ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MGC]

Have to see if the latest burst of convection can sustain overnight. If not than I imagine the NHC will pull the plug tomorrow.....MGC

[Aric Dunn]

Could be the change to the northerly flow maybe be helping to push some of that mid to upper level moisture to the north of it down.. which would explain maybe why only the northern quad has developed convection..

[Aric Dunn]

new image .. convection still building.. more -70 tops center covered up again..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Dorian is complicated.

There's a VERY good chance the tropical storm dissipates over the next day, in which case we have nothing to worry about. An environment of sinking air would destroy the remaining remnants if it degenerated.

but if...and this is a huge if...the storm were able to survive and get north of the Caribbean Islands, things may get interesting.
Up
We've got a potent upper-level trough across the region right now. This is creating a lot of shear. But if you take a look at satellite imagery, this trough is very convective in nature. All of this latent heat being released by those storms is warming the troposphere and allowing for the upper-level trough to become increasingly weak. This process was depicted by the GFS many, many days ago and should continue whilst the trough backs westward.

Right now, Dorian is struggling to say the least. Until this point, it had been convection-less for several hours. With the storm entering increasingly warm sea surface temperatures and DMAX though, we may see quite a flare-up over the coming hours. If this persists for long periods of time, its displaced anticyclone to the south...which is currently shearing it slightly...would become coupled again and the storm would gain ventilation channels.

Anyways, if the system was tracking north of the islands as the upper-level trough weakened and backed westward, that would be a very good setup for low wind shear. With warm waters and above-average vertical instability, strengthening would likely occur...perhaps of the quick variety...in the Bahamas.

This is being indicated by the LGEM and SHIPS.

But again, it's all VERY dependent on whether Dorian survives...which looks unlikely. If it degenerates, we probably don't have much to worry about.

[gatorcane]

SAVE imaged, convection is very close the LLC, just on the NW side:

[Aric Dunn]

SAVE imaged, convection is very close the LLC, just on the NW side:

yeah of you look at the last 2 frame you can see some trying to wrap to the south

[gatorcane]

yeah of you look at the last 2 frame you can see some trying to wrap to the south

Yeah I see what you mean. Also, doesn't seem like this convection is getting sheared as bad as earlier today, shear has lightened. Will be interesting to see what some new frames look like...

[chaser1]

[/quote]A few working to be so clever in their estimations ......we, the front line little bits of dirt in the way of the mainland) be interested in hearing about through the 'dead' bits, those who actually are scientific and have long histories of following storms in both our area and the long line to the mainland.... it would behoove the prognosticators who don't have much experience but love the chase to listen to those who have been in the game for quite awhile.....I keep a foil bit of Spam in my fridge to thwart the h gods, hoping they will never be so cruel as to make me eat that. [/quote]

I agree with regard to Lixion. He's a really good guy and I have always thought a good hurricane forecaster. You know, he developed such a good eye for tropical systems way way back from what I think was the Satellite division. It was that many years ago that I remember he, Stan, myself and a few friends would banter about various tropical systems and/or synoptic conditions. When promoted to Forecaster, he was unanimously appreciated for his insight, and sense of humor. I'm sure he's looking at Dorian and starkly recalls numerous prior events where either rapid intensification or regeneration occurred.

I personally anticipate Dorian to be a remnant low in less than 12 hours. Whether I or anyone is right or wrong is irrelevent. What is important is that each of us can come to this forum and take away the shared updates and insights from others here. By the way...."front line bits of dirt" belongs to us in Miami (but that's only because our state government is in Tallahassee...). As for the spam, that ain't nothing! You want to ward off hurricanes? Try an old pescado! Nothing like an old fish to ward off storms (plus it keeps the kids out of the fridge too

[chaser1]

One thing about Dorian that is interesting, is not only has the surface vortex not unwound yet, but despite the low and mid levels having become detached, the mid level circulation is still evident (lagging a bit to the east of the surface vortex), though much less vigorous than before. Other point is if one were to look at a longer Sat. loop of the storm, it was only a while ago when the last of the convection pretty much dropped off in conjunction with the mid level remnant, that some new bursting began to form further west over the lower level center.

Not gonna be easy though, vertically building itself up in any kind of sheared environment. Furthermore, as time goes on, it appears that the degree of separation between the low level and mid level is only increasing.

[bahamaswx]

They always refire at least once. Here we go.

[tailgater]

Wow you got my head swimming dude. 3 post up

[Aric Dunn]

new image in.. the negative -70 are gone but the convection has expanded lets see if it can maintain.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[boca]

I rather look at a tropical wave at this point it's far less confusing as far as the mid level and the low level decoupling and moving father apart.

[Bocadude85]

0z GFS is taking its sweet time to update

[chaser1]

:uarrow: Wow you got my head swimming dude. 3 post up

... appologies from me. Removed text/quotes caused it to be out of context. Back to the Dorian Discussion thread

[floridasun78]

I rather look at a tropical wave at this point it's far less confusing as far as the mid level and the low level decoupling and moving father apart.

????

[gatorcane]

0z GFS is taking its sweet time to update

It's basically the same as the 18Z. Takes Dorian or a remnant low into Cuba and dissipates it.

[SFLcane]

Whether this pops some convection tonight or not the overall environment just ahead is nasty. 30-40kts of shear

[Bocadude85]

0z GFS is taking its sweet time to update

It's basically the same as the 18Z. Takes Dorian or a remnant low into Cuba and dissipates it.

Yea it finally updated for me. Will be interesting to see if the GFS is right or not. I guess time will tell.

[chaser1]

Aric, I imagine you already have seen this, but check out the WV loop of Dorian?! Talk about "breaking through the cap"?? That bomb that just went off over the center is popping in some seriously crazy dry air; must be some warmer octane SST for that air to pop like it did.