ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

12Z NAM pretty much the same as the 06Z...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... roup=Model Guidance&model=nam&area=namer&cycle=20130728%2012%20UTC&param=850_vort_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=M

[Hurricaneman]

This does have similarities to Andrew in 1992, but if this becomes anything close to that I will eat a sock. This however could be closer to Erin in 1995 in terms of strength if the shear forecast are correct in any way

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[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Ex-Dorian has developed a nice anticyclone (hence the outflow in all four quadrants). The upper-level trough to its west also looks a lot less menacing compared to yesterday and the day before...steady weakening.

We'll see what happens. Wouldn't be surprised if recon found a weakly closed LLC based on satellite animations and ASCAT.

[Dave]

Bringing this one up for any questions, comments, schedules, etc.

[Blown Away]

Set and waiting for take off now Cycloneye..

Is this a rush recon trip thinking exDorian could be making a comeback??

[Dave]

Todays take off is at 2 pm.

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 271558
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SAT 27 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JULY 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-057

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
       A. 28/1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0104A DORIAN
       C. 28/1600Z
       D. 19.9N 61.4W
       E. 28/1630Z TO 28/2030Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 29/0530Z
       B. AFXXX 0204A DORIAN
       C. 29/0230Z
       D. 20.4N 65.0W
       E. 29/0300Z TO 29/0700Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:  CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
       WHILE SYSTEM MAINTAINS ITS INTEGRITY. 


[cycloneye]

Ex-Dorian has developed a nice anticyclone (hence the outflow in all four quadrants). The upper-level trough to its west also looks a lot less menacing compared to yesterday and the day before...steady weakening.

We'll see what happens. Wouldn't be surprised if recon found a weakly closed LLC based on satellite animations and ASCAT.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8wvir.GIF

Recon will tell the real story about what is inside those clouds.

[jlauderdal]

I have bought gas for the generator in preparation for storms but not needed so far and that's a good thing...make sure you start your every month and use fuel stabslizer.. we had a guy on here under the handle of generator power...he is an expert so PM him with questions..he responded to me quickly and was very helpful

Sent from my MB886 using Tapatalk 2

[cycloneye]

Wheels up Dave!

URNT15 KNHC 281604
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 01 20130728
155500 1742N 06448W 0167 ///// 0155 +238 +160 360000 000 /// /// 23
155530 1742N 06448W 0166 ///// 0155 +240 +160 360000 000 /// /// 23
155600 1742N 06448W 0166 ///// 0154 +240 +161 360000 000 /// /// 23
155630 1742N 06448W 0166 ///// 0155 +240 +161 360000 000 /// /// 23
155700 1742N 06448W 0164 ///// 0153 +240 +161 360000 000 /// /// 23
155730 1742N 06448W 0163 ///// 0151 +240 +161 360000 000 /// /// 23
155800 1742N 06448W 0164 ///// 0152 +238 +161 360000 000 /// /// 23
155830 1742N 06448W 0163 ///// 0152 +235 +161 360000 000 /// /// 23
155900 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0150 +235 +161 360000 000 /// /// 23
155930 1742N 06448W 0159 ///// 0147 +232 +161 360000 000 /// /// 23
160000 1742N 06448W 0158 ///// 0145 +230 +161 360000 000 /// /// 23
160030 1742N 06449W 0153 ///// 0141 +230 +160 360000 000 /// /// 23
160100 1742N 06449W 0150 ///// 0138 +232 +159 360000 000 /// /// 23
160130 1742N 06449W 0136 ///// 0131 +235 +159 360000 000 /// /// 23
160200 1742N 06449W 0147 ///// 0137 +232 +160 360000 000 /// /// 23
160230 1742N 06449W 0143 ///// 0132 +228 +163 028001 002 /// /// 23
160300 1742N 06448W 0095 00028 0134 +232 +220 060003 007 /// /// 03
160330 1742N 06447W 9846 00272 0155 +234 +229 147004 006 /// /// 03
160400 1742N 06445W 9785 00311 0155 +237 +210 121005 005 /// /// 03
160430 1742N 06444W 9837 00284 0159 +243 +208 131005 006 /// /// 03
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Take off time is 2 pm today.

Plane has departed!.

[jlauderdal]

No, actually it was scheduled 4 days ago

Sent from my MB886 using Tapatalk 2

[Dave]

Take off time is 2 pm today.

Plane has departed!.

I thought it was noon... On it now.

[artist]

Todays take off is at 2 pm.

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 271558
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SAT 27 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JULY 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-057

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM DORIAN
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
       A. 28/1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0104A DORIAN
       C. [color=#FF0000]28/1600Z[/color]       D. 19.9N 61.4W
       E. 28/1630Z TO 28/2030Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 29/0530Z
       B. AFXXX 0204A DORIAN
       C. 29/0230Z
       D. 20.4N 65.0W
       E. 29/0300Z TO 29/0700Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:  CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
       WHILE SYSTEM MAINTAINS ITS INTEGRITY. 


aren't they taking off about now?
C. 28/1600Z
Last update Sun, 28 Jul 2013 16:05:19 UTC

[Dave]

There up now Artist..on it.

[artist]

There up now Artist..on it.

thanks Dave, I will be back around in about 3 hours if you need a break

[Blown Away]

There up now Artist..on it.

How long before they reach 91L?

[Hurricaneman]

There up now Artist..on it.

How long before they reach 91L?

Probably in about an hour

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281614
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 02 20130728
160500 1742N 06442W 9810 00307 0159 +242 +208 124005 006 /// /// 03
160530 1742N 06441W 9792 00323 0160 +239 +217 109004 005 /// /// 03
160600 1742N 06439W 9793 00324 0161 +239 +219 109005 006 /// /// 03
160630 1742N 06437W 9807 00313 0162 +240 +220 100005 005 /// /// 03
160700 1742N 06435W 9835 00287 0162 +244 +222 102005 006 /// /// 03
160730 1742N 06434W 9830 00292 0161 +244 +223 091007 008 /// /// 03
160800 1743N 06432W 9825 00296 0161 +245 +223 096008 009 /// /// 03
160830 1744N 06432W 9838 00283 0161 +245 +222 088009 010 /// /// 03
160900 1746N 06431W 9813 00306 0161 +243 +224 090009 009 /// /// 03
160930 1747N 06431W 9802 00316 0161 +240 +224 088009 010 /// /// 03
161000 1749N 06430W 9813 00306 0161 +242 +223 083010 011 /// /// 03
161030 1750N 06430W 9818 00302 0161 +242 +226 079010 010 /// /// 03
161100 1751N 06429W 9813 00307 0161 +241 +223 077011 011 /// /// 03
161130 1753N 06429W 9809 00309 0160 +241 +222 083010 011 /// /// 03
161200 1754N 06428W 9811 00307 0160 +240 +226 090010 010 /// /// 03
161230 1756N 06427W 9814 00304 0159 +244 +221 099010 011 /// /// 03
161300 1757N 06427W 9813 00305 0159 +243 +216 084010 011 /// /// 03
161330 1758N 06426W 9813 00305 0158 +243 +215 086009 010 /// /// 03
161400 1800N 06425W 9812 00305 0158 +240 +220 083010 010 /// /// 03
161430 1801N 06425W 9814 00304 0158 +241 +218 079010 011 /// /// 03
$$
;

[SFLcane]

Somewhat concerning is the european forecast near the bahamas which has very light upper level winds.

[Dave]

There up now Artist..on it.

thanks Dave, I will be back around in about 3 hours if you need a break

Sounds good Artist yes I'll need one by then.