ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2521 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sun Jul 28, 2013 7:48 pm

Blown Away wrote::uarrow: Seems the reposition of the circulation bumped the models back east. Also the model tracks seem slower than the 18z...


Yes but notice the TVCN/Average didn't change very much
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2522 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jul 28, 2013 7:50 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:
Blown Away wrote::uarrow: Seems the reposition of the circulation bumped the models back east. Also the model tracks seem slower than the 18z...


Yes but notice the TVCN/Average didn't change very much


came a tad further north and east
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2523 Postby southerngale » Sun Jul 28, 2013 7:53 pm

SFLcane wrote:
bamajammer4eva wrote:
Blown Away wrote::uarrow: Seems the reposition of the circulation bumped the models back east. Also the model tracks seem slower than the 18z...


Yes but notice the TVCN/Average didn't change very much


came a tad further north and east

And then a due west turn. That seems odd, with so many showing it recurving.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2524 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Jul 28, 2013 7:53 pm

Blown Away wrote:
ozonepete wrote:DMIN is over. Heading for DMAX now. Dry air about to become a non-issue. Look at the mid-level water vapor. It's heading into a very deep moist environment now. Shear will be the problem for the next 1-2 days since it has slowed down. However that area of shear to the west and northwest has really shrunk in coverage and, as we've been saying, is retrograding and lessening each day. I would agree with Stacy that should it survive that shear it could be a real problem for the western Bahamas and Florida.

SST, shear, and dry air appear to be non issue in 24+hrs, why are the global models showing nothing?? None of the models show anything but a wave?? Will that change if Dorian makes a comeback tonight?

It's different for each model. The GFS appears to have inherited a weak and west bias since its WCOSS transition, and it sends 91L/Ex-Dorian into Cuba. The ECMWF has failed to seriously develop any storm so far this season. Andrea for one run, Dorian for one run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2525 Postby Blown Away » Sun Jul 28, 2013 7:53 pm

SFLcane wrote:
bamajammer4eva wrote:
Blown Away wrote::uarrow: Seems the reposition of the circulation bumped the models back east. Also the model tracks seem slower than the 18z...


Yes but notice the TVCN/Average didn't change very much


came a tad further north and east


Position relocated about 120 miles ENE of the 18z, which is about the same distance between 18z and 00z TVCN...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2526 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Jul 28, 2013 7:53 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:
Blown Away wrote::uarrow: Seems the reposition of the circulation bumped the models back east. Also the model tracks seem slower than the 18z...


Yes but notice the TVCN/Average didn't change very much


At the 18z run the Tvcn was riding the north coast of Cuba before turning NW into the SE Gulf. Now at 00z, the Tvcn has repositioned north right into the Florida Keys and rides it along the south west coast of Florida. To be fair, this change is most likely do to the repositioning of the supposed center but it is still a significant change.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2527 Postby chaser1 » Sun Jul 28, 2013 7:54 pm

As a side note; just now noticing for the first time, the interaction between Dorian's outflow on its West side and coming up against that "shear zone". Perhaps catching up to it?? Which will win out?
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#2528 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 28, 2013 7:55 pm

beautiful outflow for a non tc....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2529 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Jul 28, 2013 7:57 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:
Blown Away wrote::uarrow: Seems the reposition of the circulation bumped the models back east. Also the model tracks seem slower than the 18z...


Yes but notice the TVCN/Average didn't change very much


The 0z runs of the GFDL, HWRF, GFS etc have not been factored into the TVCN yet either.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2530 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 28, 2013 7:59 pm

It does look impressive this evening. I'm thinking NHC will reclassify it Dorian tomorrow but all models indicate weakening in a few days prior to it reaching the FL Straits Wednesday in 72hrs. Beyond then, I think it will turn northward near the FL Peninsula.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2531 Postby chaser1 » Sun Jul 28, 2013 7:59 pm

MGC wrote:Dorian: Rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated!

Nice convective blowup....lets see if it persists.....MGC


Thats it....LOL Need to come up with a term for the pain one feels when finally sitting up, after staring and looking at satellite loops WAY to long! LOL Maybe if I run to pick up some groceries, I'll come back to find a 4 degree round "bomb" go over over center?!
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#2532 Postby funster » Sun Jul 28, 2013 8:01 pm

So Dorian is going to form and then weaken again? lol :lol:
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#2533 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 28, 2013 8:02 pm

Short-wave IR image shows an impressive structure with excellent, symmetric outflow in all quadrants... and the new convection that is building at the center:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Jul 28, 2013 8:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2534 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Jul 28, 2013 8:02 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2535 Postby Blown Away » Sun Jul 28, 2013 8:03 pm

wxman57 wrote:It does look impressive this evening. I'm thinking NHC will reclassify it Dorian tomorrow but all models indicate weakening in a few days prior to it reaching the FL Straits Wednesday in 72hrs. Beyond then, I think it will turn northward near the FL Peninsula.


What weakens it again??
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2536 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 28, 2013 8:05 pm

jlauderdal wrote:What image does wxman57 have in the event of regeneration


Image
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#2537 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Jul 28, 2013 8:06 pm

:uarrow: That is too funny!
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Re: Re:

#2538 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 28, 2013 8:06 pm

weatherwindow wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Well DMAX is coming up tonight, and there is some popping convection near the MLC already. If we see convection increase around there tonight, that would indicate an LLC is forming there and this certainly can become a Tropical Storm again quite quickly.


Good evening, Chris...Certainly agree with above...Obviously, several factors are going to have to come together for that to happen. As you noted, this Dmax is going to be critical in order to initiate the preliminary pressure falls and initate the first stage of LLC consolidation. In addition, it should further warm the air column and reinforce the critical anticyclone. One of the primary reasons that I have some degree of confidence in the ultimate regeneration is the very favourable outflow in place over the trof. As 91L has slowed to a speed more in line with the ambient flow, the threat of shear has lessoned as the TUTT now appears to be moving in tandem with 91L. As noted elsewhere, SSTs are continuing to increase thruout the projected track. IMO, the only bugaboo 91L is facing in the near term is the ongoing problem of dry air. With that single exception, I believe all the pieces appear to be in place for regeneration...save the assent of the weather gods :?: ...Grtz from KW, Rich

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Rich yeah I agree with you that this thing is looking like it will regenerate. I am sure in the Keys you are closely monitoring this situation as I am in mainland South Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2539 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 28, 2013 8:07 pm

Blown Away wrote:
wxman57 wrote:It does look impressive this evening. I'm thinking NHC will reclassify it Dorian tomorrow but all models indicate weakening in a few days prior to it reaching the FL Straits Wednesday in 72hrs. Beyond then, I think it will turn northward near the FL Peninsula.


What weakens it again??


GFS is indicating 30kts shear over it in the FL Straits.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#2540 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jul 28, 2013 8:10 pm

wxman57 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:What image does wxman57 have in the event of regeneration


Image


LOL.. I love it wxman57. This is a preetty good one of Bones describing a regeneration. LOL.
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