ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

What image does wxman57 have in the event of regeneration

Absolutely brilliant.. good work 57...for the noobs, regeneration is very rare, we aren't there yet but its looking good and thus the big deal today about a currently unnamed system

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[Blown Away]

It does look impressive this evening. I'm thinking NHC will reclassify it Dorian tomorrow but all models indicate weakening in a few days prior to it reaching the FL Straits Wednesday in 72hrs. Beyond then, I think it will turn northward near the FL Peninsula.

What weakens it again??

GFS is indicating 30kts shear over it in the FL Straits.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DORIAN AL912013 07/29/13 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
SHEAR (KT) 10 15 17 15 13 15 10 18 11 14 10 14 14

SHIPS says something different? Why discount this?

[gatorcane]

Saved image. Latest IR Rainbow frame from floater. Convection increasing still:

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

LGEM and SHIPS make this a hurricane in 96 hours, weaken it by 120 hours thanks to landfall in southern Florida. GFDL ensemble mean brings this to 55 knots in 5 days, but many individual ensemble members make this a Category 1 and even Category 2 hurricane.

It's up to Dorian now...whether it meets these projections or not. DMAX should help output more storms => more outflow => more warming of the troposphere => higher heights => a weaker upper-level trough. If it makes too quickly though, it'll outrun its anticyclone (seems unlikely). It has a very vigorous mid-level center that could work down at any time, if it hasn't already.

[NDG]

I don't trust the new GFS. It has not proven itself yet, it was supposed to be takin a left turn towards P.R. tonight, as forecasted after the switch, remember?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Like southern gale said, wonder why some of the models are showing a west turn at the end back into the gulf. Track would seem pretty cut and dry with a moderately strong trough forming along the east coast late week into next weekend causing a good sized weakness between the Bermuda and sw us ridge per the nws.

[Evil Jeremy]

For what it's worth, the GOES Floater for 91L has been renamed to Dorian.

[northjaxpro]

When is Recon due back out there, tomorrow morning or afternoon?

[Evil Jeremy]

When is Recon due back out there, tomorrow morning or afternoon?

They take off in little over an hour.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Well DMAX is coming up tonight, and there is some popping convection near the MLC already. If we see convection increase around there tonight, that would indicate an LLC is forming there and this certainly can become a Tropical Storm again quite quickly.

Good evening, Chris...Certainly agree with above...Obviously, several factors are going to have to come together for that to happen. As you noted, this Dmax is going to be critical in order to initiate the preliminary pressure falls and initate the first stage of LLC consolidation. In addition, it should further warm the air column and reinforce the critical anticyclone. One of the primary reasons that I have some degree of confidence in the ultimate regeneration is the very favourable outflow in place over the trof. As 91L has slowed to a speed more in line with the ambient flow, the threat of shear has lessoned as the TUTT now appears to be moving in tandem with 91L. As noted elsewhere, SSTs are continuing to increase thruout the projected track. IMO, the only bugaboo 91L is facing in the near term is the ongoing problem of dry air. With that single exception, I believe all the pieces appear to be in place for regeneration...save the assent of the weather gods ...Grtz from KW, Rich

This should not be construed as a forecast. It is simply the opinion and reasoning of an informed amateur. These conclusions are not supported by storm2k, the NWS, or the NHC. The NWS or the NHC should be consulted for official forecasts and overall storm information

Rich yeah I agree with you that this thing is looking like it will regenerate. I am sure in the Keys you are closely monitoring this situation as I am in mainland South Florida.

Evening.

Since I live in Miami and own a home on a canal in Key Largo. I guess I need to decide if there is anything to really be concerned with. And if so what to expect and what type of prep to do.

[caneseddy]

When is Recon due back out there, tomorrow morning or afternoon?

There is a recon flight scheduled to take off at 10:30 pm tonight.

[Blown Away]

Saved image. Latest IR Rainbow frame from floater. Convection increasing still:

Wow, good looking wave!!! Thought we would see the west side flatten as it began bumping into the ULL...

[jlauderdal]

I don't trust the new GFS. It has not proven itself yet, it was supposed to be takin a left turn towards P.R. tonight, as forecasted after the switch, remember?

Did you trust the old gfs? I don't trust any of them more than 72h and then its iffy just like nhc track

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[tgenius]

If it does reform the local news in Miami is going into overhype tomorrow. :/

[wzrgirl1]

What the heck is going on here? I thought Dorian's last advisory was yesterday?? Oh my! Time to keep a keen eye on this thing. When does recon go out again?

[gatorcane]

I don't trust the new GFS. It has not proven itself yet, it was supposed to be takin a left turn towards P.R. tonight, as forecasted after the switch, remember?

Did you trust the old gfs? I don't trust any of them more than 72h and then its iffy just like nhc track

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The 7/24 run of the 12Z GFS running on the old computer did show a strong system north of Puerto Rico. It was just one run but it did show that.

[MortisFL]

Well it went from a mere 20% chance of development...up to now 50% chance. Who would have thought. Models looking more like FL. At the least some added moisture for the state.

[blp]

Can you imagine if the models start to show strengthening. This board will jump. It would be good if the models initialize this with the new area of interest. It might make a difference.

[TheStormExpert]

So Dorian is going to form and then weaken again? lol

If that's going to be the case than someone should tell Dorian to quit now!

[northjaxpro]

When is Recon due back out there, tomorrow morning or afternoon?

There is a recon flight scheduled to take off at 10:30 pm tonight.

OK. Thanks. Good call by NHC to schedule a mission late tonight given the appearance of the system this evening. The Recon mission tonight will be very interesting.