ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

Should recon be flying the system that is a THREAT TO THE USA?

[MGC]

Enough of the Andrew comparisons already....don't want to ever see that happen again.

Looks to be a bit of rotation in that cloud mass. Looks to be midlevel though but who knows if there is something at the surface. Guess we'll find out soon......MGC

[SFLcane]

Visible loop..

[Hurricaneman]

Visible loop..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

It looks like its making a comeback and the center would be at 20.5N 61.2W

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[Blown Away]

Should recon be flying the system that is a THREAT TO THE USA?

It's been a while since Hawaii has had a threat, I'm trying to figure out why recon for Flossie is not happening?? I'm sure there some kind of gov't budget issue going on...Anybody understand?

[SFLcane]

ECM shear forecast

[Dave]

00
URNT15 KNHC 281624
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 03 20130728
161500 1803N 06424W 9809 00308 0158 +240 +218 079010 010 /// /// 03
161530 1804N 06424W 9814 00303 0158 +242 +215 083011 011 /// /// 03
161600 1805N 06423W 9811 00307 0158 +240 +220 082010 011 /// /// 03
161630 1807N 06422W 9812 00305 0158 +240 +220 083010 010 /// /// 03
161700 1808N 06422W 9813 00305 0159 +240 +219 080010 010 /// /// 03
161730 1810N 06421W 9814 00303 0158 +240 +225 083009 009 /// /// 03
161800 1811N 06421W 9812 00305 0157 +240 +221 086009 009 /// /// 03
161830 1812N 06420W 9814 00301 0157 +240 +224 080009 009 /// /// 03
161900 1814N 06419W 9812 00303 0157 +240 +222 077008 009 /// /// 03
161930 1815N 06419W 9814 00302 0157 +240 +219 069008 009 /// /// 03
162000 1817N 06418W 9811 00305 0157 +240 +221 068008 008 /// /// 03
162030 1818N 06418W 9813 00302 0157 +240 +219 073008 008 /// /// 03
162100 1819N 06417W 9798 00316 0157 +240 +221 070010 010 /// /// 03
162130 1821N 06416W 9761 00350 0157 +236 +220 070010 010 /// /// 03
162200 1822N 06416W 9772 00340 0157 +235 +221 067010 010 /// /// 03
162230 1824N 06415W 9770 00341 0157 +235 +218 068008 009 /// /// 03
162300 1825N 06415W 9773 00338 0157 +236 +214 064008 009 /// /// 03
162330 1826N 06414W 9768 00343 0158 +235 +222 064009 010 /// /// 03
162400 1828N 06413W 9769 00343 0158 +235 +225 065011 011 /// /// 03
162430 1829N 06413W 9772 00340 0158 +235 +226 065010 011 /// /// 03
$$
;

[cycloneye]

JB tweet.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2m

Outflow jet developing as upper low backs away and heat from storm tightens jet and tilts it. SST 28C

[northjaxpro]

No doubt there is a clear MLC with the system currently. Just checking in and it definitely appears to me that the envroment is gradually becoming conducive for this system to get its act together. It will be interesting to see what Recon finds shortly.

[Frank2]

It might add more rainfall to our already high seasonal total even if nothing regenerates - my local area of interior Broward County has had over 2' of rain in the past 12 days, according to the NWS...

[Alyono]

Should recon be flying the system that is a THREAT TO THE USA?

It's been a while since Hawaii has had a threat, I'm trying to figure out why recon for Flossie is not happening?? I'm sure there some kind of gov't budget issue going on...Anybody understand?

if it is a budgeting issue, dont fly Tropical Wave Dorian then

[Bocadude85]

12z GFS brings Dorian's remains to South Florida

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Visible loop..

Looking better than it has in days, perhaps in it's entire life cycle up to now, yikes.

[funster]

Should recon be flying the system that is a THREAT TO THE USA?

It's been a while since Hawaii has had a threat, I'm trying to figure out why recon for Flossie is not happening?? I'm sure there some kind of gov't budget issue going on...Anybody understand?

The govt loves cutting spending on hurricane research sadly (not political as both parties doing it):
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/2 ... 42713.html
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/0 ... ?mobile=nc

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,let's not tip to the politics side and continue to discuss about 91L/Ex Dorian.

[Dave]

[Alyono]

the fact is, recon is not needed for this system. It is fairly clear there is no closed LLC nor has there been persistent organized convection

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281634
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 04 20130728
162500 1831N 06412W 9771 00341 0158 +235 +223 067011 011 /// /// 03
162530 1832N 06412W 9769 00343 0158 +235 +224 069011 011 /// /// 03
162600 1833N 06411W 9768 00343 0157 +236 +219 080011 011 /// /// 03
162630 1835N 06410W 9773 00338 0156 +242 +203 087011 011 /// /// 03
162700 1836N 06410W 9771 00340 0157 +236 +213 086011 012 /// /// 03
162730 1838N 06409W 9770 00341 0158 +235 +223 080011 011 /// /// 03
162800 1839N 06409W 9771 00341 0158 +235 +224 084011 011 /// /// 03
162830 1840N 06408W 9771 00341 0158 +234 +222 082011 012 /// /// 03
162900 1842N 06407W 9770 00342 0157 +236 +215 086011 011 /// /// 03
162930 1843N 06407W 9770 00341 0157 +239 +211 087012 012 /// /// 03
163000 1845N 06406W 9769 00341 0156 +239 +209 078011 011 /// /// 03
163030 1846N 06406W 9768 00343 0157 +239 +209 075011 011 /// /// 03
163100 1847N 06405W 9773 00340 0159 +235 +213 058012 012 /// /// 03
163130 1849N 06404W 9770 00343 0159 +235 +214 063012 013 /// /// 03
163200 1850N 06404W 9769 00344 0159 +239 +210 074013 014 /// /// 03
163230 1852N 06403W 9770 00344 0160 +237 +211 071015 015 /// /// 03
163300 1853N 06403W 9772 00342 0160 +238 +207 070015 016 /// /// 03
163330 1854N 06402W 9772 00343 0160 +238 +210 068018 018 /// /// 03
163400 1856N 06401W 9768 00347 0160 +240 +206 069019 019 /// /// 03
163430 1857N 06401W 9772 00342 0160 +237 +211 068017 018 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Jimsot]

WINDS?
This is what an automated private weather site says currently at the west end of Anguilla.
Wind is currently from the NNW at 344°, whatever that means.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

the fact is, recon is not needed for this system. It is fairly clear there is no closed LLC nor has there been persistent organized convection

Looks closed to me...