Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[RL3AO]

[chaser1]

Well dont look now, but if you follow the moisture feed from Dorian all the way southeast to well southwest of the Cape Verde Islands...... I can't help but see what looks like some increase convection along with a little evidence of spin. It ain't August yet......just sayin'

[TheStormExpert]

that combined with the dry air make me assume the peak of the season will be rather slow. 2 straight storms now have fallen apart over deep tropical waters. something isnt favorable and im not buying its still july as the reason. this has been the case for 3 seasons now.

Because it's July! Were you expecting 2008 Bertha? Besides, Cape Verde was dead quiet in 2005 and we know how that turned out...SAL dominates the first two months of the season and it's usually not an issue during the peak months.

2008 was an analog year chosen for this season after all. Of course i'm not anywhere near being a professional meteorologist so I really don't know much.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Vertical instability has been "down" because the Intertropical Convergence Zone has been shifted south due to the mammoth high pressure (another reason for reduced vertical instability) that has dominated so far this season. It will weaken next month as it always does, the ITCZ should lift northward, and instability should reach normal levels given the frequency and strength of these tropical waves in July (and even June). SAL has been way lower than it typically is during this time of year.

I'm expecting a good storm or two in the MDR, if not more. This season isn't like the past 3.

[TheStormExpert]

Vertical instability has been "down" because the Intertropical Convergence Zone has been shifted south due to the mammoth high pressure (another reason for reduced vertical instability) that has dominated so far this season. It will weaken next month as it always does, the ITCZ should lift northward, and instability should reach normal levels given the frequency and strength of these tropical waves in July (and even June). SAL has been way lower than it typically is during this time of year.

I'm expecting a good storm or two in the MDR, if not more. This season isn't like the past 3.

Your thinking actually seems reasonable. Dorian fell apart because for a big part it was removed from the ITCZ a lot sooner than normal since the ITCZ is still far south for this time of year. That meant it lost its moisture supply and had to work on it's own to survive which became really hard. I would say about 75% of this has to be blamed on the very strong High centered just to the north of the MDR. In 2008 Bertha probably was able to get to the strength it got because the High to the north was much weaker compared to this July which allowed the ITCZ to be much farther north which meant everything was working well for it to become stronger unlike what the situation is now with Dorian. I think the whole key to getting more normal instability levels in the MDR is having the ITCZ lift north which will be interesting to see if it does so in the coming weeks.

[northjaxpro]

I agree that once the ITCZ lifts north, activity will pick up out in the tropical Atlantic.

[ninel conde]

August looks to start out with a east coast trof, low over se canada, and a neg NAO. similar to the last 3 seasons.


2004 instability:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... ns2004.gif

2005:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... ns2005.gif

2013:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... t_THDV.gif

this season is shaping up alot like last season. maybe if the negative NAO destroys the atlantic ridge a few waves may be able to develop out of the deep tropics and recurve east of bermuda.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yes sir, looking like its continuing right where last season left off. east coast being dominated by troughs and fronts sweeping down to gulf. Its not just sporadic its every week. In fact like ninel said the nws is forecasting another moderately strong trougb to develop next weekend.

[ninel conde]

Yes sir, looking like its continuing right where last season left off. east coast being dominated by troughs and fronts sweeping down to gulf. Its not just sporadic its every week. In fact like ninel said the nws is forecasting another moderately strong trougb to develop next weekend.

Joe Bastardi dropped his ACE forecast from 165 to 140. my guess is that will go lower. he did say last week summer is over for the northeast, meaning many fronts to come i guess. not an oficial forecast but this pattern does not favor anything big in the GOM as a threat to the US, like last season.

[ninel conde]

latest GFS looks rather dry.

[sunnyday]

IF the season is a dud as it has been so far (expected or not), how could the experts have been so incorrect with their before season predictions? They were really laying it on about the number of storms and how close to landfall, etc.

[Hurricane Alexis]

4 storms before August doesn't make a season a dud, especially when 2 formed in the MDR, albeit weak. As for the heart of the season, we will see what happens. Hopefully the forecasts are wrong about increased landfalls.

[Stormlover2012]

Not even August and we have 4 name storms, we will have 3 in August and 5 in sept atleast 2-3 in oct so that puts the number at 15!!! It won't be a dud season

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Not even August and we have 4 name storms, we will have 3 in August and 5 in sept atleast 2-3 in oct so that puts the number at 15!!! It won't be a dud season

I look at it as a quality vs quantity issue. I'd rather have fewer storms of a higher grade than many storms of a lower grade.

[sunnyday]

I have a feeling, no data, that this season won't be nearly as active as was predicted before the season. These duds we've had may be indicative of a slow time until November. Any thoughts?

[RL3AO]

I have a feeling, no data, that this season won't be nearly as active as was predicted before the season. These duds we've had may be indicative of a slow time until November. Any thoughts?

So by duds you mean two tropical waves forming east of the Caribbean, including the second most-eastward forming tropical storm ever recorded in July, both of which are extremely unusual for July?

[Ntxw]

I certainly don't think it was a dud. Yes, I am concerned about lack of instability from the MDR and some prevalent dry air hanging around going forward for majors, but everything else has not been that bad. Every year before the season gets going 2005 gets thrown around a lot especially this year since it was neutral and everyone had monster numbers thinking July would repeat 05. I'm glad we got that period over with and no more talk of the anomalous crazy season, which only helped fuel the expectations so it may 'feel' like a dud in that aspect when reality it wasn't.

I posted in the steering patterns thread that 2001 was a good analog based on worldwide SST's, it was a late bloomer season and had some big storms.

[SouthFloridian92]

I think y'all got spoiled by the 2005 season and now you people think it's going to happen every year. But seasons like 2005 are something that only happen once in a lifetime.

[Hurricane Alexis]

There's no indication that this season will be inactive. Even 2009, which featured an el nino and had no named storms until mid-August had 9 storms between then and November.

[Hurricaneman]

Even if we only get 1 major this year all I can think about is 1992 where not only was that 1 major a cat 5, it slammed into South Florida as a cat 5 so its not smart to let your guard down even if in some way it ends up being a slow season

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