ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

The 0Z euro, higher rez, shows Dorian bouncing off the Miami area at 168 hours and recurving up the coast. The previous run had Dorian just SE of Key West at the same time.

It appears to be a moderate tropical storm on the higher rez images, but I'm not too good at reading them.

Correction to the above, the 0Z euro shows a TD, or well defined wave, near Miami. It appears to gain some strength in the Bahamas, but never becomes more than a TD, if that.

The euro has never shown Dorian other than a weak TD at most if not an open wave for its entire life.
Must be a problem because of its size.

[NDG]

I think they are going to wait one more advisory before pulling the plug if it continues with its current satellite appearance of no LLC evidence, IMO.

[wxman57]

I think they are going to wait one more advisory before pulling the plug if it continues with its current satellite appearance of no LLC evidence, IMO.

Oh, I certainly don't think the NHC will pull the plug next hour. I think they'll call it a 40kt TS and POSSIBLY indicate it may weaken to a TD in 2-3 days. They may give up on it tomorrow at this time and issue the final advisory.

[jlauderdal]

This season is starting to remind me of the last two seasons...a lot of TSs that can't seem to get their act together, especially early on (remember that in 2011, it took until Irene for a hurricane to form). And it appears to be a trend over the last ten or fifteen years...so this might explain why when we do get a memorable storm, it starts with an 'I' or something way down the alphabet. A lot of quantity in the early part of the season, but not so much quality.

its too early in the season for that..a few days ago i saw posts about this season being a big one because dorian formed so far out, it was too early to say that too

[TheStormExpert]

The whole problem is the storms size. If it was a bigger storm it would have a better chance at surviving these conditions it's experiencing now. Models too would probably all come into better agreement in what might happen.

[wxman57]

This season is starting to remind me of the last two seasons...a lot of TSs that can't seem to get their act together, especially early on (remember that in 2011, it took until Irene for a hurricane to form). And it appears to be a trend over the last ten or fifteen years...so this might explain why when we do get a memorable storm, it starts with an 'I' or something way down the alphabet. A lot of quantity in the early part of the season, but not so much quality.

its too early in the season for that..a few days ago i saw posts about this season being a big one because dorian formed so far out, it was too early to say that too

Agree. Conditions where Dorian is are typically not favorable at all for development in July. Dorian may be a sign of a bad season coming.

[northjaxpro]

I think they are going to wait one more advisory before pulling the plug if it continues with its current satellite appearance of no LLC evidence, IMO.

Oh, I certainly don't think the NHC will pull the plug next hour. I think they'll call it a 40kt TS and POSSIBLY indicate it may weaken to a TD in 2-3 days. They may give up on it tomorrow at this time and issue the final advisory.

Yeah, NHC will observe to see if the trend of weakening will continue throughout the day. I don't see them ending advisories until either 5 pm or 11p.m tonight at the earliest, if this trend of weakening maintains throughout the day.

[HurrMark]

This season is starting to remind me of the last two seasons...a lot of TSs that can't seem to get their act together, especially early on (remember that in 2011, it took until Irene for a hurricane to form). And it appears to be a trend over the last ten or fifteen years...so this might explain why when we do get a memorable storm, it starts with an 'I' or something way down the alphabet. A lot of quantity in the early part of the season, but not so much quality.

its too early in the season for that..a few days ago i saw posts about this season being a big one because dorian formed so far out, it was too early to say that too

Agree. Conditions where Dorian is are typically not favorable at all for development in July. Dorian may be a sign of a bad season coming.

It is possible things may change, but when was the last time we had a retired storm that started with anything before "G"? That was 2007, six years ago and with Dean and Felix...and those were August-early September storms. The point is, yes, we can make the case that the season is starting "earlier" and we are getting more storms in the early months, but that doesn't change the fact that June and July are not months where you would tend to see these storms become "monsters". This may just be a prelude to the remainder of the season, but at least so far, it is 2011 all over again.

[tailgater]

Definitely weaker this morniong. but I think the LLC is still Mostly in tack it's now in the DRY stable pocket and the low level clouds aren't showing up on the visible loops well because they are so thin and the angle of satelite and sun reflection. I'd be surpised if he did anything but get worse looking today.
Great WV loop
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... type=flash

[cycloneye]

I think we will have plenty of time to talk about the rest of the season in the Talking Tropics forum.

[Bocadude85]

I really do not think Dorian looks all that bad for a weak tropical storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

[tolakram]

13:45Z



The big picture: http://imageshack.us/a/img850/1417/0e6e.jpg

[jhpigott]

I really do not think Dorian looks all that bad for a weak tropical storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

looks like the low level structure is moving west, while the convection associated with Dorian moves off to the WNW-NW

[underthwx]

I really do not think Dorian looks all that bad for a weak tropical storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

Agree....looks like it may survive,,,

[blp]

Until we get a good recent ASCAT pass we won't know for sure what is going on.

[blp]

What an ironic twist that the Euro now is the strongest with this storm even through the long range of all the models. Take a look at this run. I have not seen that so far from the Euro.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2013072600&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

[hurricaneCW]

Models definitely have a grasp on how strong a storm could be. Given how weak models showed Dorian to be should have been a clear sign that it would never be a strong storm. When the models start showing a powerful system, then there's your big storm.

While models can't determine a storms exact intensity, they can certainly differentiate between a weak TS to a strong hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Just to point out that Andrew was also a tiny little thing like Dorian. But don't get me wrong,this is no duplicate of Andrew intensitywise down the road,only to point out that the tropics are dynamic and changing all the time.

[Blown Away]

[cycloneye]

http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/4972/zy1v.jpg

That is a very old ASCAT pass made at 8:24 PM EDT last night. Waiting for a new one.