ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

00z TONIGHT...


00z LAST NIGHT...

[ozonepete]

To throw in my two cents, if it is detaching from the ITCZ, I assume this could potentially cause a temporary reduction in convective intensity as its shedding a source of energy, similar to how many convection-heavy subtropical cyclones seem to flare down in convection as they separate from the frontal system before strengthening.

Yeah, that's right. Actually a really good and clear explanation. You can finish my thoughts any time since that's what I was going to say. in this case today with Dorian there is now a loss of a very rich, moist tropical air inflow; that can cause temporary interruptions in the convection. But it seems to be adjusting well. Here's two rgb satellite images from 12:45 EDt today and then a little while ago at 7:45 PM. You can see the detaching and also see that Dorian actually looks a little more healthy with more convection in the more recent image.

[OuterBanker]

Countless "It's dead Jim" to start. Sure enough all the models have dropped it. Even the usually over zealous CMC only has a small refection in the GOM. GFS kills it on Haiti, etc. I don't think Dorian will revert to a depression.

I think it will die of depression because of lack of support

[Blown Away]

How does the NHC handle the 00z models? Remember when the GFS left turned Chantal into the Florida coast run after run and the NHC didn't bite. Will they continue to discount the GFS diving into Hispaniola? This board overreacts and so do I!!

[hurricanekid416]

Why does the nhc never say a storm has 55mph winds

[SFLcane]

18z ensembles now south of florida..not much to speak of if these pan out

[Aric Dunn]

it looks like its starting to out run the the convection again.

[northjaxpro]

DecomDoug, now lwt's not get to far out there yet. We have a long way out yet before we even start mentioning Bones LOL.. Come on people.

That was my dry attempt at humor, not a serious conjecture.

I know Decomdoug. I mentioned this earlier today and I will state again that tiny systems like Dorian can be extremely difficult to forecast. Dorian just may be one of these type of systems that will defy the surroundings around him and maintain on his trek across the Atlantic. I agree with wxman57 in that if Dorian can survive the next
3 to 4 days, I think the environment will be conducive for strengthening once the cy lone gets pass 70 degrees Longitude. Of course, that is provided if Dorian will stay north of the Caribbean islands by Monday.

[SunnyThoughts]

How does the NHC handle the 00z models? Remember when the GFS left turned Chantal into the Florida coast run after run and the NHC didn't bite. Will they continue to discount the GFS diving into Hispaniola? This board overreacts and so do I!!

Lol I agree, folks jump on each model run, and each frame of satellite and say " Oh its dying" or "Oh it looks good considering" haha Thats why I love this place. Nobody KNOWS what is in store the next week or so...and we won't know until it actually happens, could lose everything and open up to a wave...could end up being a cane. All I know is as long as I've been on this board...the Mets have always said...don't take the models verbatim...pay attention to the TRENDS... " The trend is your friend" was a statement made by a met who use to visit this site all the time...I'm quite sure some of you long time posters know who I'm speaking of lol.

[Steve H.]

Oh please. It is still far out in the Atlantic. I think it should survive quite well in it's venture.

[Aric Dunn]

18z guidance almost all showing and due west turn now.

[HURAKAN]

Why does the nhc never say a storm has 55mph winds

Because the intensity is given at a 5 kt increment

45 kt = 50 mph

50 kt = 60 mph

[OuterBanker]

Because storms are over water in which distance is measured in knots (nautical miles) not land based miles.

[ozonepete]

it looks like its starting to out run the the convection again.

Hmmm. We almost always agree but I don't see it this time, Aric.

[torrea40]

18z guidance almost all showing and due west turn now.

[meriland23]

If this thing starts getting fired up again, because of its obviously slow down in strength, makes it more susceptible to going to the GOM.. which.. would be kind of scary.. or could be. Dorian might be one of those rollercoaters of a system.

[SFLcane]

Its in for some battle over night

[HouTXmetro]

Caribbean Cruiser?

[meriland23]

Its in for some battle over night

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... ry/wv0.jpg

It is already in battle, don't know if it could deal with more battle lol

[Blown Away]

Dorian still over very marginal SST's and these temps are going to start to improve very soon. I don't expect a marginal TS to look much better than Dorian does now...