ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MiamiensisWx]

It takes more than 20-30kt easterly winds to classify a depression. Normal tradewinds are 15-25 kts. Pressure near Dorian appears to be 1018-1019mb with pressure in the NE Caribbean 1017mb. That's quite high. No evidence of surface circulation, only mid-level. Still no global model support of redevelopment, only statistical.

Here's a very high-res shot of Caribbean & Dorian:

http://models.weatherbell.com/goes/gif/ ... urrent.gif

Why do you think that the models aren't indicating redevelopment? Is low-level dry air still an issue?

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

latest

[Hammy]

I will say in regards to the models that I believe this will be the first time they have actual data measurements from the system.

[Canelaw99]

BUT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD LEAD
TO THE REFORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS

That's strange wording. A cyclone could form at any time but there's only a 30% chance?

I was thinking the exact same thing....

[gatorcane]

BUT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD LEAD
TO THE REFORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS

That's strange wording. A cyclone could form at any time but there's only a 30% chance?

I was thinking the exact same thing....

How often do you see them say that but only give it a 30% chance of development? Almost always you see code red when they use those statements

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281804
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 13 20130728
175500 2115N 06106W 9769 00351 0169 +234 +217 087021 022 027 000 00
175530 2113N 06108W 9770 00351 0169 +235 +219 088021 022 027 001 03
175600 2112N 06109W 9768 00352 0169 +235 +219 087021 021 027 001 00
175630 2111N 06111W 9773 00349 0168 +235 +213 091020 022 028 000 03
175700 2109N 06113W 9770 00350 0168 +235 +212 088021 022 028 000 00
175730 2108N 06114W 9769 00351 0168 +235 +213 089022 023 027 000 00
175800 2107N 06116W 9769 00350 0167 +235 +219 089023 023 028 001 00
175830 2106N 06117W 9773 00346 0166 +235 +216 089023 024 027 000 03
175900 2104N 06119W 9769 00350 0166 +235 +213 090023 024 027 000 00
175930 2103N 06120W 9772 00345 0164 +239 +206 090023 024 028 001 00
180000 2102N 06122W 9772 00347 0164 +238 +206 089024 025 029 001 03
180030 2100N 06124W 9769 00348 0163 +236 +215 087024 025 029 002 00
180100 2059N 06125W 9772 00345 0163 +235 +219 087024 025 028 000 00
180130 2058N 06127W 9771 00346 0162 +235 +218 088025 025 029 000 03
180200 2056N 06128W 9770 00346 0162 +235 +222 085024 025 027 000 03
180230 2055N 06130W 9770 00345 0162 +235 +221 085024 024 028 000 00
180300 2054N 06131W 9770 00344 0161 +236 +224 083023 024 030 001 00
180330 2053N 06133W 9772 00344 0161 +237 +219 084023 025 028 001 00
180400 2051N 06135W 9773 00342 0161 +235 +224 086022 024 027 001 03
180430 2050N 06136W 9769 00344 0160 +236 +219 084025 026 029 001 03
$$
;

[Dave]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 17:59Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 17:52Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 21.3N 61.0W
Location: 385 miles (620 km) to the ENE (59°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 310 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 100° at 21 knots (From the E at ~ 24.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 24°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 24°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Overcast / Undercast
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1017 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 110° at 25 knots (From the ESE at ~ 28.7 mph)

[Riptide]

BUT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD LEAD
TO THE REFORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS

That's strange wording. A cyclone could form at any time but there's only a 30% chance?

I was thinking the exact same thing....

How often do you see them say that but only give it a 30% chance of development? Almost always you see code red when they use those statements

Probably trying to cover all their bases if recon finds a closed circulation.

[jlauderdal]

i agree with alyono. its still a wave but things are improving

Recon will be the judge of that

Sent from my MB886 using Tapatalk 2

[perk]

It takes more than 20-30kt easterly winds to classify a depression. Normal tradewinds are 15-25 kts. Pressure near Dorian appears to be 1018-1019mb with pressure in the NE Caribbean 1017mb. That's quite high. No evidence of surface circulation, only mid-level. Still no global model support of redevelopment, only statistical.

Here's a very high-res shot of Caribbean & Dorian:

http://models.weatherbell.com/goes/gif/ ... urrent.gif

Dorian is not in that satelite shot.

[HURAKAN]

[SapphireSea]

It takes more than 20-30kt easterly winds to classify a depression. Normal tradewinds are 15-25 kts. Pressure near Dorian appears to be 1018-1019mb with pressure in the NE Caribbean 1017mb. That's quite high. No evidence of surface circulation, only mid-level. Still no global model support of redevelopment, only statistical.

Here's a very high-res shot of Caribbean & Dorian:

http://models.weatherbell.com/goes/gif/ ... urrent.gif

Dorian is not in that satelite shot.

It's very high res. You may need to scroll using your browser or image viewer.

[tolakram]

It takes more than 20-30kt easterly winds to classify a depression. Normal tradewinds are 15-25 kts. Pressure near Dorian appears to be 1018-1019mb with pressure in the NE Caribbean 1017mb. That's quite high. No evidence of surface circulation, only mid-level. Still no global model support of redevelopment, only statistical.

Here's a very high-res shot of Caribbean & Dorian:

http://models.weatherbell.com/goes/gif/ ... urrent.gif

Dorian is not in that satelite shot.

Yes it is. Maybe you can't see the entire image? It's fairly large.

[Dave]

00
URNT15 KNHC 281814
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 14 20130728
180500 2049N 06138W 9773 00342 0160 +236 +220 083026 028 030 000 03
180530 2047N 06139W 9767 00345 0160 +235 +220 083027 028 030 001 03
180600 2046N 06141W 9771 00340 0159 +235 +222 084027 028 029 000 03
180630 2045N 06142W 9768 00344 0159 +235 +225 087024 027 030 000 00
180700 2043N 06144W 9770 00344 0159 +235 +223 089024 025 027 000 00
180730 2042N 06146W 9770 00341 0157 +234 +222 092025 026 029 001 00
180800 2041N 06147W 9772 00339 0156 +235 +223 092024 025 028 001 00
180830 2039N 06149W 9770 00340 0156 +234 +224 091024 025 028 001 03
180900 2038N 06150W 9773 00337 0155 +235 +217 089024 025 029 001 00
180930 2037N 06152W 9768 00340 0154 +240 +203 089029 030 030 001 03
181000 2036N 06153W 9774 00336 0155 +238 +201 090027 030 029 001 03
181030 2034N 06155W 9769 00339 0154 +235 +212 093026 026 030 001 00
181100 2033N 06156W 9770 00338 0153 +235 +219 092025 026 030 002 03
181130 2032N 06158W 9769 00338 0153 +235 +224 091024 025 030 000 03
181200 2030N 06200W 9774 00334 0153 +235 +221 092024 025 029 000 03
181230 2029N 06201W 9770 00338 0153 +235 +223 098023 023 030 000 03
181300 2028N 06203W 9772 00336 0151 +236 +222 102024 025 029 001 00
181330 2026N 06204W 9769 00336 0150 +235 +223 101025 025 030 001 00
181400 2025N 06206W 9772 00332 0148 +242 +213 104028 029 031 000 00
181430 2024N 06207W 9774 00328 0146 +242 +214 103029 030 032 000 03
$$
;

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

People need to let recon actually investigate the storm before jumping to conclusions. They've been surveying the extreme northern portion of the invest.

Patience.

[HURAKAN]

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

No doubt there is a circulation there , The question is if its at the surface.

[gatorcane]

Convection is waning some but that is expected as we head towards DMIN. Outflow is very impressive and there is still some popcorn convection popping plus there is good cyclonic rotation. If this thing gets a nice convective burst near the possible LLC, we could be in business. SST only get warmer as the system heads west, just needs the shear to stay low.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/flash-rgb-long.html

No doubt there is a circulation there , The question is if its at the surface.

Absolutely

['CaneFreak]

Very little in the way of deep convection firing this afternoon leads me to believe the burst of convection we saw earlier had more to do with DMAX than with any kind of reorganizing TC. I am about 95 % confident this is still a wave with a strong MLC. If it had an LLC, we would be seeing lots more deep convection.