ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

A post earlier today from Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan on Twitter:

"Dorian probably doesn't have the 60mph winds NHC is giving it, but it's surviving the coldest water of its life today. SSTs warm after today."
@ 9:12am 7/25/13

[Aric Dunn]

good discussion...

"AFTER A BRIEF DISRUPTION IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...DORIAN HAS MADE A COMEBACK WITH A BURST OF
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN ADDITION...A 1728Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED A
NEARLY CLOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE HAD DEVELOPED BENEATH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
EYE FEATURE. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT
AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND AN EARLIER ASCAT-B
OVERPASS AT 1230Z INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 48 KT NORTH
OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY."

wow, an eye? Hmmm, how is this going to ffect the islands?

only in the low to mid level.. its not fully vertically stacked atm.. it the convection can maintain than we may see a stronger mid level circ

[SouthFLTropics]

So ...fci ..... what would you like your "new" name to be?? ...... j/k

Walter White or Heisenberg.

How about Carlos Danger??? LOL

In all seriousness, it will be very interesting to see how the models play out over the course of the next week. I'm looking forward to tonights runs to see if the south and west trend continues.

SFT

[artist]

latest Dvorak image -

[torrea40]

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST BY LATE FRIDAY.

[BigB0882]

I spy Texas in the latest model map with some GFS ensembles heading in that direction.....hmmm...if a GOM solution verified then CLIMO huggers are going to go into hiding....

I asked a local pro-met (SE Texas) about this today - how there's so much recurve chatter and supposed model guidance to suggest it, yet it hasn't shown up in the track yet. I said it looks like it's going to the Gulf - to me - and he agreed.

However, he said there's high pressure over Texas and he doesn't see it being an issue for us 'at this time'.

That said, can someone point out this H he's talking about over Texas? Thanks in advance.

no need to worry about something 10 days away....there might not be much left after the islands anyway. The EURO and more globals are really weakening it as it approaches the islands.

Many of the models also had it very weak at this moment in time but here it is, a decent tropical storm despite the fact that some models couldn't even predict it would form into anything at all. Intensity forecasting is just for entertainment, IMO. I am not sure the models can be trusted much beyond 2-3 days out, if even that. The overall setup and steering is what we should focus on, IMO.

[ROCK]

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

some 18Z models.....sniffing FL and or GOM...

[artist]

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2013/al042013/track_early/aal04_2013072518_track_early.png

here is that saved image -

[cycloneye]

Off-Topic=NHC has great news about one of their products. See the news here

[fci]

More climo fun from Coastal Services Center. I plotted all storms which passed within 150NM (about 180 miles) from Dorian's current point. 93 such storms were found. Of those, only 2 entered the Gulf - Ike (2008) and the 1915 Galveston hurricane. From this, we can conclude that:

There is about a 2.15% chance that Dorian will enter the Gulf. However, if it does enter the Gulf, there is a 100% chance it will hit Houston/Galveston!

I learned with Ike that the legends make their own way and write their own unique story and you can throw the climo and statistics out the window! Never in a million years did I think Ike jumps over 20N/60W and find its way to GOM and especially Texas!!

Sure, and lightning can strike the same exact spots multiple times. But it doesn't.
Ike was an anomaly. Crossing Cuba from the Northeast???? Yes, we were in the crosshairs in SE Florida and escaped as the storm unexpectedly veered through Cuba, a rather unprecedented move.
Yes, on the rarest, rarest of occasions you can throw the climo and stats out the window.
But remember; where do the climo and stats come from? From the same thing happening over and over and over again.
I'll stick with what happens about 98% of time and I will be correct about 98% of the time. I like those odds...

[caribepr]

good discussion...

"AFTER A BRIEF DISRUPTION IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...DORIAN HAS MADE A COMEBACK WITH A BURST OF
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN ADDITION...A 1728Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED A
NEARLY CLOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE HAD DEVELOPED BENEATH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
EYE FEATURE. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT
AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND AN EARLIER ASCAT-B
OVERPASS AT 1230Z INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 48 KT NORTH
OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY."

wow, an eye? Hmmm, how is this going to ffect the islands?

That's what we'd like to know

[BigB0882]

Things are definitely getting interesting. Tomorrow will tell if today was just one of the back and forth "windshield wiper" days or if this is really something to take seriously.

[ROCK]

Man its that 2% that gets us every time....

[Canelaw99]

I would feel much better if those models were that tightly clustered curving, NOT heading west.

OT: Thanks for all the insight, model posting, analysis, etc. you all do. I'm frequently on my phone, not signed in, so I don't post often, but you guys all get me through the hurricane season.

[Blown Away]

I would feel much better if those models were that tightly clustered curving, NOT heading west.

OT: Thanks for all the insight, model posting, analysis, etc. you all do. I'm frequently on my phone, not signed in, so I don't post often, but you guys all get me through the hurricane season.

If the models continue at WNW to 75W and then begins a recurve it will be a difficult for Dorian to miss SFL IMO...

[TheStormExpert]

I agree with the view that climatology strongly argues against a Gulf hit, much less a FL one, given the latitude at which Dorian started his trans-Atlantic trek. But boy is that ever a solid model consensus for a W to WNW move for the next five days! Can always change this far out, but if I don't see much of a northward hook at the end of these forecasts by, say, Saturday morning, I'll be getting more concerned here in FL.

What makes it even more concerning is FL has been spared from any major storm hits for about 8 years now! The pattern that has also been in place since late Spring is another variable too. I live about 7-8 miles south of Jupiter, FL so I know what it's like to be watching these storms over the years cut it close the E. coast of FL before making there turn. (Ie. Irene, Sandy)

[RL3AO]

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS..........................(OUTLOOK CHANGED)
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV SURVEILLANCE
MISSION AROUND TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FOR 28/0000Z.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES FOR TROPICAL
STORM DORIAN AT 28/1200Z NEAR 19.8N 57.0W.

[chaser1]

More climo fun from Coastal Services Center. I plotted all storms which passed within 150NM (about 180 miles) from Dorian's current point. 93 such storms were found. Of those, only 2 entered the Gulf - Ike (2008) and the 1915 Galveston hurricane. From this, we can conclude that:

There is about a 2.15% chance that Dorian will enter the Gulf. However, if it does enter the Gulf, there is a 100% chance it will hit Houston/Galveston!

About the odd's of hitting the Houston/Galveston area...thats funny!

Per that map/climo research you posted, will be interesting to see which past years' tracks re-curve at the closest point to Dorian (unless he weakens), just as an unofficial analogue to how those seasons' other storm tracks played out & might have compared to what we've yet to see. Also would be curious if you conducted your same search, however limited those comparable tracks to those storms that formed either in June/July..... or perhaps those that formed either 2 weeks before or after Dorian formed.

Quick random note - Dorion is two days old. There were three prior named storms this year (well, that's debatable ) and if I'm not mistaken...., wasn't the "life-span" of each of those prior storms all - 3 days? Will be interesting to see if Dorian has what it takes to be still hanging around on Saturday

[SouthFLTropics]

I would feel much better if those models were that tightly clustered curving, NOT heading west.

OT: Thanks for all the insight, model posting, analysis, etc. you all do. I'm frequently on my phone, not signed in, so I don't post often, but you guys all get me through the hurricane season.

If the models continue at WNW to 75W and then begins a recurve it will be a difficult for Dorian to miss SFL IMO...

It might be difficult but it is definitely possible...Hurricane Floyd in 99' comes to mind. Made it to our doorstep and then hooked right and slammed the Outer Banks.

SFT

[TheStormExpert]

More climo fun from Coastal Services Center. I plotted all storms which passed within 150NM (about 180 miles) from Dorian's current point. 93 such storms were found. Of those, only 2 entered the Gulf - Ike (2008) and the 1915 Galveston hurricane. From this, we can conclude that:

There is about a 2.15% chance that Dorian will enter the Gulf. However, if it does enter the Gulf, there is a 100% chance it will hit Houston/Galveston!

I learned with Ike that the legends make their own way and write their own unique story and you can throw the climo and statistics out the window! Never in a million years did I think Ike jumps over 20N/60W and find its way to GOM and especially Texas!!

Sure, and lightning can strike the same exact spots multiple times. But it doesn't.
Ike was an anomaly. Crossing Cuba from the Northeast???? Yes, we were in the crosshairs in SE Florida and escaped as the storm unexpectedly veered through Cuba, a rather unprecedented move.
Yes, on the rarest, rarest of occasions you can throw the climo and stats out the window.
But remember; where do the climo and stats come from? From the same thing happening over and over and over again.
I'll stick with what happens about 98% of time and I will be correct about 98% of the time. I like those odds...

Climatology would of favored a recurve for Ike over what crazy track it took knowing how far north it got in latitude north of the NE Caribbean.