ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

this is going further and further south, if it doesn't hit those islands next run I would expect it not to fade away..

Not sure that the Islands are the only reason some models see this going away.

Agree...you might not have to go into hiding after all....lol but I think we are getting close to saying it ain't recurring per CLIMO...

[bahamaswx]

This is random, but I was just thinking (and subsequently made a map of what it would look like) could you imagine what would happen during hurricane season if these islands were missing?

[img]http://i42.tinypic.com/2uf6amw.jpg[img]

Probably the same thing as what would happen if just Hispaniola and Cuba were missing.

[fci]

Do I have to go into hiding if a naked swirl gets into the GOM?

[BrandonFSC]

My current thoughts. If Dorian manages to play a more NW track overall it would be beneficial.

[meriland23]

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[meriland23]

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[Hurricane Alexis]

Ridge expected to build back into central florida per the miami nws.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVER THE AREA...

[BigB0882]

That satellite image is not looking so great. It needs to regroup and try again tomorrow.

[Alyono]

Dorian is in MAJOR trouble now

Convective pattern needs to improve or else this will revert back to a wave. Perhaps the new GFS is better than the old one

[Hurricane Alexis]

Might as well just call it tropical storm season

[torrea40]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 260831
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 AM AST FRI JUL 26 2013

...DORIAN BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 41.5W
ABOUT 1425 MI...2290 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DORIAN.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST. DORIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DORIAN HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Hurricane Alexis]

NHC forecasts weakening and a slight curve towards the wnw at the end of the track.



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[Hurricane Alexis]

DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EXPERIENCING MODERATE SHEAR AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT FOR THE NEXT 2-4 DAYS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DURING THIS TIME...AND THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. AFTER THAT...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT DORIAN
SHOULD INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE BAHAMAS. WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS CONTINUING SHEAR DURING THIS INTERACTION...THE ECMWF
AND UKMET SHOW A LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. BASED ON THE PREMISE
THAT THE SHEAR COULD BE LESS THAN FORECAST BY THE GFS AND THE SHIPS
MODEL...THE FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION AT 96 HOURS.
AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT DORIAN COULD DISSIPATE...EITHER
FROM LANDFALL ON HISPANIOLA OR FROM DEGENERATING TO A TROPICAL WAVE
DUE TO THE CURRENT HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.


I would rather it be a fish storm then degenerating into a wave. At least we would have something to track.

[Nimbus]

CURRENT HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT

So the *current* thinking is a track north of the islands trapped under a ridge?
Are there any other inhibiting elements other than land interaction down track?

[Hurricane Alexis]

CURRENT HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT

So the *current* thinking is a track north of the islands trapped under a ridge?
Are there any other inhibiting elements other than land interaction down track?

A trough in the bahamas might be an issue and shear.

[jlauderdal]

Dorian is in MAJOR trouble now

Convective pattern needs to improve or else this will revert back to a wave. Perhaps the new GFS is better than the old one

long runners are very rare, especially this time of year

[jlauderdal]

This is random, but I was just thinking (and subsequently made a map of what it would look like) could you imagine what would happen during hurricane season if these islands were missing?

http://i42.tinypic.com/2uf6amw.jpg

reduce your drawing by 98%, center it on the eastern tip of cuba and you will get the same effect

[Evil Jeremy]

06 GFS is a nudge North of the 00z run. Instead of landfalling around PR, it stays north of the islands until being forced into the Eastern tip of Cuba.

[N2FSU]

06 GFS is a nudge North of the 00z run. Instead of landfalling around PR, it stays north of the islands until being forced into the Eastern tip of Cuba.

Yep. Skirts the northern coast of Hispaniola on the 06Z run.

Here is 90hr:

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS; 102hr