ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[baytownwx]

Dorian giving us a happy face as he heads to heaven. At least he died happy

[pgoss11]

At least we have all had a preview of the upcoming CV season. We all knew the odds of having a long tracking storm to follow this early in the season would have been an anamoly. It's been fun tracking Chantal and Dorian but it's almost time for the true CV season. Looking forward to tracking some big storms this year!

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: We have another thread discussing this subject, but since you guys keep going here, hostility at the MDR has not been because of shear, which is usually present this time of the year, if anything shear has been below average at the MDR most times this season so far, the hostile conditions have been because of the below average instability and not so much because of SAL outbreaks. Most of the deep tropics are below average on instability at the mid levels, thus why ACE in the nothern Hemisphere has been below average so far this summer!!!! Is a fact that tropical systems get disrupted by mid level dry air.

NDG is right, I brought up a question about this in the steering patterns thread. As mentioned SAL is not that prevalent this year and shear is nothing unusual. Nothing really says Dorian or these storms can't go. This is a global problem with lack of instability and dry air, even the WPAC is struggling.

[Jimsot]

We were at least looking forward to some needed rain showers, now that even looks like a bust.

[cycloneye]

We were at least looking forward to some needed rain showers, now that even looks like a bust.

Well,the San Juan NWS is not bullish on a good deal of rain from the remanants.

viewtopic.php?f=24&p=2324304#p2324304

[wxman57]

Bones has seen enough of Dorian. Redevelopment appears to be quite unlikely.

[SapphireSea]

:uarrow: We have another thread discussing this subject, but since you guys keep going here, hostility at the MDR has not been because of shear, which is usually present this time of the year, if anything shear has been below average at the MDR most times this season so far, the hostile conditions have been because of the below average instability and not so much because of SAL outbreaks. Most of the deep tropics are below average on instability at the mid levels, thus why ACE in the nothern Hemisphere has been below average so far this summer!!!! Is a fact that tropical systems get disrupted by mid level dry air.

NDG is right, I brought up a question about this in the steering patterns thread. As mentioned SAL is not that prevalent this year and shear is nothing unusual. Nothing really says Dorian or these storms can't go. This is a global problem with lack of instability and dry air, even the WPAC is struggling.

In the case of the atlantic, I think some pro-mets have said that there really isn't badly affecting dry air at the mid-levels to suppress convection. When the system needed it most the upper levels were hostile, the storm is moving at various speeds at different level. It isn't until now that it's already degenerated into a sharp wave axis that its under an upper high. It could easily regenerate, if it had some better support from low level moisture, but what killed it was the same thing that killed Chantal, plus marginal SSTs.

I do agree though that mid-levels have been warmer over water and therefore have weaker lapse rates, and this seems to be happening worldwide. Then again we can't really judge the open water as there are no soundings at high resolutions. There are definitely pockets of instability out there, it's how we got these early systems.

[baytownwx]

Lol....If I only had the TPW animation to look at, I would still think we had a storm... (but yes, I know it's a goner)

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

[vbhoutex]

No way in the world this is a TS. Nothing like this would ever be upgraded to a TD much less a TS. Time to say goodbye to Dorian.

time to take it to the woodshead...wxman57 you get the honors so lets see it...happy hunting in august everyone, things will get better..they always do..we go through this every year, couple of early season teasers that rarely goes anywhere and season cancelled, massive frustration, etc...be patient and really your best chance is stuff that develops inside of 50W...sept and all of nov prime for my area, rock and the gang in texas shutdown sooner then nov 1 though

I'm starting to wonder if we're even going to open up. Of course when we head for the beach in Sept for a weekend we'll probably have another Humberto type storm.

[Fego]

Planets are aligning themselves...

Real-time Guidance for TROPICAL WAVE DORIAN (AL04)


This page displays a variety of guidance and information for TROPICAL WAVE DORIAN (AL04). Nearly all of the model guidance displayed in the plots on this site come from a variety of modeling centers outside of NCAR, such as NOAA, other national numerical weather prediction centers, and universities. Click here for information about who contributes to TCGP. Please be aware that your use of this page is governed by the UCAR Terms of Service and this site's disclaimer. To obtain help for any item on this page, click on the question mark beside that item.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... /al042013/

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 PM AST SAT JUL 27 2013

...DORIAN DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 54.7W
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT DORIAN NO LONGER HAS A
CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE
REMNANTS OF DORIAN WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD AT
24 MPH...39 KM/H.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE NEAR 40
MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

GALE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



REMNANTS OF DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 PM AST SAT JUL 27 2013

ASCAT AMBIGUITY DATA FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT DORIAN NO
LONGER HAD A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THUS...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS SUCCUMBED TO THE HARSH ENVIRONMENT AND HAS DEGENERATED
INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS STILL ABOUT 35 KT
ACCORDING TO THE ASCAT PASS. REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS
UNLIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR IN
THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN SHOULD
PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS IN 2-3 DAYS.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE WAVE TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 18.9N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...REMNANTS OF DORIAN
12H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

...DORIAN DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 54.7W
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES

[StormTracker]

R.I.P.

[StormTracker]

So they took it directly from "tropical storm" to "tropical depression" dissipation? Well I guess they can't say "Tropical Storm Dorian dissipated at 5PM EDT July 27"...

[northjaxpro]

It's official. Bones has spoken! We will see what the month of August will offer us.

[StormTracker]

I can already see 3 days from now the questions being asked if something develops from the remnants or the area of the remnants: "is this still Dorian", "will it be renamed Dorian", "is this now Erin",etc...To be honest, Dorian didn't sound like a name for a big, bad storm! For some reason Erin does! I have to go back and check the thread of storms that we think are going to be the dangerous ones!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

R.I.P.
http://i40.tinypic.com/2jals0n.jpg

nice

[thetruesms]

I can already see 3 days from now the questions being asked if something develops from the remnants or the area of the remnants: "is this still Dorian", "will it be renamed Dorian", "is this now Erin",etc...To be honest, Dorian didn't sound like a name for a big, bad storm! For some reason Erin does! I have to go back and check the thread of storms that we think are going to be the dangerous ones!

Have to admit, I've got a bit of a soft spot in my heart for Erin


Yeah, at about that time, I was in Norman getting dumped on trying to housetrain a new dog

As far as Dorian, I was almost a little impressed with how it kept trying to toss up convection to keep going (or, perhaps more likely, revive itself), but even the tone of the thread has shown we've just been waiting for the inevitable end for a while.

[MGC]

That was exciting....hope it stays this way all season, a few wimpy storms far out to sea......MGC

[baytownwx]

Remnants still look better than Dorian did yesterday at this exact time...fast approaching Tutt though