ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Think they will check out 20.5N/60.5W??

[cycloneye]

It certainly looks like something is spinning up at 20.5N, 60.5W...

What is important to see if that is a closed LLC or a MLC. Let's see if recon goes that way.

[AEWspotter]

Recon is finding really light winds right now west of our suspected location. Indicative of lower level winds that are still organizing beneath the mid-level circulation?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281934
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 22 20130728
192500 1900N 06201W 9771 00334 0150 +235 +224 195010 010 018 002 03
192530 1900N 06159W 9770 00334 0149 +235 +225 197010 010 018 000 03
192600 1900N 06157W 9772 00332 0149 +235 +223 195011 011 018 001 00
192630 1900N 06155W 9770 00333 0149 +235 +224 196011 011 018 000 03
192700 1900N 06153W 9772 00333 0150 +235 +224 196011 011 019 000 00
192730 1900N 06152W 9770 00335 0149 +234 +224 197012 012 018 001 03
192800 1900N 06150W 9770 00333 0149 +235 +223 196012 013 019 000 03
192830 1900N 06148W 9773 00330 0149 +235 +222 189012 013 019 001 00
192900 1900N 06146W 9770 00333 0149 +235 +222 190012 013 019 000 00
192930 1900N 06144W 9770 00334 0149 +233 +224 191013 013 016 000 00
193000 1900N 06142W 9769 00334 0148 +233 +227 188014 015 018 001 00
193030 1900N 06140W 9771 00331 0147 +234 +227 184016 016 019 001 03
193100 1900N 06138W 9772 00330 0145 +242 +213 179017 018 020 001 03
193130 1900N 06136W 9772 00328 0143 +245 +203 177018 018 019 001 00
193200 1900N 06134W 9769 00331 0144 +245 +204 181017 018 020 001 00
193230 1900N 06132W 9769 00331 0144 +243 +205 180018 018 020 001 03
193300 1900N 06130W 9773 00328 0145 +242 +205 178018 018 020 000 00
193330 1900N 06129W 9770 00331 0145 +240 +206 175017 018 019 001 03
193400 1901N 06127W 9770 00331 0145 +238 +209 157016 017 /// /// 03
193430 1903N 06128W 9773 00329 0146 +240 +206 149015 016 022 001 00
$$
;

[abajan]

If I were to guess, I would imagine we will continue to see sporadic convection throughout the afternoon, but more impressive bursting late this evening & into tomm. Based on the upper air charts, I would guess outflow to improve further tomm and expand. Assuming of course NHC's digestion of latter day model data (coupled by data from today's recon), would guess that the 5 p.m. TWO might bump chances of development to 50%-60% range.

TWos are issued at 2 p.m., 8 p.m., 2 a.m. and 8 a.m. but if there's an advisory, that would indeed come at 5 p.m.

[chaser1]

Good question regarding the renaming of the floater to "Dorian". I don't know the answer to that but my guess would be that there's some relevance to it.

Anyone know how much longer on the flying the system on this mission, and if/when the next scheduled mission is?

[cycloneye]

If I were to guess, I would imagine we will continue to see sporadic convection throughout the afternoon, but more impressive bursting late this evening & into tomm. Based on the upper air charts, I would guess outflow to improve further tomm and expand. Assuming of course NHC's digestion of latter day model data (coupled by data from today's recon), would guess that the 5 p.m. TWO might bump chances of development to 50%-60% range.

TWos are issued at 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. but if there's an advisory, that would indeed come at 5 p.m.

Also,NHC can do a Special TWO apart from the normal times if is warrant and bump the %.

[gatorcane]

If 20.5N, 60.5W is where a new center is forming or has formed - then no reason why 91L can't get going a bit faster as it looks like it has a nice anticyclone sitting right over it with basically no shear. Southerly shear does loom to the west but it appears to be moving west in tandem with 91L.

[HURAKAN]

[Dave]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 19:36Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 10

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 19:36Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 19.1N 61.5W
Location: 302 miles (487 km) to the E (81°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 300 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 150° at 14 knots (From the SSE at ~ 16.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 21°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 21°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Overcast / Undercast
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1015 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind Direction: Bearing was unavailable.
Estimated Surface Wind Speed: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph)

[chaser1]

TWos are issued at 2 p.m., 8 p.m., 2 a.m. and 8 a.m. but if there's an advisory, that would indeed come at 5 p.m.[/quote]

Oops! Of course, "my bad" Meant 8:00pm

[artist]

Dave, ready to take over, sorry I'm late

[HURAKAN]

[SunnyThoughts]

Regardless if they upgrade or not...he looks MUCH better than yesterday for sure. Persistant little storm. Interesting to see what Recon finds..last couple of days been ramping up at night and diminishing during the day...today doesn't seem to fit that pattern.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281944
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 23 20130728
193500 1904N 06130W 9769 00333 0147 +240 +206 149015 015 021 001 03
193530 1906N 06131W 9771 00332 0147 +237 +215 147015 015 022 000 03
193600 1907N 06132W 9771 00332 0147 +235 +220 148014 015 021 000 03
193630 1909N 06133W 9770 00333 0149 +235 +223 147013 014 019 000 03
193700 1910N 06135W 9771 00335 0150 +235 +224 147010 012 020 000 00
193730 1912N 06136W 9772 00336 0151 +235 +228 148008 009 016 000 00
193800 1913N 06137W 9771 00336 0152 +233 +227 154006 007 016 000 00
193830 1915N 06138W 9770 00337 0152 +232 +225 160005 006 017 002 03
193900 1916N 06140W 9771 00336 0152 +233 +225 157006 006 017 000 03
193930 1917N 06141W 9772 00336 0152 +233 +227 150006 006 015 000 00
194000 1919N 06142W 9770 00337 0152 +235 +222 140006 007 016 001 00
194030 1920N 06143W 9771 00337 0153 +235 +223 126006 006 014 001 00
194100 1922N 06145W 9770 00338 0153 +235 +227 118006 006 015 001 03
194130 1923N 06146W 9770 00337 0153 +234 +228 115005 006 012 001 00
194200 1925N 06147W 9772 00336 0152 +235 +225 119006 006 015 001 00
194230 1926N 06148W 9770 00337 0152 +235 +222 120007 007 014 002 03
194300 1928N 06149W 9772 00335 0152 +235 +225 105007 007 013 000 00
194330 1929N 06151W 9772 00336 0152 +234 +225 113008 008 015 001 00
194400 1930N 06152W 9769 00338 0151 +235 +221 120008 009 016 001 00
194430 1932N 06153W 9772 00334 0151 +239 +218 130009 009 015 001 00
$$
;

[Ivanhater]

If this was a wave that never had a name before, this would be very suspicious....honestly did not think it would look this good still

[chaser1]

If 20.5N, 60.5W is where a new center is forming or has formed - then no reason why 91L can't get going a bit faster as it looks like it has a nice anticyclone sitting right over it with basically no shear. Southerly shear does loom to the west but it appears to be moving west in tandem with 91L.

Yep, I'd agree with that..... ; I think its present motion may be closer to 285 (though hard to tell without a defined center)

[artist]

Dave, ready to take over, sorry I'm late

[tailgater]

I think they are out there on a joy ride probably making double time on a Sunday

[SunnyThoughts]

If this was a wave that never had a name before, this would be very suspicious....honestly did not think it would look this good still

No doubt about that Ivan, looking good for the moment. Glad recon is out there while its on an upswing.