ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking they keep advisories going for now, see how the new convection goes then decide tomorrow morning if they want to kill it off or if the redevelopment is persistent.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm thinking they keep advisories going for now, see how the new convection goes then decide tomorrow morning if they want to kill it off or if the redevelopment is persistent.

they normally wait 12 to 24 hr to see if systems come back.

[Aric Dunn]

Most likely a downgrade down to TD, IMO.
I can still see a COC on satellite near 18N & 47.2W with some very isolated convection starting to fire on the northern quadrant.
Interesting how the shear is now coming from the north.

yeah im seeing north to NE upper level shear.. strange its not analyzed on any map i can find.. mid level shear out of sw upper level n to ne .. odd. but the sirus clouds from the limited convection is clearly blowing to the south..

[Aric Dunn]

well on water vapor you can see the upper winds coming down the back side of the upper trough... on a side note if it getting ne/ n upper winds than there is likely going to be a brief area of upper high before it runs into the trough and the strong upper level sw winds in a couple day..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[Blown Away]

I think I'm pretty close, the circulation can be seen on the shortwave IR b/c there is very limited convection...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Aric Dunn]

[img]http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/4203/r7i9.jpg[/mg]
I think I'm pretty close, the circulation can be seen on the shortwave IR b/c there is very limited convection...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

sorry about that I hit the wrong the button...

just a little south of there..

use RGB easier to see..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Gustywind]

Aric given the latest from the NHC and your excellent analysis (as usual !) of the situation, could we tkink that TS Dorian could spare all the Leewards, including PR? We should deal with "what" us in the islands?

What are your thoughts about Dorian?

Thanks

Gustywind

[Alyono]

Tropical Wave Dorian

and has been for the entire day

[chaser1]

I'm sorry but so far for an above average seasons (in terms of pure numbers), the storms of 2013 certainly have been a rather pathetic lot. Mind you I do not desire landfalls, but rather just fishes to track that actually hold together for more than a couple days. Dorian is just the latest example.

I think this may put things a bit more in perspective. Anyone remember 1992? Sure, the year with Andrew, but there's perhaps a bit more to the story. "1st named storm of the year forms on August 17....NOT! Prior to Hurricane Andrew that year, there was a "numbered" but not named Sub-Tropical Storm on April 21 somewhere around Bermuda. Was very large, had sustained 50 mph winds, oh yeah...one more thing - it did have a warm core as confirmed by recon. There were 2 other (or possibly 3?) Tropical Depressions prior to Hurricane Andrew as well, but they failed to develop; Likely due to dry air, low SST's, wind shear......the kind of stuff that Mother Nature lets out of her purse during spring/early summer.

Anyone wanna play Hurricane Trivia? "Sure Alex, i'll take Laughable Excuses for Cyclones, for $200!" Okay then.....name the tropical cyclone this year that has thus far exhibited the lowest pressure?? Answer: Tropical Storm Andrea.

What's the point? If one takes a quick look at this season on paper, one sees 4 named Tropical Storms, 3 of the 4 lasted for 3 days, with Dorian likely to join them (if he can last past one more 11:00pm update - LOL). Anyone remember how half of the posters here were crying foul when NHC named that ragged swath of scud clouds & showers "Tropical Storm Andrea" (I was one of them)?? So, what if Andrea "not" been named? No harm, no foul. For that matter, what if Tropical Storm Barry had not been named?? My point is that Damian could have just as well been classified as the second named storm of the year and most would say, "ok, early season for something forming so far east; must be some warm SST's out there...watch out for this year!

Conversely, everyone talks about what a lame limiting Atlantic season (other than Andrew) that 1992 was. What if the April Storm that year had been named Andrew. This would be kinda typical for an early season storm. What if the 2 or 3 Tropical Depressions were named that year?? Andrew would have actually been named "Danielle" (or Earl). Now all of a sudden, here's a year with 8 or 9 named storms (with one Cat. 5 in the middle), and 1992 suddenly seems like a fairly average year, or slightly less than average but then again...it was an El Nino year.

It should'nt be a surprise to anyone who follows this board, that NHC's level of data collection, funding for recon & satellite, budgeted payroll for more meteorologists, and certainly the level of competence has changed a little bit when compared to 20-40 years ago. So why should it seem such a surprise that there has been a seemingly obvious increase in the number of storms forming per year? Bill Gray's Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation? Global Warming? Planet Nibiru (well, maybe not that one...). Isnt is also reasonable that there's just more stuff out there that are getting tagged "Tropical Storm"?? I mean seriously..... do you really think that 100's of Earth like planets about a Bagillion miles away just popped up? Astronomers are only now able to detect a bit more than we've been able to for many years.

The problem with Analogue's and Averages, etc, are that to properly use such data one should really be using data where all perameters were, and are the same. We are living in an instant world where data, information, politics/warnings, and economic liability is different than from years past. So, if one were to logically think in terms of Aug. & Sept. being roughly 4 X June/July in quantity and 4 X June/July in quality (or severity), than what might logically be taken from what we've seen this year, is a semi persisitant W. Atlantic blocking ridge, favorable conditions for Depressions/Storms to form over the far E. Atlantic, a heigtened risk for the Greater/Lesser Antilles, Bahamas, and S.E. Conus, and a slew of dog tired Hurricane Forecasters by the time this season wraps up.

...by the way, the first 2 storms of 2005 were garbage storms. One formed E. of Belize and tracked WNW and buried itself in the Bay of Canned Peaches (yeah I know, but aint gonna try and spell it right), and the other moved north into the Gulf and came ashore somewhere around Mobile, Al. Those two proved what a garbage year 2005 would be, right?

[Alyono]

there is one legit US TC threat

It's Flossie, not TW Dorian

[Aric Dunn]

Aric given the latest from the NHC and your excellent analysis (as usual !) of the situation, could we tkink that TS Dorian could spare all the Leewards, including PR? We should deal with "what" us in the islands?

What are your thoughts about Dorian?

Thanks

Gustywind

any effect would be minimal.. if at all. unless magically it found a better environment...

[Aric Dunn]

I think this may put things a bit more in perspective. Anyone remember 1992? Sure, the year with Andrew, but there's perhaps a bit more to the story. "1st named storm of the year forms on August 17....NOT! Prior to Hurricane Andrew that year, there was a "numbered" but not named Sub-Tropical Storm on April 21 somewhere around Bermuda. Was very large, had sustained 50 mph winds, oh yeah...one more thing - it did have a warm core as confirmed by recon. There were 2 other (or possibly 3?) Tropical Depressions prior to Hurricane Andrew as well, but they failed to develop; Likely due to dry air, low SST's, wind shear......the kind of stuff that Mother Nature lets out of her purse during spring/early summer.

Anyone wanna play Hurricane Trivia? "Sure Alex, i'll take Laughable Excuses for Cyclones, for $200!" Okay then.....name the tropical cyclone this year that has thus far exhibited the lowest pressure?? Answer: Tropical Storm Andrea.

What's the point? If one takes a quick look at this season on paper, one sees 4 named Tropical Storms, 3 of the 4 lasted for 3 days, with Dorian likely to join them (if he can last past one more 11:00pm update - LOL). Anyone remember how half of the posters here were crying foul when NHC named that ragged swath of scud clouds & showers "Tropical Storm Andrea" (I was one of them)?? So, what if Andrea "not" been named? No harm, no foul. For that matter, what if Tropical Storm Barry had not been named?? My point is that Damian could have just as well been classified as the second named storm of the year and most would say, "ok, early season for something forming so far east; must be some warm SST's out there...watch out for this year!

Conversely, everyone talks about what a lame limiting Atlantic season (other than Andrew) that 1992 was. What if the April Storm that year had been named Andrew. This would be kinda typical for an early season storm. What if the 2 or 3 Tropical Depressions were named that year?? Andrew would have actually been named "Danielle" (or Earl). Now all of a sudden, here's a year with 8 or 9 named storms (with one Cat. 5 in the middle), and 1992 suddenly seems like a fairly average year, or slightly less than average but then again...it was an El Nino year.

It should'nt be a surprise to anyone who follows this board, that NHC's level of data collection, funding for recon & satellite, budgeted payroll for more meteorologists, and certainly the level of competence has changed a little bit when compared to 20-40 years ago. So why should it seem such a surprise that there has been a seemingly obvious increase in the number of storms forming per year? Bill Gray's Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation? Global Warming? Planet Nibiru (well, maybe not that one...). Isnt is also reasonable that there's just more stuff out there that are getting tagged "Tropical Storm"?? I mean seriously..... do you really think that 100's of Earth like planets about a Bagillion miles away just popped up? Astronomers are only now able to detect a bit more than we've been able to for many years.

The problem with Analogue's and Averages, etc, are that to properly use such data one should really be using data where all perameters were, and are the same. We are living in an instant world where data, information, politics/warnings, and economic liability is different than from years past. So, if one were to logically think in terms of Aug. & Sept. being roughly 4 X June/July in quantity and 4 X June/July in quality (or severity), than what might logically be taken from what we've seen this year, is a semi persisitant W. Atlantic blocking ridge, favorable conditions for Depressions/Storms to form over the far E. Atlantic, a heigtened risk for the Greater/Lesser Antilles, Bahamas, and S.E. Conus, and a slew of dog tired Hurricane Forecasters by the time this season wraps up.

...by the way, the first 2 storms of 2005 were garbage storms. One formed E. of Belize and tracked WNW and buried itself in the Bay of Canned Peaches (yeah I know, but aint gonna try and spell it right), and the other moved north into the Gulf and came ashore somewhere around Mobile, Al. Those two proved what a garbage year 2005 would be, right?

very true

[cycloneye]

New ASCAT pass made at 8:59 PM EDT shows a none closed circulation.

[Hurricane Alexis]

I'm sorry but so far for an above average seasons (in terms of pure numbers), the storms of 2013 certainly have been a rather pathetic lot. Mind you I do not desire landfalls, but rather just fishes to track that actually hold together for more than a couple days. Dorian is just the latest example.

[/quote][/quote]

I think this may put things a bit more in perspective. Anyone remember 1992? Sure, the year with Andrew, but there's perhaps a bit more to the story. "1st named storm of the year forms on August 17....NOT! Prior to Hurricane Andrew that year, there was a "numbered" but not named Sub-Tropical Storm on April 21 somewhere around Bermuda. Was very large, had sustained 50 mph winds, oh yeah...one more thing - it did have a warm core as confirmed by recon. There were 2 other (or possibly 3?) Tropical Depressions prior to Hurricane Andrew as well, but they failed to develop; Likely due to dry air, low SST's, wind shear......the kind of stuff that Mother Nature lets out of her purse during spring/early summer.

Anyone wanna play Hurricane Trivia? "Sure Alex, i'll take Laughable Excuses for Cyclones, for $200!" Okay then.....name the tropical cyclone this year that has thus far exhibited the lowest pressure?? Answer: Tropical Storm Andrea.

What's the point? If one takes a quick look at this season on paper, one sees 4 named Tropical Storms, 3 of the 4 lasted for 3 days, with Dorian likely to join them (if he can last past one more 11:00pm update - LOL). Anyone remember how half of the posters here were crying foul when NHC named that ragged swath of scud clouds & showers "Tropical Storm Andrea" (I was one of them)?? So, what if Andrea "not" been named? No harm, no foul. For that matter, what if Tropical Storm Barry had not been named?? My point is that Damian could have just as well been classified as the second named storm of the year and most would say, "ok, early season for something forming so far east; must be some warm SST's out there...watch out for this year!

Conversely, everyone talks about what a lame limiting Atlantic season (other than Andrew) that 1992 was. What if the April Storm that year had been named Andrew. This would be kinda typical for an early season storm. What if the 2 or 3 Tropical Depressions were named that year?? Andrew would have actually been named "Danielle" (or Earl). Now all of a sudden, here's a year with 8 or 9 named storms (with one Cat. 5 in the middle), and 1992 suddenly seems like a fairly average year, or slightly less than average but then again...it was an El Nino year.

It should'nt be a surprise to anyone who follows this board, that NHC's level of data collection, funding for recon & satellite, budgeted payroll for more meteorologists, and certainly the level of competence has changed a little bit when compared to 20-40 years ago. So why should it seem such a surprise that there has been a seemingly obvious increase in the number of storms forming per year? Bill Gray's Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation? Global Warming? Planet Nibiru (well, maybe not that one...). Isnt is also reasonable that there's just more stuff out there that are getting tagged "Tropical Storm"?? I mean seriously..... do you really think that 100's of Earth like planets about a Bagillion miles away just popped up? Astronomers are only now able to detect a bit more than we've been able to for many years.

The problem with Analogue's and Averages, etc, are that to properly use such data one should really be using data where all perameters were, and are the same. We are living in an instant world where data, information, politics/warnings, and economic liability is different than from years past. So, if one were to logically think in terms of Aug. & Sept. being roughly 4 X June/July in quantity and 4 X June/July in quality (or severity), than what might logically be taken from what we've seen this year, is a semi persisitant W. Atlantic blocking ridge, favorable conditions for Depressions/Storms to form over the far E. Atlantic, a heigtened risk for the Greater/Lesser Antilles, Bahamas, and S.E. Conus, and a slew of dog tired Hurricane Forecasters by the time this season wraps up.

...by the way, the first 2 storms of 2005 were garbage storms. One formed E. of Belize and tracked WNW and buried itself in the Bay of Canned Peaches (yeah I know, but aint gonna try and spell it right), and the other moved north into the Gulf and came ashore somewhere around Mobile, Al. Those two proved what a garbage year 2005 would be, right?

Yea, people seem to jump too conclusions too fast. Same as last year, and then we had Sandy.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
1100 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013

...DORIAN FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 48.1W
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DORIAN.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.1 WEST. DORIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
1100 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013

DORIAN APPEARS TO STILL HAVE A VIGOROUS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS
MEASURED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS...BUT IT HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS. I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE DORIAN A
REMNANT LOW IN THIS ADVISORY...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
CIRCULATION IS MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
LESSEN...NEW CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP. THE BEST OPTION IS TO KEEP
THE CYCLONE FOR A COUPLE OF MORE ADVISORY CYCLES AND MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION. SHIPS AND LGEM RE-INTENSIFY THE
CYCLONE A LITTLE BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BIASED TOWARD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WHICH GRADUALLY WEAKEN DORIAN.

THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLIES...AND AS TROPICAL
CYCLONE...REMNANT LOW OR TROUGH...IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...OR HOPEFULLY SOONER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 17.9N 48.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 18.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 18.8N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 19.3N 59.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0000Z 20.0N 63.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z 21.0N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Aric Dunn]

New ASCAT pass made at 8:59 PM EDT shows a none closed circulation.

[img]http://oi41.tinypic.com/2ihkl8y.jpg[/ig]

again very likely the same issue as with chantal and many other small circ.. it does not do well at all with them.

[cycloneye]

Excerpt from discussion by Lixon Avila.

DORIAN APPEARS TO STILL HAVE A VIGOROUS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS
MEASURED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS...BUT IT HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS. I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE DORIAN A
REMNANT LOW IN THIS ADVISORY...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
CIRCULATION IS MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
LESSEN...NEW CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP. THE BEST OPTION IS TO KEEP
THE CYCLONE FOR A COUPLE OF MORE ADVISORY CYCLES AND MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION. SHIPS AND LGEM RE-INTENSIFY THE
CYCLONE A LITTLE BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BIASED TOWARD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WHICH GRADUALLY WEAKEN DORIAN.

[CrazyC83]

It's definitely a remnant low right now (with a solid MLC but no LLC) but agreed with the reasoning. It could definitely come back. Or it might not. Let's just wait and see.

[Aric Dunn]

Excerpt from discussion by Lixon Avila.

DORIAN APPEARS TO STILL HAVE A VIGOROUS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS
MEASURED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS...BUT IT HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS. I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE DORIAN A
REMNANT LOW IN THIS ADVISORY...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
CIRCULATION IS MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
LESSEN...NEW CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP. THE BEST OPTION IS TO KEEP
THE CYCLONE FOR A COUPLE OF MORE ADVISORY CYCLES AND MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION. SHIPS AND LGEM RE-INTENSIFY THE
CYCLONE A LITTLE BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BIASED TOWARD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WHICH GRADUALLY WEAKEN DORIAN.

not surprised at all. the circ has been oddly very well defined for being devoid of convection all day .. convection still slowly increasing..


Also I mentioned it earlier but being thats its getting northerly wind shear means it should enter a small upper ridge to its west until it runs into the trough near the islands.

[chaser1]

So is the "fat lady" stepping up to the microphone? Do we need to get the fork out of the drawer to see if it's done?

Captain, if you"ll refrain from using colorful metaphors to inaccurately label "dead", what sensors clearly measure as large pools of an aquatic animal species referred to as "Dorado" seemingly moving counterclockwise at an approx. 19 1/2 miles an hour. This would certainly indicate "some" form of convective concentration rotating around an area of surface low pressure.

Bones, your thoughts? Jim, I don't know what Spock or you are talking about...I see nothing. But i'll try one of those dorritos that Spoke was talking about....