Has anyone read this?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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charleston_hugo_veteran
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charleston_hugo_veteran
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Steve Cosby
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Gone now
The current one removed all references to Isabel. (but now talking about Henri)
I wonder if the guy writing the first one got his hand slapped.
I wonder if the guy writing the first one got his hand slapped.
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bayouwxman
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Latest discussion has no mention because it's just an update on their earlier forecast for any changes. NWS forecast offices generally release 2 full discussions per day...1 overnight, 1 early-mid afternoon. Any discussions between are just for any updates or changes, so you'll notice they typically don't go into nearly as much detail.
But, Steve, you also have a point...the forecasters have differing views on how much should be discussed sometimes. In this case though, I just think there is no reference made because Isabel is so far away and the discussion was just a quick update.
But, Steve, you also have a point...the forecasters have differing views on how much should be discussed sometimes. In this case though, I just think there is no reference made because Isabel is so far away and the discussion was just a quick update.
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Steve Cosby
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Makes sense
OK, that makes sense.
BTW, where did this "stall" thing come from. I haven't been able to follow the advisories today. Did NHC really stall the system in the Bahamas?
BTW, where did this "stall" thing come from. I haven't been able to follow the advisories today. Did NHC really stall the system in the Bahamas?
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bayouwxman
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NHC doesn't stall it in their forecasts because the potential stall is beyond their 5 day forecast period.
However, the scenario that the NWS Melbourne discusses is very possible. It's quite common to see a trough pass a storm by, leaving it in weak steering currents. That's why you're seeing some of the mid-range models forecasting a stall...they have that trough approaching, but not being deep enough to pull Isabel north. As a result, she's left behind until the next trough comes along.
However, the scenario that the NWS Melbourne discusses is very possible. It's quite common to see a trough pass a storm by, leaving it in weak steering currents. That's why you're seeing some of the mid-range models forecasting a stall...they have that trough approaching, but not being deep enough to pull Isabel north. As a result, she's left behind until the next trough comes along.
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