18Z GFS Problems?

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MWatkins
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18Z GFS Problems?

#1 Postby MWatkins » Tue Sep 09, 2003 5:20 pm

First...it initializes the system as a 1008MB LOW!

What?

Then...on the NCEP site through 96 hours it doesn't even show a closed surface low and has a weak vort max at 850 MB..the position of which is well southwest of the track you have posted here.

I'm not sure which field you're ingesting to come up with the track...but the model seems all whacked out today...hard to trust a model that initializes a 948MB low 60MB too high.

MW
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#2 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Sep 09, 2003 5:23 pm

That's exactly why we shouldn't put much faith into a NYC track.
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Sorry About That! Re: 18Z GFS Problems?

#3 Postby MWatkins » Tue Sep 09, 2003 5:24 pm

MWatkins wrote:First...it initializes the system as a 1008MB LOW!

I'm not sure which field you're ingesting to come up with the track...but the model seems all whacked out today...hard to trust a model that initializes a 948MB low 60MB too high.

MW


Meant to be posted on Scott's message not as a new thread...sorry bout that.

MW
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 09, 2003 5:31 pm

MW do you want this thread deleited?
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#5 Postby ameriwx2003 » Tue Sep 09, 2003 5:49 pm

Mwatkins.. I agree the GFS has intialized way to high in regards to pressure on Izzie and it did the same thing with Fabian but here are the maps that i am getting from the 18z run

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _288.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _336.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _360.shtml
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#6 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Sep 09, 2003 6:56 pm

I agree Mike. The AVN is not be trusted.
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#7 Postby Stephanie » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:45 pm

The 336 looks more like a trough than a hurricane. The 360 however, has Isabel right over me!! :o

Fifteen days is just too long a period of time. There's no way we'll be worrying about her hitting the US anywhere for that long of a period of time!
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