ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

The ridge seems to be building a bit over Dorian at 156 but I could be misinterpreting it though

Not meaningful at all

see my post above. GFS is being changed at 12Z

[blp]

It looks like the big low southeast of greenland is a further west this run. This may squeeze the ridge to hold on further west.

[floridasun78]

I may not even pay ANY attention to the GFS

The GFS is being changed at 12Z tomorrow. Ran on the super computer with a few minor tweaks. It seems that the new GFS has an open wave, at least as of 18Z

of course, it is possible that the new GFS is a load of dung

Here are a couple of images from the new GFS

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

shows a MUCH faster track and an open wave

i dont see open wave with gfs she posting??

[BigB0882]

The ridge does seem to be building at 144 but then at 156 it is retreating. I trust GFS to about 120 hours with the ridge but after that it is just interesting to see what it does.

[meriland23]

GFS 00Z 171 HR



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[Alyono]

I may not even pay ANY attention to the GFS

The GFS is being changed at 12Z tomorrow. Ran on the super computer with a few minor tweaks. It seems that the new GFS has an open wave, at least as of 18Z

of course, it is possible that the new GFS is a load of dung

Here are a couple of images from the new GFS

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

shows a MUCH faster track and an open wave

i dont see open wave with gfs she posting??

Reread the post. This version of the GFS becomes THE GFS at 12Z tomorrow.

The new GFS at 18Z had Dorian as an open wave and moving much faster. Posting the "old" GFS really is not of any value at this point, IMO

[blp]

It is a little further west and gained a little latitude compared to 18z.

[ROCK]

0Z NAVGEM at 60hrs

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[meriland23]

Notice what is going on on the top right vs what 18z had earlier, much stronger.

[floridasun78]

ok now gfs want kill DORIAN ???? gfs cannot make his mind

[ROCK]

I may not even pay ANY attention to the GFS

The GFS is being changed at 12Z tomorrow. Ran on the super computer with a few minor tweaks. It seems that the new GFS has an open wave, at least as of 18Z

of course, it is possible that the new GFS is a load of dung

Here are a couple of images from the new GFS

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

shows a MUCH faster track and an open wave

i dont see open wave with gfs she posting??

Reread the post. This version of the GFS becomes THE GFS at 12Z tomorrow.

The new GFS at 18Z had Dorian as an open wave and moving much faster. Posting the "old" GFS really is not of any value at this point, IMO

the EURO was similar

[blp]

Ok here is a comparison:

00z 180hr


18z 186hr

[Hurricaneman]

I may not even pay ANY attention to the GFS

The GFS is being changed at 12Z tomorrow. Ran on the super computer with a few minor tweaks. It seems that the new GFS has an open wave, at least as of 18Z

of course, it is possible that the new GFS is a load of dung

Here are a couple of images from the new GFS

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

shows a MUCH faster track and an open wave

i dont see open wave with gfs she posting??

Reread the post. This version of the GFS becomes THE GFS at 12Z tomorrow.

The new GFS at 18Z had Dorian as an open wave and moving much faster. Posting the "old" GFS really is not of any value at this point, IMO

if anything the new version of the GFS has lower resolution which would make it as useful for predicting tropical genesis as the Euro

[BigB0882]

I am so confused by all this new GFS, old GFS,THE GFS. lol I'll just enjoy any and all models that someone is kind enough to post. This is the first exciting one I have had to track this year so it is all good.

[meriland23]

GFS 00Z 183HR




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GFS 18Z 189 HR (COMPARISON)



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[Alyono]

ok now gfs want kill DORIAN ???? gfs cannot make his mind

the current GFS intensifes Dorian.

As of 18Z, the old GFS was weakening the system

The new GFS at 168 hours does keep it as a closed low, albiet much weaker than what has been posted

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

[ROCK]

Not going to post the rest of the NAVGEM...its takes it straight NW starting now....fail....

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS seems similar to the 12zGFS in terms of track but the 0z is much stronger

[Alyono]

new GFS at 177

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

holding together much better this run, though quite a bit weaker

[fci]

A lot of talk about Bertha from 1996. I know it was slightly earlier in July and the only really good example of a storm that did not re-curve (at least not for the Carolinas)
However, it started much further south than Dorian.
Dorian is currently at 15.1 N and 33.2 W.
At 33.2 (actually 34.0) Bertha was at 9.8 N.
It took until 60.0 W for Bertha to reach 15.0 N
My point it that I don't think Bertha is a fair comparison to make the case that a recurve wouldn't happen. Climatologically, re-curve is the most sound prediction at this point.