ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Alexis]

ASCAT pass at 8:05 PM EDT tells the story.

It looks like the next advisory will be it's last.


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[tolakram]

I'm sorry but so far for an above average seasons (in terms of pure numbers), the storms of 2013 certainly have been a rather pathetic lot. Mind you I do not desire landfalls, but rather just fishes to track that actually hold together for more than a couple days. Dorian is just the latest example.

It's a Cape Verde storm in July. The odds were heavily stacked against it from the beginning. It basically suffered the same fate as Chantal - got its guts ripped out by the easterlies and other factors. If this were late August or September, Dorian could have been a monster.

We'll see or maybe none of the Cape Verde long trackers will hold together this year, like during the past two. Conditions in MDR seem very hostile towards sustained development, once again like it has been the past two years.

Similar to 2005? You see the point I'm making? Cape Verde storms are just one of the ingredients to the Atlantic Hurricane season, and Cape Verde season starts in mid AUGUST.

[Aric Dunn]

ASCAT pass at 8:05 PM EDT tells the story and for sure will acelerate the downgrade.

[img]http://oi39.tinypic.com/nlv2ue.jpg[/mg]

just like with Chantal and many other small systems ascat has a very hard time with them. for nearly the whole time with chantal ascat showed an open wave recon found otherwise.

[LaBreeze]

So is the "fat lady" stepping up to the microphone? Do we need to get the fork out of the drawer to see if it's done?

[wxman57]

Still a TS.

AL, 04, 2013072700, , BEST, 0, 178N, 471W, 35, 1010, TS

Calling it a TS doesn't make it one. All evidence says otherwise.

[Aric Dunn]

So is the "fat lady" stepping up to the microphone? Do we need to get the fork out of the drawer to see if it's done?

its getting there...

[cycloneye]

Still a TS.

AL, 04, 2013072700, , BEST, 0, 178N, 471W, 35, 1010, TS

Calling it a TS doesn't make it one. All evidence says otherwise.

I think they did this before that ASCAT.

[funster]

Yup, convection definitely starting to return. Potential amazing, unexpected comeback in the works for Dorian! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Blown Away]

00z Models...Many shift north

[Dean4Storms]

Was never thinking this would survive the dry air, you can see it's moisture plume from the ITCZ turning less and less moist. It's done for now, may need to eyeball it once it reaches the FL. Straits and Gulf.

[tailgater]

He's not gonna go out without a fight.
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... type=flash

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

@ Tolakram Oh I know that, 2005 was so bad because of the home brew. I enjoy Cape Verde long trackers because most are intense, yet do not make it across the Atlantic before they recurve.

[Blown Away]

479
WHXX01 KWBC 270041
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0041 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN (AL042013) 20130727 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130727 0000 130727 1200 130728 0000 130728 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 47.1W 18.9N 51.1W 19.9N 54.8W 20.8N 58.3W
BAMD 17.8N 47.1W 18.2N 49.8W 18.5N 52.3W 18.6N 54.7W
BAMM 17.8N 47.1W 18.4N 50.4W 19.0N 53.5W 19.5N 56.4W
LBAR 17.8N 47.1W 18.5N 50.9W 19.1N 54.5W 19.5N 58.0W
SHIP 35KTS 31KTS 30KTS 33KTS
DSHP 35KTS 31KTS 30KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130729 0000 130730 0000 130731 0000 130801 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.8N 61.5W 23.3N 67.5W 24.6N 73.2W 25.9N 78.1W
BAMD 18.6N 56.8W 18.1N 60.8W 17.7N 64.4W 18.3N 67.4W
BAMM 20.0N 59.0W 20.6N 63.9W 20.9N 68.2W 21.3N 72.3W
LBAR 20.1N 61.1W 21.3N 66.6W 22.4N 73.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 38KTS 44KTS 57KTS 71KTS
DSHP 38KTS 44KTS 44KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 47.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 21KT
LATM12 = 17.4N LONM12 = 42.9W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 21KT
LATM24 = 16.4N LONM24 = 38.7W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 60NM


SHIP UP TO HURRICANE IN 120 HOURS...JUST SAYING...

[ROCK]

Come on we are looking at a completely decoupled LLC from the MLC...not going to make a cane...it's about to open up..ala Chris back in 2007...

[Blown Away]

ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DORIAN AL042013 07/27/13 00 UTC *

SHEAR (KT) 17 17 15 11 13 13 10 15 7 15 13 20 9

Shear drops to 9kt's at 120 hours, was in the 20's & 30's previously...Just posting the updates...

[ROCK]

00z Models...Many shift north

The one that counts TVCN kills it over Cuba...

[Blown Away]

Come on we are looking at a completely decoupled LLC from the MLC...not going to make a cane...it's about to open up..ala Chris back in 2007...

SHIP didn't get the memo...

[NDG]

Most likely a downgrade down to TD, IMO.
I can still see a COC on satellite near 18N & 47.2W with some very isolated convection starting to fire on the northern quadrant.
Interesting how the shear is now coming from the north.

[Blown Away]

Most likely a downgrade down to TD, IMO.
I can still see a COC on satellite near 18N & 47.2W with some very isolated convection starting to fire on the northern quadrant.
Interesting how the shear is now coming from the north.

On the floater you can clearly see a decent circulation spinning...The burst of convection must be maintained IMO to have any shot...Life support now!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[beoumont]

at some level: