ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

I think visible will show a LLC outracing its mlc. Looking at the IR I think we were tracking a mlc last night and the LLC might be where recon found that wind shift out in front of the mlc.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

Looking at visible sat loop this morning and radar from San Juan there is no sign of an LLC, nothing but a sharp trough at the surface.

[NDG]

At the next TWO in a few minutes, I think they are going to leave chances at 50% and if there is no better organization during the day they are going start bringing down the chances later tonight or tomorrow morning.
After dealing with the UL trough today and tomorrow then 91L will have to start dealing with northerly shear from the death ridge over TX.

[Blown Away]

At the next TWO in a few minutes, I think they are going to leave chances at 50% and if there is no better organization during the day they are going start bringing down the chances later tonight or tomorrow morning.
After dealing with the UL trough today and tomorrow then 91L will have to start dealing with northerly shear from the death ridge over TX.

You probably right, but I'm going w/ 70% b/c of the recent convection...

[ninel conde]

At the next TWO in a few minutes, I think they are going to leave chances at 50% and if there is no better organization during the day they are going start bringing down the chances later tonight or tomorrow morning.
After dealing with the UL trough today and tomorrow then 91L will have to start dealing with northerly shear from the death ridge over TX.

cant argue with that. the overall pattern doesnt bode well for ex dorian. i do think if it can head out ne it may get back to weak TS status off the carolinas.

[CourierPR]

At this moment, there is more convection with Dorian's remnants than with TS Flossie.

[boca]

Does 91L still pose a threat to Florida or is it a recurve east of us in the Bahamas ?

[NDG]

I was wrong, they already started bringing down the chances this morning, lol.

[Dylan]

Dorian is really pushing up against the TUTT now, and you can tell just by the shape of the disturbance. Also, on WV you can just see the northerly shear just waiting for Dorian behind it.



http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[ninel conde]

Does 91L still pose a threat to Florida or is it a recurve east of us in the Bahamas ?

check the NHC for official forecasts. in my opinion there is no threat to florida other than increased showers and gusty winds should it continue west

[Extratropical94]

Down to 40%

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS DISTURBANCE STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A CLOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION TO OCCUR...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PASSING
WELL TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

[CourierPR]

I was wrong, they already started bringing down the chances this morning, lol.

Please show NHC data.

[Extratropical94]

I was wrong, they already started bringing down the chances this morning, lol.

Please show NHC data.

If 'this morning' refers to the 8am TWO, then have a look at my post just above yours. The NHC has lowered the percentage to 40%.

[NDG]

Does 91L still pose a threat to Florida or is it a recurve east of us in the Bahamas ?

I would say chances of a threat of an organized tropical system to affect FL have gone down this morning.
We are probably just going to see its moisture reach us later this week.

[CourierPR]

NDG, the NHC lowered the percentage from 50 to 40. You seem to believe it is the beginning of a trend. Let's wait and see.

[sfwx]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

DISCUSSION...
BY THURSDAY THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN ARE EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING
THE BAHAMAN ISLANDS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER DORIAN
WILL REGAIN STRENGTH INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER GIVES A 50% CHANCE RE-INTENSIFICATION INTO A
TROPICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO APPARENT SURFACE
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. ALSO...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE WAVE AS IT HEADS TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. EVEN
SO...IT COULD STILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT GETS CLOSER. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS ALSO DEPICT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY THURSDAY WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN TO MAKE A MOVE TO THE NORTH AND
GET PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH. SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. CHANCES FOR SEA BREEZE
INDUCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PREVAIL.

[NDG]

This is what I see this morning at the surface based on the hr vis sat loop.
The red dash is approximately where the surface trough is, I do see some southerly winds east of the trough but no evidence of a westerly or northwesterly wind unlike yesterday morning where there was at least some straight north winds west of the trough.
The ML circulation is still east of the surface trough.

[crownweather]

06Z HWRF model now forecasts a hurricane in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.



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[SFLcane]

[jhpigott]

06Z HWRF model now forecasts a hurricane in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.



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Did Dorian come thru the straits, then turn up the FL west coast or did it cross thru S. FL on that run of the 06Z HWRF?

[GCANE]

Rain rate on the increase this morning.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... bean.0.jpg

Its trying to out muscle the ULL.