ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

Can we stay on the Storm and not the personal prep. situations?

yes please.....Dean got your center coordinates on my sat as well....displaced some...


another point is you guys insist in using the Rainbow Loop which to folks who dont know what they are looking at would think this is a massive complex....point is its is not. Use the AVN to look at cloud temps......

BTW- lastest surface map show zero low level convergence. MLC yes LLC not yet.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Trader Ron]

Met in SW Florida on the 10:00 PM news said, " nothing to worry about with regards to 91L. Find that very odd.

[ozonepete]

If you look at the CIMSS analysis for shear you see that total shear is quite high just to the west. But then look at mid-level shear. It is much lower. So that means that most of the shear is probably upper level, which is less of a problem than mid-level shear. That has been the case the last couple of days and is probably an important reason why this has been able to survive so far. Once again, it is about to encounter the heaviest shear of its existence so I would be very cautious about its chances, but if it gets past this in the next day or so it could find a very favorable environment for strengthening.

Total Shear:


Mid-level shear:

[abajan]

... Humberto was 1996. That storm is one my favorite systems to go back in the analog and study. Fascinating smalll but potent tropicall cyclone which set a record ass the fastest intensifying system before landfall within 24 hours. I often find these small cyclones rather fascinating because as we again have seen with Dorian, the models have had an extremely difficult time trying to get a handle on this system.

According to Google, Humberto was in 1995, so it couldn't have been in 1996 as well.

[tolakram]

Humberto was 1996. That storm is one my favorite systems to go back in the analog and study. Fascinating small but potent tropicall cyclone which set a record as the fastest intensifying system before landfall within 24 hours. I often find these small cyclones rather fascinating because as we again have seen with Dorian, the models have had an extremely difficult time trying to get a handle on this system.

I think they were talking about the 2007 Humberto http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_ ... %282007%29

Unfortunately the TCR does not mention any model guidance. It was an invest but genesis was not anticipated, nor was rapid intensification.

[Steve H.]

Well Hurankan, Dorian hasn't popped out of nowhere either. I was a TS before an open wave. When we have an invest, you should look at it with a new light. Not just some broken down old storm. It still has potential. Don't understand your point???

[Javlin]

Alittle bit disconserning! ex-Dorian is really appearing to be a sleeper like some in the past have been.Be safe just n case.

[ROCK]

if it developes? hard to tell with no globals even developing it....we have zero model guidance that suggests organization unless people hug the NAM...

Just a TW with a MLC would probably slip the straits or S FL...then GOM....its just going with the low level flow right now...after that I have no idea without model guidance. The left turn the TVCN is seeing is due to High pressure dropping down behind the lifting trof is what I suspect.

[ozonepete]

Well Hurankan, Dorian hasn't popped out of nowhere either. I was a TS before an open wave. When we have an invest, you should look at it with a new light. Not just some broken down old storm. It still has potential. Don't understand your point???

I think you missed his point.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening.

Since I live in Miami and own a home on a canal in Key Largo. I guess I need to decide if there is anything to really be concerned with. And if so what to expect and what type of prep to do.

Well, being on a canal in the Keys does pose certain issues above and beyond just "getting up and going". No reason to do anything quite yet but keep an ear to the latest. My father in law lives in Key Largo Village and on the water, so I can share your angst.[/quote]
Thanks Chaser,

on stilts but sill have to worry about down stairs securing the boat. Now some are talking possible hurricane. I am just up the road from your father, lake surprise.[/quote]

Hello, MST...Fyi, assume you are familiar with a 6 point tie-off for canal moored craft?...If not, several publications lay it out in detail. If you have any questions, feel free to PM me..Conchs have to stick together

http://www.aicw.org/pdfs/hurricane-manual.pdf[/quote]


Thank you,

Yes I am in this case it's on the trailer. But as you know still things to do. Grew up in Key West still go down couple times a year.

[WeatherEmperor]

I believe the recon may be taking off now. Hopefully we can get some good data tonight.

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[NDG]

The new GFS has been left bias all along, just keep that in mind.

[ninel conde]

joe bastardi hasnt jumped on this being a threat just yet.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 24m

Dry air is just as, if not more important, then shear since upper winds change very quickly, but it takes alot to get rid of dry air

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Can we stay on the Storm and not the personal prep. situations?

NP.

[tgenius]

I believe the recon may be taking off now. Hopefully we can get some good data tonight.

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

My geography is a bit off but if they are flying out of at. Croix they should be at invest pretty quickly I'd think?

[northjaxpro]

Humberto was 1996. That storm is one my favorite systems to go back in the analog and study. Fascinating small but potent tropicall cyclone which set a record as the fastest intensifying system before landfall within 24 hours. I often find these small cyclones rather fascinating because as we again have seen with Dorian, the models have had an extremely difficult time trying to get a handle on this system.

I think they were talking about the 2007 Humberto http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_ ... %282007%29

Unfortunately the TCR does not mention any model guidance. It was an invest but genesis was not anticipated, nor was rapid intensification.

Yep, I mixed up the wrong year Humberto, as that is one of those storm names which hass been cycled through several times. Thanks for the clarity for 2007.

[ObsessedMiami]

[tolakram]

No new recon data. Did the flight get cancelled?

[floridasun78]

i looking google map their no hurr hunter leaving yet? was it cancel?

[gatorcane]

Save image, convection continues to fill in around the MLC: