CPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Flossie is getting more and more interesting.

[Kingarabian]

what can Hawaii expect? I'm hoping for some thunderstorms, and my trampoline flying away!??

Difficult to predict at this time, could fizzle or strengthen.

That dry air looks taunting, I agree.

[Yellow Evan]

what can Hawaii expect? I'm hoping for some thunderstorms, and my trampoline flying away!??

Difficult to predict at this time, could fizzle or strengthen.

That dry air looks taunting, I agree.

I think Hawaii is guaranteed some rain and wind.

[Kingarabian]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/rb.jpg

Feeding off the ITCZ.

[Kingarabian]

Code: Select all

27/0600 UTC   17.3N    136.7W       T3.5/3.5         FLOSSIE -- East Pacific

[supercane4867]

EP, 06, 2013072706, , BEST, 0, 172N, 1367W, 55, 998, TS

[bahamaswx]

Popped a warm spot in her CDO for a few frames there.

[Extratropical94]

...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS...
...ALMOST A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 137.6W
ABOUT 1155 MI...1860 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 270833
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2013

FLOSSIE HAS STRENGTHENED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE
IMAGES SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL EYE A LITTLE BEFORE
0600 UTC...AND GLIMPSES OF THAT FEATURE HAVE BECOME APPARENT IN
RECENT GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE
INCREASED TO 3.5/55 KT...BUT GIVEN THE IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION
SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 60 KT. FLOSSIE HAS
CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM AND IS HEADED FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE COOLER WATERS AND DRIER AIR
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO HOLD STEADY IN STRENGTH OR BEGIN TO
WEAKEN. EVEN THOUGH THE WATER TEMPERATURES INCREASE ALONG THE
EXPECTED TRACK OF FLOSSIE BEGINNING IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WESTERLY
SHEAR AND A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING.
THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN THE SHORT TERM.

THE TROPICAL STORM REMAINS ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH AT
ABOUT 17 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT ANOTHER
DAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST. FLOSSIE
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 3
DAYS.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...FLOSSIE WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AROUND 1800 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 17.5N 137.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 18.1N 140.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 18.9N 143.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 19.4N 146.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 19.7N 149.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 20.0N 155.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0600Z 20.5N 162.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[RL3AO]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 270833

INIT 27/0900Z 17.5N 137.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 18.1N 140.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 18.9N 143.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 19.4N 146.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 19.7N 149.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 20.0N 155.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0600Z 20.5N 162.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Theres something you don't see every day

[tolakram]

Live IR view: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Color: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[Caribwxgirl]

Wow that Flossie is really going. Hope it doesn't cause too many issues for those in its path.

[Yellow Evan]

Cloud tops have warmed a bit though. I think she's peaked.

[galaxy401]

When was the last time the CPAC had a storm? Seems like forever now.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062013
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FLOSSIE HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE THAT WAS APPARENT
EARLIER...AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND BECOME SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT...IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. MARGINAL SSTS...DRY AIR
ALOFT...AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE
STORM ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...285/17. THE
STORM SHOULD SLOW A BIT TOMORROW AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST DUE
TO A RETROGRADING RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALMOST ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW FLOSSIE NEAR THE SOUTHERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN
60-72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.

FLOSSIE SHOULD BE ACROSS 140W LONGITUDE BY 1800 UTC...SO THE NEXT
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HNLTCPCP1 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA31 PHFO. FORECAST DISCUSSIONS CAN BE FOUND UNDER
HNLTCDCP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPA41 PHFO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 17.8N 139.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 18.4N 141.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 19.1N 145.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 19.4N 148.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 19.6N 151.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 20.2N 157.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 20.6N 164.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Yellow Evan]

When was the last time the CPAC had a storm? Seems like forever now.

They gave Daniel last year like an adv or two. Before that, Fernanda 11.

[Meow]

Theres something you don't see every day

What was the last tropical cyclone which made landfall over the Big Island?

[Yellow Evan]

Theres something you don't see every day

What was the last tropical cyclone which made landfall over the Big Island?

Eugene 93.

[Meow]

Theres something you don't see every day

What was the last tropical cyclone which made landfall over the Big Island?

Eugene 93.

I searched— Eugene made landfall as a tropical depression. What was the last tropical storm? It seems that Flossie has chances to make landfall as a TS.