2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

[gatorcane]

We can discuss here about how the rest of the season will be. It all hinges on the MJO pulses that provide more favorable lifting for convection to get going. Let's see how things evolve in the peak months. The latest MJO forecast is for the favorable pulse to enter the Atlantic during the next two weeks.

I posted the 200 hPa graphic in the global discussion thread. Looks like it is showing alot of dry sinking air across the Atlantic basin, especially in the MDR for the next two weeks at least.

If it is correct, we may need to wait until the second or third week in August for the uptick in activity to occur would be more in line with climo.

[ninel conde]

yikes. this season may be rather slow. if we dont have a hurricane till at least aug 21 that will be a very slow start to the season.

[ninel conde]

I have a very primitive question (not much research) on an idea that perhaps a more knowledgeable poster or pro met with information can answer or give input.

One of our great posters, Andrew92, in the past have mentioned that seasons after "modoki" or central Pacific El Nino's often leaves way to bad seasons. Now to get started the past several seasons have proven that dry air and lack of instability has plagued the Atlantic basin. And actually right now the global ACE is very much below normal. We've been in the cold PDO and La Ninas or cold neutrals for a long stretch now (knowingly diminishing rainfall and moisture in the tropical Pacific). The tropics as you know contribute a vast amount of moisture to the global energy budget and the Pacific is the big daddy of them all. Could this long stretch since El Nino could be drying out the global budget and letting dry air be more rampant? Instability is the mutual relationship between temperature and moisture.

2010 had a decent season which was after an El Nino, again linking back to Andrew92's idea. The Indian Ocean I know has influential effects seasonally on activity in the Atlantic but my question here is the longer term Pacific lack of El Nino's of late be contributing to the long term problems we have been seeing in the Atlantic?

i doubt it. we started a period of high activity in 1995 but since 2006 things have been rather slow even though a bunch of weak swirls were named. the lack of cane landfalls and majors is astounding but i doubt its due to no el ninos. the last active period, 1933-1964 had numerous cane and major landfalls. these last few years have been bone, bone, dry but it wasnt like that in 33-64

[Ntxw]

i doubt it. we started a period of high activity in 1995 but since 2006 things have been rather slow even though a bunch of weak swirls were named. the lack of cane landfalls and majors is astounding but i doubt its due to no el ninos. the last active period, 1933-1964 had numerous cane and major landfalls. these last few years have been bone, bone, dry but it wasnt like that in 33-64

2007 was the unofficial start to the cold PDO. Since then there has only been 1 El Nino. It's not all on El Nino's but just can't help but be curious that there is such a lack of instability/moisture globally in this cold PDO period occuring during the same time period El Nino has become so rare, there's got to be a moisture connection somewhere. There was a super Nino, moderate Nino and a bunch of weak modoki Ninos between 1994-2005. The AMO has effects too and it is in the warm phase since the mid 90s helped the uptick as well (in tandem with warm PDO-El Ninos) but since the PDO flipped things have changed. Surely the Atlantic should at least fuel these storms in it's warm phase in theory but hasn't done such a good job alone since the PDO flip. 2004-2005 was the apex of the PDO+/AMO+ couplet <- lots and lots of tropical moisture lacking dry air.

For the record I'm not saying no El Nino is why we are not seeing landfalls or big storm formation, the question is the lack of El Nino's and tropical moisture in the Pacific (The largest body of water on earth) allowing dry/stable air to dominate the globe in the long term.

[cycloneye]

The CFS model has lower pressures in MDR for August. It also has a trough in the NE U.S.

[BigA]

I'm interested in the combination of the northeast trough with the stronger than average ridging in the western Atlantic. The former would imply more recurvature, while the latter would suggest more westward moving storms.

[ninel conde]

to me, it seems the high will be displaced too far south and its not the type of pattern forecast at the beginning of the season. based solely on this i will say august will be inactive. we need a high right where the trough is.

[BigA]

to me, it seems the high will be displaced too far south and its not the type of pattern forecast at the beginning of the season. based solely on this i will say august will be inactive. we need a high right where the trough is.

The location of the high and the trough on the east coast should have very little affect on the total number of storms that form in August. Far more important to the number of storms that form in August would be the lower than normal surface pressures in the Main Development Region between Africa and the Caribbean Sea.

Concerning the anomalous ridging and troughing I alluded to above, I'm just saying that it looks like the influences are somewhat contradictory. Lower than normal pressures/heights over the northeast US would tend to indicate recurvature, but higher than normal heights over the West Atlantic would tend to move storms more westward.

[ninel conde]

possible, but that also shows above normal pressure in the GOM and west carib. if nothing develops there that alone would help cause aug to be inactive.

[SFLcane]

Dangerous landfall pattern

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Dangerous landfall pattern

Still, we need actual storms that hold together for more than a couple of days before we worry about landfalls.

I think this will be like 2011 & 2012, another year of the East Coast 'cane. Once some storms do get their acts together.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SFLcane]

Dangerous landfall pattern

Still, we need actual storms that hold together for more than a couple of days before we worry about landfalls.

I think this will be like 2011 & 2012, another year of the East Coast 'cane. Once some storms do get their acts together.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Na in our basin? 100kt storms appear a thing of the past.

[cycloneye]

Are you joking by thinking the North Atlantic basin having major canes are a thing of the past?

[ninel conde]

Dangerous landfall pattern

Still, we need actual storms that hold together for more than a couple of days before we worry about landfalls.

I think this will be like 2011 & 2012, another year of the East Coast 'cane. Once some storms do get their acts together.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Na in our basin? 100kt storms appear a thing of the past.

maybe not this season, but i imagine another 100kt + storm will form in the next several years.

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2m

August looks like a top 5 cold August on the ECMWF last 30 years. Texas the center of small area above in south. Dang

if mr bastardi is right this will be a huge block even if anything forms. colder than normal augusts are often a sign of a slow season, like 1976.

[BigB0882]

I would get excited about a cold August but then I remember that cold in southeast Louisiana is 90 degrees for highs instead of 95. lol

[ninel conde]

I would get excited about a cold August but then I remember that cold in southeast Louisiana is 90 degrees for highs instead of 95. lol

mr bastardi normally focuses on the northeast, not sure if he means the whle country.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Dorian and Chantal are signs of how the ridge favors FL and SE US landfalls. If it wasn't for the bad environment hurricanes like the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane and many others from that time period would be a possibility.

[SapphireSea]

Dorian and Chantal are signs of how the ridge favors FL and SE US landfalls. If it wasn't for the bad environment hurricanes like the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane and many others from that time period would be a possibility.

Ridging of the strength we have seen suppresses activity, it reduces instability, it brings in cooler waters (I remember this being an issue early 2004), and it's quite normal for this time of the year, albeit a bit stronger than normal this year.

1928 O. Hurricane, 1945 Miami Hurricane, 1960 Donna, 1992 Andrew, 2004 Frances, 2004 Jeanne.

All majors or near majors before they hit from the east. All depends on energy coming off the east coast at the time. I can't say for pre satilite days, but I am sure these systems were missed by shortwaves and caught with building ridging. Some of these storms could have not happened for Florida had a trough been just a bit stronger. A progressively changing environment is a more unstable environment, an environment more likely to have landfall in general. Years with static troughs or static ridges have been anti-climatic, and even those had periods of change. Strong troughs are diving off from the east coast this year, ridge strength will matter little when one of these catches a stronger system.

We will have to wait and see if a big pattern change happens. If not, I am curious to see what occurs.

[Cyclenall]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2m

August looks like a top 5 cold August on the ECMWF last 30 years. Texas the center of small area above in south. Dang

if mr bastardi is right this will be a huge block even if anything forms. colder than normal augusts are often a sign of a slow season, like 1976.

I would have thought the opposite, as a cold January maybe signals an active landfalling hurricane season for the US. That was for myself only. I doubt there is a big connection between North American temperatures and tropical activity in the Atlantic but I'm sure there is a tiny one. It would also be a lose-lose situation in my view.

:uarrow: Are you joking by thinking the North Atlantic basin having major canes are a thing of the past?

I guess not, we'll have to wait years upon years for another 100+ knot hurricane to form...maybe 2027 there will be a 100 knot hurricane in the central Atlantic that lasts 6 hours...that's all you'll get! I'm so excited for this upcoming lameness ahead, I'm awake at night waiting for the next struggling storm to dissipate once it nears the Caribbean. If this season that seemed to have all these amazing factors come together ends up like 2012, you can kiss any hope of anything decent goodbye forever. My heart is beating so fast anticipating permanent quiet conditions in all basins.

maybe not this season, but i imagine another 100kt + storm will form in the next several years.

Your being way too optimistic here, not till 2027 I say! [/Humor]