ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Looks like some weakening might occur in the short term.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html
Structure still looks good but he might be sucking in some drier stable air.

Also,some cooler sst's that he is traversing thru today but by tonight he will reach warmer sst's.

[KWT]

Looks like some weakening might occur in the short term.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html
Structure still looks good but he might be sucking in some drier stable air.

Convection is weakening and there is more dry air around, though the weakening convection maybe as much a factor of D-min coming up and the cooler SSTs its currently heading through.

[ROCK]

quote="Blown Away"]

06z GFS...Landfall SFL
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

how many times have we been hit on model runs, wilma 2005 last time we were actually hit and that was from the west of all places..one of these days though.. BAM POW SMACKED...

I think it's a conspiracy to increase the browsing numbers on this board, now all those GOMER people will start hanging around... [/quote]rock will be on full alert if we can get this thing past 80w on a run today...


Sent from my MB886 using Tapatalk 2[/quote]

catching up on model runs....but not out of the question....

[otowntiger]

A little climo from the Coastal Services Center website. Question - how many storms of the past which passed within 65NM of Dorian's current position reached the Caribbean or the Gulf? Answer - zero. A recurve near the Bahamas looks most likely, but I'd pay close attention in Florida. My money currently is on the Carolinas.

I agree with this generally except I think it may even miss the Bahamas, but I'm no professional - just looking at your climo summary based on its high latitude and what storms usually do.

BTW, somewhat off topic, why do we call it "re-curve"? Why not just 'curve'? To me 're-curve' would imply that it will curve again. I know what is meant by the term just don't know why that term is used to describe a storm that will turn out to sea before threatening land.

[KWT]

More GFS ensembles members continue to shift westward ever since yesterday's 12z run.

I'm not all that surprised by this, because the 06z GFS was further west anyway and the ensembles tend to follow the GFS op run.

[northjaxpro]

I am totally with you on that regarding the use of the word recurve. I always say curve.

[ROCK]

06Z NAVGEM pulling an IKE like track....diving big time SW.....then ends up heading to the keys.....might be GOM bound if it went out further...big change from the 0Z


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


full alert now!

[Blown Away]

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DORIAN AL042013 07/25/13 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
SHEAR (KT) 5 0 5 8 11 9 9 9 12 15 16 23 25

12z shear down from 33kt's at 120 hours...

[Bocadude85]

A little climo from the Coastal Services Center website. Question - how many storms of the past which passed within 65NM of Dorian's current position reached the Caribbean or the Gulf? Answer - zero. A recurve near the Bahamas looks most likely, but I'd pay close attention in Florida. My money currently is on the Carolinas.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dorianclimo.gif

Though I personally think Dorian will miss Florida to the east it sounds like your not so sure?

[ROCK]

I dont get CLIMO and if I did I would be following the CLIPER.

[RL3AO]

[img]http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/3506/bj7i.jpg[ /img]
12z...Tightly clustered
[img]http://img593.imageshack.us/img593/555/xteu.jpg[ /img]
12z Intensity Models...Most keep Dorian as a TS, doesn't appear like a scenerio for a big Cane...

Remember those are mostly the 6z runs interpolated six hours. The 12z globals aren't out yet.

[wxman57]

A little climo from the Coastal Services Center website. Question - how many storms of the past which passed within 65NM of Dorian's current position reached the Caribbean or the Gulf? Answer - zero. A recurve near the Bahamas looks most likely, but I'd pay close attention in Florida. My money currently is on the Carolinas.

I agree with this generally except I think it may even miss the Bahamas, but I'm no professional - just looking at your climo summary based on its high latitude and what storms usually do.

BTW, somewhat off topic, why do we call it "re-curve"? Why not just 'curve'? To me 're-curve' would imply that it will curve again. I know what is meant by the term just don't know why that term is used to describe a storm that will turn out to sea before threatening land.

I said it would likely recurve near the Bahams, not necessarily in the Bahamas. The word "recurve" means to bend back/backwards, implying that not only will Dorian curve northward but will curve so much that it goes backwards in longitude.

[KWT]

The climo is interesting, though how much we can read into it I'm not sure. I think as Wxman57 said the Caribbean should be out of the main danger zone, but anywhere from the Bahamas onwards down the east coast (including Florida) is going to need to watch out.

I suspect this will still be trucking WNW/NW by the time it reaches 75W.

[wxman57]

A little climo from the Coastal Services Center website. Question - how many storms of the past which passed within 65NM of Dorian's current position reached the Caribbean or the Gulf? Answer - zero. A recurve near the Bahamas looks most likely, but I'd pay close attention in Florida. My money currently is on the Carolinas.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dorianclimo.gif

Though I personally think Dorian will miss Florida to the east it sounds like your not so sure?

Of course I'm not sure. It's 7-8 days away and everything depends on a number of variables of which we're uncertain.

[KWT]

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DORIAN AL042013 07/25/13 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
SHEAR (KT) 5 0 5 8 11 9 9 9 12 15 16 23 25

12z shear down from 33kt's at 120 hours...

Yeah, those SHIPS forecasts are not exactly reliable at the best of times that far out!

There is a trend for a region of higher shear to be present by 120hrs, but we'll see!

[abajan]

:uarrow: I am totally with you on that regarding the use of the word recurve. I always say curve.

I think it's a matter of degree. "Curve" is when the just bends but "recurve" is when it bends so much that it points almost in the opposite direction. lol (Then again they may mean the same thing. Something like flammable vs inflammable.)

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: I am totally with you on that regarding the use of the word recurve. I always say curve.

I think it's a matter of degree. "Curve" is when the just bends but "recurve" is when it bends so much that it points almost in the opposite direction. lol (Then again they may mean the same thing. Something like flammable vs inflammable.)

I agree with you. A true recurve for me is when a tropical cyclone bends back to the east sharply in the opposite direction, which we often see tropical cyclones do when they go around the full periphery of the ridge in the Atlantic.

[N2FSU]

N2FSU.. look at hr 300

Thanks Meriland, I didn't look that far before I had to leave!

[tolakram]

Dorian is now crossing into some slightly warmer waters, according to the SST overlay.

[blp]

IKE comes to mind. It did not follow climo at all. Yes it formed further west than our current system but look how it entered the Cuban coast after reaching 23N 60W and then the Gulf. That was an unusual track and it went from 35W to 95W. I am not saying that will happen now just pointing it out.