ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland23]

GFS 06z

HR 120



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[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 AM AST THU JUL 25 2013

...DORIAN STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 34.5W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.5 WEST. DORIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 AM AST THU JUL 25 2013

DORIAN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH
STRONGER CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER. A RECENT AMSU
OVERPASS SHOWED A MID-LEVEL EYE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH IT WAS UNCLEAR IF THIS FEATURE WAS DIRECTLY OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB
AND 45 KT FROM TAFB...AND A RECENT AMSU-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM CIMSS WAS 48 KT. BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15. DORIAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...DORIAN SHOULD
APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A DECREASED FORWARD SPEED. THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NORTH SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. BASED ON THIS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH...BUT IT LIES SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLEX AND OF LOW CONFIDENCE. DORIAN
SHOULD MOVE OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS...BUT DURING THIS TIME IT ALSO MAY ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECASTS FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT BETWEEN 72-120 HOURS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITIES RANGING FROM CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
TO SHEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DORIAN TO WEAKEN. OVERALL...THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND THUS THE NEW FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL AND IS STRONGER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 15.6N 34.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 16.3N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 17.0N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 17.8N 44.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 18.3N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 19.5N 55.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 20.5N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 21.5N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[meriland23]

GFS 06Z

HR 144



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[SFLcane]

Further south on this 06z run

[crownweather]

It is quite a bit further south than 00z

Interesting the WSW and even SW motion that the GFS forecasts as it passes just north of the Leeward Islands on Sun night/Mon. Not out of the range of possibilities as the influence of land (Puerto Rico) tries to pull the circulation towards the island.

[Hurricane Alexis]

With a track that south it might have a chance to move in towards the Gulf, correct?

[KWT]

Gosh that 06z GFS run is much further south, quite a few of the Caribbean islands would feel at least some effects from Dorian, be it rain or wind.

[meriland23]

it is much weaker than 00z, but track is totally different... it is missing the big island s by the skin of their teeth

[meriland23]

GFS 06Z

hr 168



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[cycloneye]

Nice convection goin..

http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/4891/kzk.gif

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I really didn't thought that it would be this good where it is now with not too warm sst's and dry air around. In other words Is a pesky storm.

[meriland23]

GFS 06z

hr 192



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[meriland23]

hr 228



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[meriland23]

06z GFS is completely bonkers.. doesn't even really recurve.. rides up along side the northern part of the major island's and then hits SE FL and just continues to move NW

[N2FSU]

Yep, no recurve on the 06Z GFS.

[meriland23]

hr 300 (now into gulf... ??)



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[Alyono]

The new GFS remains east of Florida

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

remember, the 6Z run was the final run of the current GFS. The new GFS is now the operational GFS effective 12Z

[meriland23]

hr 336 .. over GA..



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Well that is enough of that madness!

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS; 204hr

[N2FSU]

Gulf bound?

[AdamFirst]

The new GFS remains east of Florida

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

remember, the 6Z run was the final run of the current GFS. The new GFS is now the operational GFS effective 12Z

New or old, still a pretty close shave regardless.