ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#2201 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:40 am

:uarrow: Unlike yesterday, looks like new convection is popping today looking at the SSD floater loop
0 likes   

User avatar
perk
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:35 am
Location: Richmond Texas

Re:

#2202 Postby perk » Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:41 am

Alyono wrote:the fact is, recon is not needed for this system. It is fairly clear there is no closed LLC nor has there been persistent organized convection



Then why are they flying it.
0 likes   

User avatar
MortisFL
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 391
Age: 42
Joined: Mon Jul 21, 2003 9:01 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:

Re:

#2203 Postby MortisFL » Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:41 am

Alyono wrote:the fact is, recon is not needed for this system. It is fairly clear there is no closed LLC nor has there been persistent organized convection


If recon is not needed, why didn't they just cancel the flight? They cancel flights all the time.
0 likes   

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

Re:

#2204 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:43 am

gatorcane wrote::uarrow: Unlike yesterday, looks like new convection is popping today looking at the SSD floater loop


Yes, convection is on the increase and if it gets continuous we may have a problem Houston!
0 likes   

User avatar
CalmBeforeStorm
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 600
Age: 71
Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2004 7:55 pm
Location: Stuart, Florida

Re: Re:

#2205 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:44 am

Looks open from that pass but maybe close.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#2206 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:45 am

This IR Rainbow image and loop shows two things nicely:

1. The popping convection (dark red small circles)
2. The symmetric fanning of the overall blob (anticyclone has built over this system)

Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:46 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
perk
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 825
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 9:35 am
Location: Richmond Texas

Re: Re:

#2207 Postby perk » Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:45 am

Dean4Storms wrote:
gatorcane wrote::uarrow: Unlike yesterday, looks like new convection is popping today looking at the SSD floater loop


Yes, convection is on the increase and if it gets continuous we may have a problem Houston!



You mean we may have a problem Florida. :D
0 likes   

User avatar
Dave
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 13442
Age: 74
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
Location: Milan Indiana
Contact:

#2208 Postby Dave » Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:46 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 281644
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 05 20130728
163500 1858N 06400W 9756 00357 0162 +236 +205 080016 017 /// /// 03
163530 1900N 06359W 9772 00346 0164 +239 +203 084016 016 /// /// 03
163600 1902N 06359W 9772 00344 0163 +238 +206 083016 016 /// /// 03
163630 1903N 06358W 9770 00346 0164 +232 +217 073014 016 /// /// 03
163700 1905N 06357W 9772 00346 0164 +234 +218 073014 015 /// /// 03
163730 1906N 06357W 9769 00348 0163 +234 +220 075014 015 /// /// 03
163800 1908N 06356W 9772 00346 0163 +235 +217 075015 015 /// /// 03
163830 1910N 06355W 9770 00346 0163 +241 +206 075016 016 /// /// 03
163900 1911N 06355W 9773 00344 0163 +244 +201 072017 017 /// /// 03
163930 1913N 06354W 9768 00349 0163 +241 +206 069016 017 /// /// 03
164000 1914N 06353W 9772 00346 0163 +240 +206 072017 018 /// /// 03
164030 1916N 06353W 9772 00344 0163 +240 +209 075018 019 /// /// 03
164100 1918N 06352W 9771 00346 0163 +240 +211 075017 018 /// /// 03
164130 1919N 06351W 9769 00348 0163 +240 +214 075016 017 /// /// 03
164200 1921N 06350W 9770 00346 0162 +240 +210 076016 016 /// /// 03
164230 1922N 06350W 9773 00345 0163 +242 +209 076017 017 /// /// 03
164300 1924N 06349W 9769 00347 0163 +240 +213 073016 016 /// /// 03
164330 1926N 06348W 9769 00348 0163 +240 +215 070016 016 /// /// 03
164400 1927N 06348W 9770 00347 0164 +240 +218 070014 016 /// /// 03
164430 1929N 06347W 9772 00347 0164 +235 +222 068013 013 /// /// 03
$$
;
0 likes   

SapphireSea
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 430
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:13 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re:

#2209 Postby SapphireSea » Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:47 am

Alyono wrote:the fact is, recon is not needed for this system. It is fairly clear there is no closed LLC nor has there been persistent organized convection


I would have to disagree on that. There does seem to be something at the surface that is more than a sharp wave now. There have been NNW and NW winds, ASCAT shows W winds as well. May not be well-defined but there is something. I don't have much confidence on it strengthening, it seems that there is still some mid-level shear where it's headed to.

I would agree that Flossie needs to be looked at too though, it's fairly impressive that the storm is doing well in marginal to sub-marginal SST, but on the flip-side the proper watches and warnings were issued to Hawaii, and significant intensification is about as unlikely as with Ex Dorian regenerating.

It would be a matter of investigating Ex Dorian to issue watches/warnings vs. investigating Flossie to revise scientific data. Life and Property Warnings trump scientific research in this case, and probably what happened.
0 likes   
Forecast Disclaimer:

Don't be stupid. Make your own informed decisions.

User avatar
Dave
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 13442
Age: 74
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
Location: Milan Indiana
Contact:

#2210 Postby Dave » Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:48 am

Ok let's get back and stay on the discussion of the 91L/ex Dorian and leave the why or why not on recon for another day. Thanks...
0 likes   

ninel conde

#2211 Postby ninel conde » Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:49 am

i agree with alyono. its still a wave but things are improving
0 likes   

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#2212 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:50 am

Speed this up a bit and note the increase just this morning in the counter-clockwise rotation.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
0 likes   

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

Re: Re:

#2213 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:52 am

perk wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:
gatorcane wrote::uarrow: Unlike yesterday, looks like new convection is popping today looking at the SSD floater loop


Yes, convection is on the increase and if it gets continuous we may have a problem Houston!



You mean we may have a problem Florida. :D



Actually this would be Florida talking to Houston. :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145458
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2214 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:52 am

Look at the upper pattern how it has improved.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Dave
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 13442
Age: 74
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
Location: Milan Indiana
Contact:

#2215 Postby Dave » Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:52 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Dave
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 13442
Age: 74
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
Location: Milan Indiana
Contact:

#2216 Postby Dave » Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:55 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 281654
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 06 20130728
164500 1930N 06346W 9768 00350 0165 +235 +224 071012 013 /// /// 03
164530 1932N 06346W 9770 00348 0165 +235 +226 075012 013 /// /// 03
164600 1934N 06345W 9772 00347 0165 +239 +222 068014 015 /// /// 03
164630 1935N 06344W 9769 00349 0165 +240 +219 065016 016 /// /// 03
164700 1937N 06343W 9772 00347 0165 +240 +222 062015 016 /// /// 03
164730 1938N 06343W 9768 00351 0166 +240 +224 065014 014 /// /// 03
164800 1940N 06342W 9770 00350 0166 +240 +223 063014 015 /// /// 03
164830 1942N 06341W 9770 00349 0166 +240 +224 064015 015 /// /// 03
164900 1943N 06341W 9771 00347 0166 +240 +223 064016 016 /// /// 03
164930 1945N 06340W 9771 00348 0165 +240 +220 064016 017 /// /// 03
165000 1946N 06339W 9771 00348 0166 +240 +222 066014 016 /// /// 03
165030 1948N 06339W 9773 00347 0166 +240 +225 069015 015 /// /// 03
165100 1950N 06338W 9769 00350 0166 +240 +225 070015 015 /// /// 03
165130 1951N 06337W 9771 00349 0166 +240 +222 071015 015 /// /// 03
165200 1953N 06337W 9772 00349 0166 +240 +220 070016 016 /// /// 03
165230 1954N 06336W 9770 00349 0166 +240 +222 068018 018 /// /// 03
165300 1956N 06335W 9771 00348 0165 +240 +221 067018 019 /// /// 03
165330 1957N 06334W 9772 00347 0165 +240 +223 065018 019 /// /// 03
165400 1959N 06334W 9769 00349 0165 +240 +221 065016 018 /// /// 03
165430 2001N 06333W 9772 00346 0165 +240 +222 064016 018 /// /// 03
$$
;
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#2217 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:57 am

If you need, I can help with Google Earth

Image
0 likes   

SapphireSea
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 430
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 12:13 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2218 Postby SapphireSea » Sun Jul 28, 2013 11:57 am

Seeing a few overshooting tops near the suspected center, Dorian is definitely trying to regenerate. I stated last night that Dorian had finally met up with that upper high, and it's giving the system a second chance. It is all up to shear at this point, which there seems to be plenty of around, but may be moving in tandem.

If the current convection holds or builds before DMAX I would say that we will have Dorian back, but that is still to be determined.
0 likes   
Forecast Disclaimer:

Don't be stupid. Make your own informed decisions.

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10147
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2219 Postby Blown Away » Sun Jul 28, 2013 12:00 pm

12z GFS...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

Maybe just me, but it appears the L begins to gain convection as it approaches just N of Hispaniola and then loses it as it moves into Cuba and finally recurves remnants over SFL...Little deeper system compared to previous runs, still very weak...Maybe the environment ahead is improving and only time will tell..
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2220 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 28, 2013 12:01 pm

GLad the ASCAT showed what I have been seeing all morning long.
0 likes   


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests