ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormhunter7]

something I found interesting is taking a look at this graphic from SPC
https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/ ... 0237_n.png
Notice the 2005 line and then look at the 2011 line.... compare that to 2013.... wonder if there is some type of correlation to the Atlantic hurricane season??? I'm going to try to digg up some research on it... could this point to weather pattern overall as a whole, in these years? (I know... I need more scientific data, and I also know that reporting tornados in the last 10 years has gotten a lot better, based on the increase in technology and people, etc.)

As far a TS Dorian... just what I posted last night has happened... the fact that the above surface is still spinning nicely (say probably 850/700mb center, I cant write this system off yet... but the road ahead is going to beat the system up a lot. I think the overall forward speed needs to slow to at least 17 mph or slower for anything to really get going vertically with the ridge to north.

[Bocadude85]

Convection continues to expand

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

[chaser1]

Excerpt from discussion by Lixon Avila.

DORIAN APPEARS TO STILL HAVE A VIGOROUS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS
MEASURED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS

Good try Dorian, your gonna have to play a better game of Possum before you're able to pull one over on 'ol Lixion

[Aric Dunn]

Convection continues to expand

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

yeah very slowly

[floridasun78]

breaking news bone post been delay we keep you inform if bone post maybe issue

[Bocadude85]

Convection continues to expand

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

yeah very slowly

Yea the LLC might actually get under some convection later tonight

[JonathanBelles]

Nightly update: http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... es-dorian/

[gatorcane]

Look at the latest 00Z intensity guidance. Several models are ramping up the intensity now, still others are decreasing Dorian to a remnant low, lead by AVNI (GFS). Hopefully Dorian will just dissipate before it finds these possible better conditions:

[gatorcane]

IR Rainbow - convection is gradually coming back. But is it enough?

[Bocadude85]

Come on we are looking at a completely decoupled LLC from the MLC...not going to make a cane...it's about to open up..ala Chris back in 2007...

SHIP didn't get the memo...

Not saying this will be anything like Andrew but here is a excerpt from Hurricane Andrews synoptic history




Satellite images suggest that Andrew produced deep convection only sporadically for several days, mainly in several bursts of about 12 hours duration. Also, the deep convection did not persist. Instead, it was stripped away from the low-level circulation by the strong southwesterly flow at upper levels. Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft investigated Andrew and, on the 20th, found that the cyclone had degenerated to the extent that only a diffuse low-level circulation center remained. Andrew's central pressure rose considerably


We all know what happened after that, you can never turn your back on mother nature because sometimes she can surprise you. I find it interesting that SHIP is seeing favorable conditions down the road.

[Aric Dunn]

IR Rainbow - convection is gradually coming back. But is it enough?

[img]http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/9343/yvoz.jpg[/ig]

new image in.. convection building a little quicker with a quick burst though small filling in the center again.. south side no convection yet..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

some -70 tops now..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[gatorcane]

IR Rainbow - convection is gradually coming back. But is it enough?

[img]http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/9343/yvoz.jpg[/ig]

new image in.. convection building a little quicker with a quick burst though small filling in the center again.. south side no convection yet..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Yep, just saw that frame Aric. Hot Tower alert?

[chaser1]

All right; Seriously? Tell me Dorian doesn't look a little like a "flea"??

[tailgater]

Yeah as Aric has been saying shear should lessen till probably tomorrow nite. warming waters and moister air aloft ahead, IMHO there's a decent chance he'll hang on.

[Aric Dunn]

IR Rainbow - convection is gradually coming back. But is it enough?

[img]http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/9343/yvoz.jpg[/ig]

new image in.. convection building a little quicker with a quick burst though small filling in the center again.. south side no convection yet..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Yep, just saw that frame Aric. Hot Tower alert?

yeah possible... -70 tops that popped up in 30 min.. would say it could be a small come back..

might be do to the increased upper divergence from the down side of a upper high that developed today to its west .. that its likely to be under for tomorrow.

[caribepr]

Excerpt from discussion by Lixon Avila.

DORIAN APPEARS TO STILL HAVE A VIGOROUS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS
MEASURED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS...BUT IT HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS. I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE DORIAN A
REMNANT LOW IN THIS ADVISORY...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
CIRCULATION IS MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
LESSEN...NEW CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP. THE BEST OPTION IS TO KEEP
THE CYCLONE FOR A COUPLE OF MORE ADVISORY CYCLES AND MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION. SHIPS AND LGEM RE-INTENSIFY THE
CYCLONE A LITTLE BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BIASED TOWARD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WHICH GRADUALLY WEAKEN DORIAN.

thank you, Luis. A few working to be so clever in their estimations and pretty much missing that we'd (that would be we, the front line little bits of dirt in the way of the mainland) be interested in hearing about through the 'dead' bits, those who actually are scientific and have long histories of following storms in both our area and the long line to the mainland appreciate your stable sensibilities. While Dorian might prove to be a short runner - or not - it seems it would behoove the prognosticators who don't have much experience but love the chase to listen to those who have been in the game for quite awhile. Just a thought for the long season ahead. But hey! what do I know? I keep a foil bit of Spam in my fridge to thwart the h gods, hoping they will never be so cruel as to make me eat that.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Even he does hang on for another day, conditions are forecast to be unfavorable after that so the outcome is the same.

[Ntxw]

Latest satellite loop. Dorian doesn't look very intimidating at the moment.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the SSD long WV loop, you can see the dry air moistening up on the northern and norhwestern side of the LLC, and, that combined with some light north-northeast shear may be why new convection is blowing up there. There is still dry air around to the SW of the LLC but it may be moistening gradually.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[tailgater]

Even he does hang on for another day, conditions are forecast to be unfavorable after that so the outcome is the same.

Just thinking down the road, he could handle some shear and still keep his circulation close to intact till he reaches the Bahamas where conditions May be more favorable. I'm still thinking EC or recurve.