ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS; 117hr. Makes the WSW dive between Haiti and eastern Cuba

[tailgater]

Dorian is in MAJOR trouble now

Convective pattern needs to improve or else this will revert back to a wave. Perhaps the new GFS is better than the old one

This is partly the cause of his demise along with mid level shear.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... type=flash

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS; 132hr

[img][/img]

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS; 159hr

[img][/img]

[Alyono]

I wonder if it is a wave NOW

I just looked at the visible imagery and do not see any sign of a circulation

[ninel conde]

Dorian is in MAJOR trouble now

Convective pattern needs to improve or else this will revert back to a wave. Perhaps the new GFS is better than the old one

always need to take notice when the euro never shows much. may be the 2nd in a row to fall apart in deep tropical waters. trend?

[Hurricane Alexis]

Looks closed.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[tailgater]

SST's will start slowly rising

I think i see a hot on the western edge, haven't seen that in a while.

[Alyono]

Dorian is in MAJOR trouble now

Convective pattern needs to improve or else this will revert back to a wave. Perhaps the new GFS is better than the old one

always need to take notice when the euro never shows much. may be the 2nd in a row to fall apart in deep tropical waters. trend?

The ECMWF NEVER shows anything in the deep tropics. It saying this would be nothing is not exactly meaningful. It has missed many other storms around the world this year

[Alyono]

Looks closed.

http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/6825/019g.png

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

10 hours ago

[TheStormExpert]

Latest Morphed Composite:

[TheStormExpert]

Latest Shear Tendency map:

[TheStormExpert]

Latest SAL map:

[TheStormExpert]

Woke up this morning to a less organized storm... Not surprising.

[jhpigott]

This is one sick little puppy

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

[ninel conde]

Dorian is in MAJOR trouble now

Convective pattern needs to improve or else this will revert back to a wave. Perhaps the new GFS is better than the old one

always need to take notice when the euro never shows much. may be the 2nd in a row to fall apart in deep tropical waters. trend?

The ECMWF NEVER shows anything in the deep tropics. It saying this would be nothing is not exactly meaningful. It has missed many other storms around the world this year

thanks. its going to be interesting to see the fate of the next one that forms off africa.

[Blown Away]

06z Models...Most keep Dorian N of the big islands...Bit of a north trend with the 06z...If Dorian survives I bet we see a turn near the end of the forecast over time


06z Intensity Models...Most keep Dorian as a moderate TS

[Gustywind]

...Dorian becoming less organized...

summary of 500 am AST...0900 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...17.1n 41.5w
about 1425 mi...2290 km E of the northern Leeward Islands
maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/h
present movement...WNW or 285 degrees at 20 mph...32 km/h
minimum central pressure...1001 mb...29.56 inches


Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of dorian.

[tolakram]

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

I think there's a decent chance this is an open wave. Both the visible and the MIMIC-TPW show Dorian losing circulation.

[Blown Away]

479
WHXX01 KWBC 260635
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0635 UTC FRI JUL 26 2013
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN (AL042013) 20130726 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130726 0600 130726 1800 130727 0600 130727 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 40.5W 17.7N 45.1W 18.3N 49.4W 18.6N 53.5W
BAMD 16.9N 40.5W 17.8N 43.5W 18.4N 46.2W 18.9N 48.6W
BAMM 16.9N 40.5W 17.8N 43.9W 18.3N 47.1W 18.8N 50.1W
LBAR 16.9N 40.5W 17.5N 43.9W 18.2N 47.6W 18.8N 51.2W
SHIP 45KTS 42KTS 41KTS 42KTS
DSHP 45KTS 42KTS 41KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130728 0600 130729 0600 130730 0600 130731 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.8N 57.3W 18.9N 64.6W 18.4N 72.1W 17.4N 79.3W
BAMD 19.2N 50.7W 19.2N 54.2W 18.4N 57.1W 17.7N 59.7W
BAMM 19.1N 53.0W 19.5N 58.4W 19.4N 63.4W 19.7N 67.9W
LBAR 19.2N 54.5W 18.9N 59.9W 17.9N 64.8W 0.0N 0.0W
SHIP 42KTS 48KTS 47KTS 45KTS
DSHP 42KTS 48KTS 47KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 40.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 37.1W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 15.3N LONM24 = 33.9W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM
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