ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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#2361 Postby artist » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:51 pm

Dave, ready to take over, sorry I'm late
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#2362 Postby EmeraldCoast93 » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:51 pm

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
350 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IN THE REMNANTS OF
DORIAN...LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND CONSISTS OF A SHARP SURFACE
TROUGH.
THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE WELL NORTH OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.

ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
REGENERATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 20 MPH...PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO THROUGH MONDAY...AND MOVING OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.
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#2363 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:54 pm

Image
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#2364 Postby Dave » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:55 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 281954
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 24 20130728
194500 1933N 06154W 9771 00335 0150 +238 +218 133010 010 017 001 00
194530 1935N 06156W 9769 00336 0150 +236 +218 134011 011 016 000 00
194600 1936N 06157W 9772 00334 0150 +235 +223 133010 011 018 001 03
194630 1938N 06158W 9770 00334 0150 +236 +223 128010 011 015 000 03
194700 1939N 06159W 9770 00335 0149 +240 +217 127010 010 018 000 00
194730 1941N 06201W 9771 00335 0149 +237 +216 131009 010 016 000 03
194800 1942N 06202W 9769 00335 0149 +235 +218 132010 010 015 000 00
194830 1944N 06203W 9773 00331 0149 +231 +226 127009 009 018 000 03
194900 1945N 06204W 9770 00334 0149 +234 +225 117009 009 017 001 03
194930 1947N 06206W 9771 00331 0148 +233 +226 116010 011 018 000 03
195000 1948N 06207W 9770 00334 0149 +235 +222 114011 012 018 000 00
195030 1950N 06208W 9770 00334 0149 +235 +220 115012 012 019 003 00
195100 1951N 06210W 9770 00333 0148 +235 +221 119013 014 019 001 03
195130 1953N 06211W 9770 00334 0148 +235 +220 115014 014 018 002 00
195200 1954N 06212W 9769 00334 0149 +232 +226 111013 013 016 001 00
195230 1956N 06213W 9770 00334 0149 +231 +229 109015 016 017 000 00
195300 1957N 06215W 9770 00333 0148 +233 +227 108016 017 019 000 00
195330 1958N 06216W 9769 00335 0149 +234 +226 105015 017 019 001 00
195400 1959N 06218W 9774 00330 0149 +231 +230 101014 015 018 001 00
195430 2000N 06220W 9773 00332 0149 +231 +230 102014 015 020 000 03
$$
;
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#2365 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:56 pm

Finally...they are heading back to the area where the lowest pressure was found earlier...thought they were never gonna head back up that way
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#2366 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:57 pm

I need to step away. If anyone can, please take over the GE graphics!
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Re:

#2367 Postby artist » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:58 pm

HURAKAN wrote:I need to step away. If anyone can, please take over the GE graphics!

I can get both, HURAKAN
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#2368 Postby artist » Sun Jul 28, 2013 2:59 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2369 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:02 pm

12Z GFS ensembles..didnt see it posted

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... ck_gfs.png
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2370 Postby Nimbus » Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:02 pm

Looking at the satellite presentation there is high Cirrus outflow rotating clockwise without much apparent shear.
Strong burst of convection where the center of circulation should be, but it could be an illusion.
Lowest surface pressures might have been missed if its regenerating over a small center with a steep pressure gradient.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2371 Postby ronjon » Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:03 pm

Rut-roh on those 18z models. We better hope exDorian just stays a wave!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2372 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:03 pm

I'd say that low-level dry air is hindering sustained convection...note the band of stratocumulus dividing the unstable and stable air masses SE of ex-Dorian.

Shear isn't the problem. Dry air is.
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#2373 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:04 pm

Many of them get this into the Gulf. I wonder what kind of conditions would be there should it make it. Those fronts have been swinging all the way down to the Gulf the last few weeks which would create horrible shear should one be present. Is that looking like a possibility?
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Re: Re:

#2374 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:05 pm

artist wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:I need to step away. If anyone can, please take over the GE graphics!

I can get both, HURAKAN


Thanks!
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#2375 Postby Dave » Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:05 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 282004
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 25 20130728
195500 2001N 06221W 9769 00335 //// +230 //// 103015 016 020 000 05
195530 2002N 06223W 9770 00334 0148 +231 +229 108015 016 017 000 00
195600 2003N 06225W 9769 00332 0147 +231 +229 107015 016 016 000 03
195630 2003N 06227W 9772 00329 0146 +236 +225 116016 016 015 000 03
195700 2003N 06229W 9773 00327 0145 +237 +222 123014 016 014 001 03
195730 2004N 06231W 9770 00330 0145 +232 +227 123012 013 017 000 00
195800 2004N 06233W 9771 00330 //// +230 //// 118011 012 018 000 05
195830 2004N 06235W 9770 00329 //// +230 //// 115011 012 019 001 01
195900 2004N 06237W 9772 00327 0143 +230 +230 119011 012 020 000 05
195930 2004N 06239W 9773 00325 0141 +237 +229 125010 011 020 000 03
200000 2004N 06241W 9769 00328 0141 +235 +229 118012 013 020 000 03
200030 2004N 06243W 9772 00325 0140 +235 +232 119010 011 020 001 03
200100 2004N 06245W 9770 00325 0137 +247 +233 099007 008 019 000 03
200130 2004N 06247W 9783 00313 0136 +242 +234 116006 008 /// /// 03
200200 2002N 06247W 9745 00350 0140 +235 +234 169002 004 019 000 00
200230 2000N 06247W 9749 00346 //// +231 //// 210001 002 017 000 01
200300 1958N 06247W 9774 00324 0143 +230 +230 296003 003 016 000 00
200330 1956N 06247W 9769 00329 0143 +230 +230 301004 005 015 001 03
200400 1955N 06247W 9772 00328 0144 +235 +228 282005 006 015 001 00
200430 1953N 06247W 9770 00331 0144 +235 +225 282005 006 013 002 00
$$
;
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#2376 Postby Alyono » Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:07 pm

a closed low has been found by recon... near 62.8W
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Re:

#2377 Postby Dave » Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm

artist wrote:Dave, ready to take over, sorry I'm late


Grab the images Artist and I'll stay on obs for awhile longer...besides I'm setting here eating as I go. ;) I'm ok for another hour.
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Re:

#2378 Postby hurricanekid416 » Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:10 pm

Alyono wrote:a closed low has been found by recon... near 62.8W



So it's a td?
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#2379 Postby artist » Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:12 pm

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Re: Re:

#2380 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:15 pm

hurricanekid416 wrote:
Alyono wrote:a closed low has been found by recon... near 62.8W



So it's a td?


Have to see if Recon posts a VDM.
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