ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Well meriland, you are thinking of a track similar of Bertha.

[Alyono]

Cannot figure out what the Canadian is smoking in this run. It has a decent TS striking NC this weekend (from what?), yet cannot even resolve Dorian?

[weatherwindow]

Hi All and thank you for your responses to my questions. Living on a Caribbean Island, like St Croix, is wonderful, but been through enough Hurricanes, including Katrina, that I realize, evacuation is a moot point; so I monitor TS/Hurricanes even when TSs or Lows coming off Africa. So, I have been watching TS Dorian for some time. I too read NHC's 11 pm advisory that SSTs were actually getting warmer in Dorian's path and that due to his forward speed, he would not pull up cooler waters. Now that you all mention it, do not remember anything that would be hostile to Dorian, as he moves WNW towards my direction.

Question: If Dorian maintains his 285 degrees direction, would that not put him basically through us here in STX (St. Croix) or USVI? I would feel better if his forward movement was at least 290 or 295 degrees.

Cordelia (St Croix, USVI)

Good morning, Cordelia...You have probably already been steered to this site..but if not they have a helpful calculator, "how close can it get". Note, with its current llpm forecast track, Dorian's closest approach is 186mi to your north. Also note, that, given the projected course, 285deg is as far north of west as Dorian ventures, as it approaches the Leewards. As the ridge builds thereafter, the track flattens, ie veers to virtually due west or 270, possibly 275deg, prior to possible recurvature(uncertain) approaching 70-75deg W longitude. If Dorian maintained 285deg, it would pass much further north of St Croix than the current forecast track suggests...Does that answer your question? welcome to the board. Grtz from Key West, Rich

http://stormcarib.com/closest.cgi

[chaser1]

Cannot figure out what the Canadian is smoking in this run. It has a decent TS striking NC this weekend (from what?), yet cannot even resolve Dorian?

True, yet all that I can say is that from the CMC...such is what we'd expect. But the Euro????At least as of the 12Z run, the Euro's resolution practically lost any concept of Dorian. At lease the CMC maintained Dorian with "some" identity. This is not to say that the Euro couldn't be spot on with regard to eventual decoupling due to downstream shear, but seems quite a contradiction in comparison to the recently Newer, um... previously old GFS

Will be interesting to see the new 0Z Euro run. Regardless of ultimate track into Gulf, to Florida coastline, or re-curvature in the Bahamas, I think a foreboding cue can continue to be drawn by the same recurring persistence of more westward building mid level ridging, continued dynamic improvement of each subsequent tropical cyclone, a seemingly ripe quasi-monsoonal low birthing grounds that is continuing to be evident on longer range GFS upper air charts, and a shallow long wave pattern that exhibits a vacillating weakness just west of the Atlantic seaboard rather than off shore East of the Conus. All of this would seem to spell for some pretty significant close calls for the Antilles, Bahamas and Southeast Conus. Where I am a little surprised however, are the lack of lower latitude Caribbean tracks that I was also anticipating to see. Perhaps yet to come?

[Hammy]

Not sure where to find the best track chart, but Tropical Atlantic has Dorian at 50kts/999mb at 06z.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Not sure where to find the best track chart, but Tropical Atlantic has Dorian at 50kts/999mb at 06z.

Here it is. http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

AL, 04, 2013072506, , BEST, 0, 154N, 337W, 50, 999, TS

[chaser1]

By the way....., just took a quick look at the latest 0Z Euro and this much is quite evident. Either Dorian will soon get "clocked in the head" by upper level shear (that GFS does not see), or that the mighty Euro might just need to get re-engineered perhaps as a Calorie Counting App marketed to those who watch the Food Channel

[Aric Dunn]

For real what is the deal with this 3 hour floater crap.. anyone know who too contact about getting it fixed ?

[Hurricane Alexis]

For real what is the deal with this 3 hour floater crap.. anyone know who too contact about getting it fixed ?

Yea it's also annoying me. I guess we just have to look at the wide view of the atlantic for now.

[chaser1]

Nonetheless, Dorian is looking better and better. My guess based on its satellite signature would be nearing 60 knots.

[meriland23]

By the way....., just took a quick look at the latest 0Z Euro and this much is quite evident. Either Dorian will soon get "clocked in the head" by upper level shear (that GFS does not see), or that the mighty Euro might just need to get re-engineered perhaps as a Calorie Counting App marketed to those who watch the Food Channel

Mmm .. chicken sandwich..

[chaser1]

the mighty Euro might just need to get re-engineered perhaps as a Calorie Counting App marketed to those who watch the Food Channel

Mmm .. chicken sandwich..

yeah, that does sound good. Hmmm, the fancy kind with raisins and walnuts, or just with celery and mayo? Either way, i'm sure the Euro could "get THAT right" LOL

[GlennOBX]

This is just a rough idea of what I think might happen.. it is just a opinion.. not a forecast.

I understand the graphic is not a forecast. Just thought I'd get that out of the way.

However, speaking as a resident of the Outer Banks, I quote Bill Dana:

"Oh, I hope not"

[GlennOBX]

the mighty Euro might just need to get re-engineered perhaps as a Calorie Counting App marketed to those who watch the Food Channel

Mmm .. chicken sandwich..

yeah, that does sound good. Hmmm, the fancy kind with raisins and walnuts, or just with celery and mayo? Either way, i'm sure the Euro could "get THAT right" LOL

forget the sandwich. put some kind of dry rub on the chicken and grill it, or possible grill it (whole chicken in this case) using the "beer butt chicken" method. no, I'm not kidding.

[meriland23]

Sounds delicious, but I think chicken sandwich is a lot safer, wouldn't trust the EURO with a grill, might char and burn the chicken haha

[meriland23]

From the NHC.. 5 am update

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 AM AST THU JUL 25 2013

DORIAN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH
STRONGER CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER. A RECENT AMSU
OVERPASS SHOWED A MID-LEVEL EYE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH IT WAS UNCLEAR IF THIS FEATURE WAS DIRECTLY OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB
AND 45 KT FROM TAFB...AND A RECENT AMSU-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM CIMSS WAS 48 KT. BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15. DORIAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...DORIAN SHOULD
APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A DECREASED FORWARD SPEED. THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NORTH SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. BASED ON THIS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH...BUT IT LIES SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLEX AND OF LOW CONFIDENCE. DORIAN
SHOULD MOVE OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS...BUT DURING THIS TIME IT ALSO MAY ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECASTS FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT BETWEEN 72-120 HOURS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITIES RANGING FROM CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
TO SHEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DORIAN TO WEAKEN. OVERALL...THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND THUS THE NEW FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL AND IS STRONGER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

[AJC3]

For real what is the deal with this 3 hour floater crap.. anyone know who too contact about getting it fixed ?

Try Tropical RAMSDIS online...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

[meriland23]

Dorian now 60 mph on nhc

[Extratropical94]

The forward motion has dropped to 17 mph from 20 and we can see a stronger northerly component as he is now headed for 290 degs (last advisory had 285 degs)

...DORIAN STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 34.5W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[meriland23]

Is recon going to fly in there at some point?