ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dave]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 18:18Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 06

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 18:15Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 20.4N 62.2W
Location: 287 miles (462 km) to the ENE (61°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 310 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 100° at 30 knots (From the E at ~ 34.5 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 24°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 24°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1014 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 110° at 35 knots (From the ESE at ~ 40.2 mph)

[Dean4Storms]

I've seen no outflows at all from any of the convection. I believe there is an LLC near 19.5 and 60.5 with the system still tilted to the mid level circulation we see NNE of there. Might have a 40mph Tropical Storm. We'll see what Recon says soon enough.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281824
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 15 20130728
181500 2023N 06209W 9768 00332 0145 +235 +222 099031 031 035 001 03
181530 2021N 06211W 9772 00327 0143 +235 +226 099030 032 036 000 03
181600 2020N 06212W 9772 00324 0141 +236 +226 103032 032 035 001 03
181630 2019N 06214W 9772 00325 0139 +245 +213 104032 033 035 000 00
181700 2018N 06215W 9772 00326 0140 +239 +225 104029 031 034 000 00
181730 2016N 06217W 9770 00326 0139 +239 +236 103025 027 033 002 03
181800 2015N 06218W 9771 00324 0138 +240 +236 104022 023 030 001 00
181830 2014N 06220W 9772 00323 0136 +247 +229 109019 021 026 000 00
181900 2013N 06221W 9772 00320 0134 +247 +232 107018 018 026 000 03
181930 2011N 06223W 9770 00321 0133 +247 +234 098014 017 025 000 03
182000 2010N 06224W 9771 00321 0133 +249 +235 090010 013 021 000 00
182030 2009N 06226W 9772 00321 0133 +245 +236 062007 008 019 001 00
182100 2007N 06227W 9770 00323 0134 +242 +238 032007 008 019 000 00
182130 2006N 06228W 9771 00323 0136 +237 //// 017010 013 020 001 05
182200 2005N 06230W 9773 00324 //// +228 //// 353014 015 021 000 01
182230 2003N 06231W 9772 00324 //// +225 //// 354015 015 020 000 05
182300 2002N 06232W 9772 00322 0136 +227 //// 002017 018 022 001 05
182330 2000N 06234W 9770 00324 0137 +233 +227 354018 019 024 000 00
182400 1959N 06235W 9769 00324 0137 +234 +226 352017 018 024 000 03
182430 1957N 06236W 9773 00323 0139 +230 +228 351016 017 024 000 03
$$
;

1013 mb extrap

[tailgater]

I thoght thet would find a weak LLC but they are still finding easterly wind west of 91l so I'm quickly becoming a doubter

[Alyono]

recon is finding a wind shift 2 full degrees west of the MLC

[Blown Away]

recon is finding a wind shift 2 full degrees west of the MLC

Explain?

[Alyono]

recon is finding a wind shift 2 full degrees west of the MLC

Explain?

20N and 62.5W is where any surface center is

[gatorcane]

I think they need to go more ENE to 20.5N 60.5W and check out what is going on there.

['CaneFreak]

If you are WEST of an LLC, your low level winds should be out of the west, not the east. What he is saying is it's still a MLC or that the LLC is much further to the west.

This also indicates that the MLC and LLC are still not stacked vertically and so this indicates that the system will likely take a while to redevelop.

recon is finding a wind shift 2 full degrees west of the MLC

Explain?

[Alyono]

I think they need to go more ENE to 20.5N 60.5W and check out what is going on there.

they just found the surface feature. 120NM west

[HURAKAN]

[tailgater]

Or a center well west of where we all thoght it would be

[gatorcane]

But couldn't a new surface feature be forming there and the one they are checking out 120NM further west is in the process of dissipating?

I would think they would want to check that area out next.

[HURAKAN]

wide view

[Alyono]

But couldn't a new surface feature be forming there and the one they are checking out 120NM further west is in the process of dissipating?

I would they they would want to check that area out.

pressures are the lowest where they found the surface feature.

It's there

[HURAKAN]

wide view

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281834
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 16 20130728
182500 1956N 06238W 9771 00325 0141 +231 +226 357016 017 023 000 03
182530 1955N 06239W 9769 00329 0142 +235 +225 001016 017 023 001 03
182600 1953N 06240W 9771 00328 0143 +235 +224 004016 016 022 001 00
182630 1952N 06242W 9770 00329 0143 +235 +222 010015 016 021 000 03
182700 1950N 06243W 9772 00328 0144 +235 +222 010014 015 021 001 00
182730 1949N 06244W 9772 00329 0144 +235 +223 009013 014 020 000 03
182800 1947N 06246W 9769 00332 0144 +236 +217 012013 013 020 000 03
182830 1946N 06247W 9773 00327 0144 +235 +220 008012 013 021 000 03
182900 1945N 06248W 9768 00333 0145 +235 +224 012012 012 019 000 03
182930 1943N 06250W 9769 00332 0145 +235 +224 014012 012 020 000 03
183000 1942N 06251W 9770 00331 0146 +235 +227 015011 012 020 000 00
183030 1940N 06253W 9771 00330 0146 +235 +225 018011 012 020 000 00
183100 1939N 06254W 9772 00331 0146 +235 +224 025011 012 020 000 03
183130 1939N 06254W 9772 00331 0145 +235 +226 023011 011 020 000 00
183200 1936N 06257W 9770 00330 0145 +235 +227 015009 011 017 001 03
183230 1934N 06257W 9770 00331 0145 +235 +227 000005 007 /// /// 03
183300 1934N 06255W 9771 00330 0145 +235 +228 006003 004 018 000 00
183330 1934N 06253W 9771 00330 0145 +235 +226 005004 004 019 000 00
183400 1933N 06251W 9769 00332 0145 +235 +225 001004 005 018 001 00
183430 1933N 06249W 9771 00330 0145 +235 +225 002005 006 020 000 00
$$
;

[tailgater]

that wind shift or LLC is now visible on the GHCC site rapid upate view.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[Steve H.]

I don't see evidence of an llcc. If we had one I'd be concerned in south/central Florida since the ULL to the west of 91L is rettrogrding and providing outflow for "him." Convection not that impressive, but things can always change.

[Dave]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 18:36Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 18:33Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 19.6N 62.9W
Location: 222 miles (358 km) to the ENE (68°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 300 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 21°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 21°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Overcast / Undercast
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1015 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind Direction: Bearing was unavailable.
Estimated Surface Wind Speed: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)