ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 282014
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 26 20130728
200500 1951N 06247W 9769 00332 0145 +232 +229 295005 005 016 001 03
200530 1949N 06247W 9769 00333 0145 +233 +231 308006 006 016 000 05
200600 1947N 06247W 9772 00330 0146 +235 +230 298006 007 015 000 03
200630 1945N 06247W 9768 00333 0146 +235 +230 297007 007 016 001 00
200700 1944N 06247W 9772 00330 0147 +235 +228 298005 007 014 002 00
200730 1942N 06247W 9770 00332 0146 +235 +226 301005 005 015 000 00
200800 1940N 06247W 9771 00331 0146 +235 +225 311004 005 011 002 03
200830 1938N 06247W 9769 00334 0147 +238 +219 315003 005 013 000 03
200900 1936N 06247W 9772 00332 0147 +240 +220 306003 003 015 000 03
200930 1934N 06247W 9768 00336 0148 +238 +222 321003 004 015 000 03
201000 1933N 06247W 9772 00333 0148 +236 +225 321003 004 015 000 03
201030 1931N 06247W 9766 00338 0149 +235 +231 354003 004 016 000 00
201100 1929N 06247W 9769 00335 0149 +236 +227 350005 005 016 000 00
201130 1927N 06247W 9772 00333 0148 +235 +222 354004 005 017 000 03
201200 1925N 06247W 9771 00333 0148 +235 +217 351005 005 017 001 03
201230 1924N 06246W 9766 00336 0148 +235 +218 320003 004 /// /// 03
201300 1923N 06245W 9769 00336 0149 +237 +219 193002 003 019 001 03
201330 1923N 06243W 9770 00335 0150 +235 +224 161003 003 019 001 00
201400 1923N 06241W 9775 00329 0149 +235 +224 286000 003 018 002 03
201430 1921N 06241W 9769 00335 0149 +235 +224 006005 006 /// /// 03
$$
;

[artist]

[AtlanticWind]

I don't think it is a T.D , looks like it is pretty much decoupled

[Alyono]

there is an organized convection about the center requirement for a TC

we do not have that so this does not appear to be a TD

[Dean4Storms]

They found a west wind, but it has problems none the less if the surface center is near where they found that west wind. No convection, southerly shear, dry air to it's south and an MLC fully two degree's further east = Bones!

[SapphireSea]

there is an organized convection about the center requirement for a TC

we do not have that so this does not appear to be a TD

I agree with Alyono:

Recon seems to have found a few eddys or what seems to be like surface circulations. I believe in this case describes what the NHC has mentioned as "no well definable circulation". Its stepping in the right direction, and by DMAX I would say that this will develop what it needs, but it hasn't done so just yet.

[hurricanekid416]

Could the llc get tugged to the east with dmax

[chaser1]

there is an organized convection about the center requirement for a TC

we do not have that so this does not appear to be a TD

Yeah, it's gonna take a bit more time to re-align itself. Whether its going to take the entire system to slow down some (which may/may not happen), some new bursting to occur over the appearance LLC, or my guess which would be for a new center to potentially consolidate under the more vigorous mid level center. If either of these were to occur...., its not going to happen in the next couple of hours. "Maybe" 12-24 hr's perhaps, but certainly not immediately.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 282024
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 27 20130728
201500 1920N 06242W 9770 00334 //// +224 //// 026005 009 021 003 01
201530 1919N 06244W 9768 00336 0152 +221 //// 008009 010 029 007 05
201600 1918N 06245W 9769 00335 0149 +232 +227 345006 009 026 003 05
201630 1917N 06247W 9770 00334 0148 +235 +230 346005 005 018 000 03
201700 1915N 06248W 9768 00336 0149 +235 +228 005004 006 020 001 03
201730 1914N 06250W 9771 00334 0148 +235 +227 005004 004 017 002 00
201800 1913N 06251W 9769 00335 0148 +235 +227 020005 005 017 001 00
201830 1912N 06253W 9769 00336 0149 +235 +227 025006 006 018 000 03
201900 1911N 06254W 9772 00333 0149 +235 +225 019006 007 014 000 03
201930 1909N 06256W 9770 00334 0148 +235 +227 028006 006 017 000 00
202000 1908N 06257W 9770 00333 0148 +235 +227 031006 006 017 000 03
202030 1907N 06259W 9770 00334 0148 +235 +226 031007 007 015 000 03
202100 1906N 06300W 9770 00334 0148 +235 +226 031007 007 013 000 03
202130 1905N 06301W 9767 00337 0148 +235 +225 031007 008 015 001 00
202200 1903N 06303W 9771 00333 0148 +235 +225 028008 009 015 000 03
202230 1902N 06305W 9768 00336 0149 +235 +226 030008 008 015 001 03
202300 1901N 06306W 9770 00334 0149 +235 +225 031008 008 016 000 00
202330 1900N 06308W 9770 00334 0149 +235 +225 033007 008 017 000 03
202400 1859N 06309W 9772 00334 0150 +235 +224 033008 008 014 001 03
202430 1858N 06311W 9769 00336 0150 +235 +223 029008 009 016 001 03
$$
;

[hurricanekid416]

The nhc says the conditions are marginal but to me they don't look too bad

[tailgater]

I do wish they would at least check out that MLC convection it has continued and now has more popping to the east of it.

[artist]

[tailgater]

Where they going now?

['CaneFreak]

Probably headed home. Nothing to see there anyway.

Where they going now?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 282034
AF301 0104A DORIAN HDOB 28 20130728
202500 1856N 06312W 9769 00336 0150 +235 +227 024007 008 018 000 00
202530 1855N 06314W 9770 00335 0150 +235 +226 024007 007 015 000 03
202600 1854N 06315W 9768 00337 0150 +235 +225 026007 007 014 000 03
202630 1853N 06317W 9768 00336 0150 +235 +223 022006 007 013 000 03
202700 1852N 06318W 9768 00336 0150 +235 +222 012006 006 015 000 03
202730 1850N 06320W 9770 00335 0149 +235 +227 002004 005 015 001 03
202800 1849N 06321W 9771 00334 0149 +235 +228 002003 004 014 002 00
202830 1848N 06323W 9768 00336 0149 +238 +223 357005 005 013 000 00
202900 1847N 06324W 9770 00335 0148 +241 +217 010005 006 015 000 00
202930 1846N 06326W 9771 00334 0148 +241 +218 020005 006 015 001 00
203000 1844N 06327W 9771 00334 0149 +240 +223 026005 005 016 000 00
203030 1843N 06329W 9768 00338 0150 +240 +225 022006 007 015 000 00
203100 1842N 06330W 9772 00333 0150 +240 +222 021006 006 015 000 00
203130 1841N 06332W 9770 00335 0149 +240 +223 027005 006 015 000 03
203200 1840N 06333W 9772 00333 0149 +240 +223 041004 004 015 001 03
203230 1838N 06335W 9770 00335 0149 +240 +223 044004 004 016 001 00
203300 1837N 06336W 9770 00335 0150 +240 +222 043003 004 015 001 03
203330 1836N 06338W 9773 00332 0149 +240 +221 045004 004 013 001 00
203400 1835N 06339W 9769 00336 0149 +240 +219 046004 005 016 000 03
203430 1834N 06340W 9770 00335 0149 +240 +222 049004 005 013 001 00
$$
;

[chaser1]

The nhc says the conditions are marginal but to me they don't look too bad

I'd agree that overall (and considering what Dorian has gone through), conditions would appear to be a bit better than "marginal". Still though, one need take into consideration that there is still a significant amount of dry sinking air in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. This works against Dorian maintaining persistent convection. Also, while there is no apparent shear and outflow is nicely fanning out in all directions, if the only present surface point of lower pressure is decoupled from the more vigorous mid level center, and still being pushed further west than the mid level is, than this certainly is a determent. Also, while some pressure gradient is needed to aid surface convergence, having the surface pressures particularly high (normal for July) does not help either. It would be one thing if Dorian had significantly higher pressures to its north, but it is basically in an overall higher surface pressure field...and that is certainly not "ideal". Overall though, conditions could definitely be worse especially if there were some "screaming westerlies" shearing off everything on contact.

[TheStormExpert]

Tweet by Tropical Tidbits Levi Cowan:
He thinks GAME OVER, may be a little too soon to call that?

*edited by southerngale to note that Levi Cowan is not a pro met

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

@ 3:53pm 7/28/13

[artist]

[Riptide]

The LLC appears to be stationary, and drifting waiting for the MLC to catch up. I'd say this has a decent chance and that this system has been downplayed from the very beginning.

[Alyono]

How can one say environmental conditions are favorable when we have this severe decoupling of the LLC and MLC?