ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StormTracker]

1815
Very naked but trying to find some clothes to put on!

[tropicwatch]

The shear doesn't appear that bad right now, just fighting the dry air.

[Senobia]

Just hope the stronger more severe and deadly storms don't cause harm.

How can a storm that's 'deadly and severe' not cause harm? Be very careful what you wish for.

[TheStormExpert]

Here's another look at the Shear:

[TheStormExpert]

Just hope the stronger more severe and deadly storms don't cause harm.

How can a storm that's 'deadly and severe' not cause harm? Be very careful what you wish for.

By going out to sea/recurving.

[hurricanekid416]

I think it'll maintain ts strength unless it hits higher sheer

[Aric Dunn]

low le el cloud deck really thickening .. should see another burst of convection ... though could just be the sun angle

[WeatherEmperor]

1815
Very naked but trying to find some clothes to put on!

It better put on some clothes quickly cause its not pretty to see!

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[TheStormExpert]

low le el cloud deck really thickening .. should see another burst of convection ... though could just be the sun angle

Where do you see this?

[Hurricane Alexis]

To me it looks like the LLC is outrunning the convection faster than before.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

low le el cloud deck really thickening .. should see another burst of convection ... though could just be the sun angle

Where do you see this?

everywhere !

[Aric Dunn]

The mid level shear is not helping either... worst kind of shear..

[baytownwx]

Dorian looks like it was completely ripped and shredded apart...RIP (you can still bet I'll track your ashes across the ocean, though until the last piece of you is gone)

[Hurricane_Luis]

Just hope the stronger more severe and deadly storms don't cause harm.

How can a storm that's 'deadly and severe' not cause harm? Be very careful what you wish for.

He means when an strong storm don't make landfall and goes out to sea.

[Hurricane Alexis]

I think this is a recent ASCAT pass. It looks like a wave axis.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013

...DORIAN WEAKENS WHILE MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 45.8W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DORIAN.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.8 WEST. DORIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DORIAN IS
DISORGANIZED...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR...DORIAN HAS
BECOME EVEN LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME
DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF AN AREA OF WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION.
ALSO...ANIMATION OF THE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CIRCULATION IS BARELY
CLOSED AT THIS TIME. USING A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB
AND TAFB...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT. THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST NOW SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH
DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF
GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD
DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN WAVE MUCH SOONER THAN THAT.

THE LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT DORIAN IS MOVING RAPIDLY
WESTWARD...SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. A STRONG
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF DORIAN IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS
SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH
BUT THAT MODEL DOES NOT INITIALIZE NOR FORECAST A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 17.8N 45.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 18.2N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 18.6N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 19.0N 56.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 19.5N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 20.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 20.5N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[wxman57]

Forecast to dissipate in latest NHC advisory. Given the unfavorable environment in its path, I think the dissipation will be much earlier than 3-4 days.

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR...DORIAN HAS
BECOME EVEN LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME
DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF AN AREA OF WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION.
ALSO...ANIMATION OF THE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CIRCULATION IS BARELY
CLOSED AT THIS TIME. USING A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB
AND TAFB...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT. THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST NOW SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH
DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF
GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD
DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN WAVE MUCH SOONER THAN THAT.

THE LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT DORIAN IS MOVING RAPIDLY
WESTWARD...SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. A STRONG
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF DORIAN IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS
SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH
BUT THAT MODEL DOES NOT INITIALIZE NOR FORECAST A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 17.8N 45.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 18.2N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 18.6N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 19.0N 56.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 19.5N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 20.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 20.5N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[tailgater]

Another Good WV loop showing what he's dealing with, probably will be for at least 12 more hours.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... type=flash

[Hurricane_Luis]

Dorian, Enjoy tropical storm status, the next advisory could be your fate. LOL

[TheStormExpert]

Just a little after4:30pm and the new advisory is out. That was quick!