all too familiar to me as models shifted Westward with both Katrina and Gustav before settling on my location. I am sure that happened with other storms. Hopefully this one will be different and it will go fishing.


After storms like those two, as well as Ivan and Ike, I've learned to almost always expect the cone to keep shifting west and south. With Cape Verde storms.
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#792 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:36 pm

IMO it is practically impossible to guess whether he curves or his the EC.. cause the reason for either major path differences would be small changes in the shortwaves across the US... very very small changes that are unlikely to be predicted perfectly this far out.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#793 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:38 pm

Image
00z
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#794 Postby meriland23 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:39 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image
00z



UKM.. go home.. you're drunk lol
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#795 Postby ozonepete » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:45 pm

Here's the Dvorak Intensity Numbers chart. You might want to save this for future reference. :wink:

Image
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Re: Re:

#796 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:46 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:Good point, MGC. This is all too familiar to me as models shifted Westward with both Katrina and Gustav before settling on my location. I am sure that happened with other storms. Hopefully this one will be different and it will go fishing.


After storms like those two, as well as Ivan and Ike, I've learned to almost always expect the cone to keep shifting west and south. With Cape Verde storms.


Wasn't Irene supposed to do the same thing too and it backtracked east?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#797 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:48 pm

ATCF updated the 00z Best Track intensity to 45kts.

AL, 04, 2013072500, , BEST, 0, 149N, 324W, 45, 1002, TS
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#798 Postby MGC » Wed Jul 24, 2013 9:00 pm

There sure has been a good many EC troughs this summer. Hopefully the trend will continue and make Dorian a fish.....MGC
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#799 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Jul 24, 2013 9:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:New video by Levi Cowan.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... -westward/


Thanks. I love his videos. I find it interesting that he only mentions two options, out to sea or into the East coast around the Carolinas. I find that interesting because it shows he seems pretty sure that it will eventually start recurving but the question is will it happen soon enough to miss the coast there? He doesn't seem to see any way for it to continue West into FL or into the Gulf. Not that it's impossible, but for now that doesn't seem to even be worth mentioning for him.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#800 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 24, 2013 9:13 pm

BigB0882 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:New video by Levi Cowan.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... -westward/


Thanks. I love his videos. I find it interesting that he only mentions two options, out to sea or into the East coast around the Carolinas. I find that interesting because it shows he seems pretty sure that it will eventually start recurving but the question is will it happen soon enough to miss the coast there? He doesn't seem to see any way for it to continue West into FL or into the Gulf. Not that it's impossible, but for now that doesn't seem to even be worth mentioning for him.


Florida into the GOM seems very very unlikely at this point. Its too big of a weakness for Dorian to miss on the East Coast.
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