ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

If Dorian can hang around for the next few days, than things look to get "jiggy" for those in the Western and Northern Gulf. Surprisingly the GFS 200mb indicates that Dorian might have a more centered upper anticyclone parked over itself in 96-102 hours

[Blown Away]

Amazed how many systems in recent years have been affected by Hispaniola...

[Annie Oakley]

New Blog Post: viewtopic.php?p=2323547#p2323547

Jonathan-big fan of your blogs....
That one is right on target.

Now, if only I could minimize the pop-up window:Follow “Eye on Weather”...

Looking forward to more synopses and especially your experiences with the HH.

Thanks so much for being here!

[ROCK]

Yucatan channel might be in the cards....this seems very IKE-ISH for sure....

[Riptide]

Amazed how many systems in recent years have been affected by Hispaniola...

While the track is not set in stone at this point, the southward tracks are gaining more steam. It remains to be seen if this is an artifact of the new GFS or a legitimate shift in the synoptic setup.

[South Texas Storms]

Agreed Rock. The west shift looks to continue this run.

135 hrs approaching Jamaica.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_44.png

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Where are you Dorian?


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[Hurricaneman]

If this run came to pass this could be dangerous for those in the northern Gulf in 8 to 10 days

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[ROCK]

NHC will have to shift some if the EURO follows suite tonight....

[LaBreeze]

If Dorian can hang around for the next few days, than things look to get "jiggy" for those in the Western and Northern Gulf. Surprisingly the GFS 200mb indicates that Dorian might have a more centered upper anticyclone parked over itself in 96-102 hours

Chaser, don't even joke about that - No "jiggy" over here please.

[chaser1]

Amazed how many systems in recent years have been affected by Hispaniola...

While the track is not set in stone at this point, the southward tracks are gaining more steam. It remains to be seen if this is an artifact of the new GFS or a legitimate shift in the synoptic setup.

I'd guess this has little or nothing to do with the GFS modeling system and more to do with the orientation of the strong high to Dorian's north and that it may be a more shallow system which is just getting "shunted" more southward.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

There he is



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[Riptide]

Amazed how many systems in recent years have been affected by Hispaniola...

While the track is not set in stone at this point, the southward tracks are gaining more steam. It remains to be seen if this is an artifact of the new GFS or a legitimate shift in the synoptic setup.

I'd guess this has little or nothing to do with the GFS modeling system and more to do with the orientation of the strong high to Dorian's north and that it may be a more shallow system which is just getting "shunted" more southward.

Interesting to note that the Euro had a weaker Dorian than the GFS and still ended up in the Southern Bahamas. Clearly there are modeling differences.

[LaBreeze]

Still lots of time for things to evolve folks. I am certain more fluctuations and windshield-wipering from the models are still to come.

However, I will say that if Dorian can somehow hold together and survive over these next several days, the curving poleward scenario looks to be decreasing as time progresses. Should the strength of that ridge verify, I don't foresee any curve northward down the road.

Do you hear that "Houston" I thought I heard that lightning can strike twice!

I certainly hope not

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

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[Wx_Warrior]

Per JB:

"THIRD straight run west into PR and Cane Killer Hispaniola by GFS! This will be a great coup if correct ( I still dont believe it)"

[chaser1]

If Dorian can hang around for the next few days, than things look to get "jiggy" for those in the Western and Northern Gulf. Surprisingly the GFS 200mb indicates that Dorian might have a more centered upper anticyclone parked over itself in 96-102 hours

Chaser, don't even joke about that - No "jiggy" over here please.

Well if it makes you feel any better..., I wouldn't be betting on a N. Gulf Coast shot; Not unless there were a digging Plains trough around that time. More than likely I would guess Dorian to remain well south of bridging mid level high pressure cells and possibly just keep on headin' west. That's too downstream to really look at though. I'm personally in the camp that doesn't believe that Dorian will remain a viable tropical cyclone by the time it reaches 60W.

[RL3AO]

Not sure if I see the GOM on this. If it misses the first weakness, I bet it just goes straight west into the Yucatan if it even survives the Caribbean.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Approaching the Yucatan peninsula


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[ROCK]

Per JB:

"THIRD straight run west into PR and Cane Killer Hispaniola by GFS! This will be a great coup if correct ( I still dont believe it)"

the EURO tonight will set things straight...