ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bocadude85]

That ASCAT pass doesn't confirm an LLC. It does indicate a very sharp wave axis. No southwest winds were indicated. I think the NHC will wait until tomorrow to indicate it's no longer a TS, assuming the current trend continues.

Assuming Dorian does somehow survive what are your thoughts in regards to track? Do you think Dorian will move into Eastern Cuba like the GFS is showing?

[SFLcane]

That ASCAT pass doesn't confirm an LLC. It does indicate a very sharp wave axis. No southwest winds were indicated. I think the NHC will wait until tomorrow to indicate it's no longer a TS, assuming the current trend continues.

57 upper level conditions don't look to extreme near Bahamas think Dorian may have opportunity to strengthen some?

[tolakram]

Saved 12Z GFS images. Loses organization near the islands, vanishes near PR but remains look to go above Cuba.

At the time of posting ImageShack is having technical issues. These should show up once fixed.

[tolakram]

The 12Z wind shear loop seems to tell a different story.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

[tolakram]

16:15Z

[Blown Away]

That ASCAT pass doesn't confirm an LLC. It does indicate a very sharp wave axis. No southwest winds were indicated. I think the NHC will wait until tomorrow to indicate it's no longer a TS, assuming the current trend continues.

57 upper level conditions don't look to extreme near Bahamas think Dorian may have opportunity to strengthen some?

SFL, where do u see UL conditions are reduced in that area? Shear predicted in the 20+kt range

[anarchiver19]

From Wikipedia

Dorian /ˈdɔəriən/ is a name of Greek origin meaning "from Doris", or alternatively from the Gaelic name Doireann meaning "tempestuous weather".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dorian_(name)

Is Dorian supposed to be a male name? The Dorian I know is female. I guess it's like "The Picture of Dorian Gray"?

FWIW my eight year old Dorian is a boy...and it usually looks like a storm blew through when he leaves a room

[HurricaneTracker2031]

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12Z Models are out!

[sleepysilverdoor]

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[Aric Dunn]

Dorians in trouble ... looks like the circ is also weakening.. it had better develop some decent convection or it will die...

[hurricanekid416]

For some reason I have a gut feeling that dorian will dissipate soon but my gut is never right

[Riptide]

Dorians in trouble ... looks like the circ is also weakening.. it had better develop some decent convection or it will die...

It's heading into a core of dry air at all levels, worst possible outcome for a developing TC. At least the next one down the line will have a clear view. Whats up with the sudden formation of high-level clouds above Dorian?

[SapphireSea]

I see some mid-upper clouds running east away. Possibly spitting out outflow boundaries? Looks like this may be the middle-of-the-end.

[caribepr]

http://img546.imageshack.us/img546/1499/hbxt.jpg

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needed a you made me laugh button to click on this one

[JonathanBelles]

My thoughts: http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... ical-wave/

[NDG]

I see greatest vorticity somewhere in the circled area, with some evidence of SW to NE clouds at some level.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 260915.GIF

[Aric Dunn]

I see greatest vorticity somewhere in the circled area, with some evidence of SW to NE clouds at some level.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 260915.GIF

[img]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/2013AL04_1KMSRVIS_201307261615_zps1ae65d02.gif[/mg]

I can still see a well defined circ thats not really in question.. but unless decent convection builds soon it wont last much more than a day .

[Riptide]

I see greatest vorticity somewhere in the circled area, with some evidence of SW to NE clouds at some level.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 260915.GIF

[img]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/2013AL04_1KMSRVIS_201307261615_zps1ae65d02.gif[/mg]

I can still see a well defined circ thats not really in question.. but unless decent convection builds soon it wont last much more than a day .

The overall size of Dorian looks to be expanding, would not be surprised if it's an illusion tho caused by the shear.

[Aric Dunn]

I see greatest vorticity somewhere in the circled area, with some evidence of SW to NE clouds at some level.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 260915.GIF

[img]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/2013AL04_1KMSRVIS_201307261615_zps1ae65d02.gif[/mg]

I can still see a well defined circ thats not really in question.. but unless decent convection builds soon it wont last much more than a day .

The overall size of Dorian looks to be expanding, would not be surprised if it's an illusion tho caused by the shear.

the upper lvl clouds have expanded but alot of that is stable air clouds not outflow... the low level circ has become quite small which is not good.. if it had a large enough circ it could technically be able to pull in enough moisture to keep the core alive...

[Blown Away]

Mostly exposed, but you can clearly see spinning at the low level is still going on...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html