ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Extratropical94
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#941 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Jul 25, 2013 3:52 am

meriland23 wrote:Is recon going to fly in there at some point?

There are no scheduled missions at the moment, but they're going to fly into Dorian as soon as he comes close to the NE Caribbean islands.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 241158
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0800 AM EDT WED 24 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JULY 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-054

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#942 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:06 am

06z models hinting at a recurve scenario over the bahamas.

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#943 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:11 am

Yeah, there is a hint there on the model plots, but certainly enough uncertainty with regards to the track at this stage to have any sorts of confidence.

There is enough agreement in the models to at least suggest the Bahamas might be a real possibility.
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#944 Postby Alyono » Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:13 am

How many systems undergo a share recurve in the Bahamas?

Not many
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#945 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:17 am

Yeah we will almost certainly see some recon on Dorian at some point in the near future given the W/WNW track towards 60/20.

Interesting little system, quite small and it does seem to be wrapping up fairly nicely at the moment.
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ATL: DORIAN - Models

#946 Postby meriland23 » Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:24 am

Nice convection goin..

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#947 Postby meriland23 » Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:27 am

(going to post new GFS despite people giving me guff about new model systems at 12z.. it is still a new run)

New GFS 06z

hr 3

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#948 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:29 am

Yeah the models might be a little sharp, its interesting to see there is a little cluster of GFS ensemble members that recurve in the same spot though.
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#949 Postby GlennOBX » Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:33 am

A couple of questions, sorry to be a bit off topic.

Is there a forum on the site that is used to report conditions etc. as a named storm affects a location?

Also, I'm learning a lot on the discussion and model forums, but I sometimes have questions about terminology, the models and other things. Is there a particular forum I should use on the site to ask those questions?

Thanks
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#950 Postby meriland23 » Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:36 am

GFS 06Z

HR 24Image

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Re:

#951 Postby KBBOCA » Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:42 am

GlennOBX wrote:A couple of questions, sorry to be a bit off topic.

Is there a forum on the site that is used to report conditions etc. as a named storm affects a location?

Also, I'm learning a lot on the discussion and model forums, but I sometimes have questions about terminology, the models and other things. Is there a particular forum I should use on the site to ask those questions?

Thanks


Glenn, welcome to Storm 2K, it's a great site for all of us Trop. weather enthusiasts.
Normally once watches or warnings are up for a location, there will be a separate thread created here in the Active Storms forum, where people can post news (e.g. evacuation details) links to useful sites (radars, webcams...) and then also observations.

Don't hesitate to ask questions. People here are very friendly & helpful, and there are some folks with amazing knowledge too.
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#952 Postby meriland23 » Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:44 am

GFS 06Z

HR 48

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#953 Postby meriland23 » Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:53 am

GFS 06Z

HR 72

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#954 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:53 am

I notice when I'm not following a TC, it tends to do quite well...that might be why Dorian is doing amazingly good :) :lol: . If I stop watching, we'll have a monster in no time.

Dorian is the best looking tropical cyclone thus far of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season and should become the strongest very soon. I wouldn't forecast it to become 55 knots 72 hours from now...does anyone think it will take that long for another 5 knots? Maybe 6 hours...

IMO its 55 knots currently.

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#955 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:58 am

Looks like it is still tracking WNW roughly on the GFS through to 72hrs, looks like its heading into the higher shear region, so lets see what the GFS does from now on.
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#956 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:59 am

Yeah Dorian does look like its a little stronger than the 50kts its been given right now, I'd imagine if recon were in there they'd find 55-60kts.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#957 Postby beoumont » Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:03 am

Gooood morning Dorian. Fired up? Ready to go?

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Last edited by beoumont on Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#958 Postby meriland23 » Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:04 am

GFS 06Z

HR 96

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#959 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:06 am

Gotta say that really does look like its getting closer to becoming a hurricane...good looking system that's for sure.
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#960 Postby meriland23 » Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:08 am

It is quite a bit further south than 00z
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