ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Weaker/shallower Dorian moves faster and a stronger/deeper Dorian moves slower b/c the storm is steered at different levels...Ok, where is that line between weak/strong intensity?

[cordelia667]

Hello All From St. Croix, US Virgin Islands. As you can imagine, I am monitoring TS Dorian closely. Although, it appears the NHC and most reliable models forecast Dorian to go N of we, here in the USVI, until I see it's forward movement change to at least 290 degrees, I am not so sure how close he will be when he approaches our area. I have read on NHC Advisory movement at 285 degrees, but then on NRL read 280 degrees.

I believe TS Dorian is being steered along below a tropical ridge N of him, is that correct? And, if that is the case, will there be a lifting or weakening in the ridge, allowing Dorian to move N of us here?

Any thoughts an explanations would be most welcomed.

Cordelia Jones
St. Croix, US Virgin Islands

[ozonepete]

i dont see nhc talking about shear vat 11pm avd plus their say DORIAN may stay longer warmer water that big change at 11pm

I agree, I noticed that too. In fact, they didn't mention really any negative effects towards it.. not even dry air.. which is unusual, they usually mention that on updates.. but if it is strengthening at 120 hrs, obviously the warmer waters and other factors working to help strengthen it are overpowering the shear/dry air.. that or the things working against it are not as potent as once forecasted.... just a opinion..

You're both reading between the lines very well. All of the originally forecast detriments: shear, low SSTs and dry air, are becoming non-issues. But recall they said in the previous discussions that shear and dry air were not forecast to be as bad. That's why the 11PM discussion didn't address any of them other than to say SSTs weren't that bad after all either. What that leaves us with is that this TC has a good run at hurricane status over the next few days. Wouldn't surprise me if it happened within 24-48 hours.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

what I want to see now is the forecast position of that ridge in a week and beyond.

[tailgater]

Hello All From St. Croix, US Virgin Islands. As you can imagine, I am monitoring TS Dorian closely. Although, it appears the NHC and most reliable models forecast Dorian to go N of we, here in the USVI, until I see it's forward movement change to at least 290 degrees, I am not so sure how close he will be when he approaches our area. I have read on NHC Advisory movement at 285 degrees, but then on NRL read 280 degrees.

I believe TS Dorian is being steered along below a tropical ridge N of him, is that correct? And, if that is the case, will there be a lifting or weakening in the ridge, allowing Dorian to move N of us here?

Any thoughts an explanations would be most welcomed.

Cordelia Jones
St. Croix, US Virgin Islands

I wouldnt feel real safe till it was west of me, I thought i saw a couple of models push it a little south of west.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

Mimic shows some weaking and now starting to rebuild core.

[SFLcane]

[ozonepete]

Hello All From St. Croix, US Virgin Islands. As you can imagine, I am monitoring TS Dorian closely. Although, it appears the NHC and most reliable models forecast Dorian to go N of we, here in the USVI, until I see it's forward movement change to at least 290 degrees, I am not so sure how close he will be when he approaches our area. I have read on NHC Advisory movement at 285 degrees, but then on NRL read 280 degrees.

I believe TS Dorian is being steered along below a tropical ridge N of him, is that correct? And, if that is the case, will there be a lifting or weakening in the ridge, allowing Dorian to move N of us here?

Any thoughts an explanations would be most welcomed.

Cordelia Jones
St. Croix, US Virgin Islands

What you believe you heard is correct. But the best news for you right now is that you don't even need the ridge to weaken or lift north. The current forecast for the ridge strength (fairly strong) is still not enough to push it southward towards you. Just keep watching the NHC forecast track for the next few days. They are very good at the track forecasts.

[meriland23]

it is all about direction now. that is the only thing that is truly up in the air this far out.

[ROCK]

got to be said again, the GFS always has a right bias and under does ridging....of course it has been upgraded so who knows in this case. The EURO in the past has been left bias which over does ridging. The way its been acting this year I am having doubts with this model. Maybe the 0Z tonight can shed some light.....just my 2 cents....

[ROCK]

There is no such thing as bad data. Even if totally wrong in a predictive sense, I really want to know the variables and the path of resolution for the UMK model.

the UKM must be picking up on a frontal low coming off the EC or it initialized Dorian about 1200 miles to the NW....

BTW- Where is JEVO!!! GFS is rolling

[ROCK]

0Z GFS at 48hr

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... ort_ht.gif

[meriland23]

GFS 00Z 24hrs


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[ROCK]

Meriland.... do you want to post the GFS tonight?

[Hurricaneman]

the 0zGFS seems to have this on the northern end of the NHC cone so maybe in the end Bermuda may have to watch this

[meriland23]

GFS 00z 48hr



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[meriland23]

Meriland.... do you want to post the GFS tonight?

Sure

[JonathanBelles]

My take on the models: viewtopic.php?f=29&p=2322837#p2322837

[ROCK]

looks weaker...1012MB at 66hr....eh, I think it must be going over the cooler waters...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Good point, MGC. This is all too familiar to me as models shifted Westward with both Katrina and Gustav before settling on my location. I am sure that happened with other storms. Hopefully this one will be different and it will go fishing.

So true bigb but the way the summer pattern has been so far, with a persistent every 7-10 day east coast trough and back door cool fronts dropping down almost to our coast, chances of this storm or whatever it is in 8-10 days recurving out to sea are much greater IMO. Timing is everything of course but if you map it out, trough supposed to lift early next week with ridge building back in for 4-5 days then another trough supposed to drop down about the time Dorian is nearing the Bahamas. If its anything near as strong as the one this weekend or last, he's recurving.

[meriland23]

GFS 00z 69hr



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