ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[crownweather]

Right through the Florida Straits on Thursday spinning up pretty quickly into a tropical storm.

06Z HWRF model now forecasts a hurricane in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/5264/ftwp.png

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Did Dorian come thru the straits, then turn up the FL west coast or did it cross thru S. FL on that run of the 06Z HWRF?

[MiamiensisWx]

The surrounding low-level environment appears to have mixed out (moistened) since yesterday. Note the absence of abundant stratocumulus east of the system. So instability may be less of a problem from this point on.

[wxman57]

The new GFS has been left bias all along, just keep that in mind.

Isn't it a bit early for people to be making judgments on the "new" GFS? For starters, is it even that big of an upgrade? And if it is, It's been in use for less than a week and only with one, not very strong Atlantic storm. I'm just saying, if were going to make judgments on the "new" GFS, lets give it some time.

I'm not aware of any GFS change. I know that the computer it is being run on changed last week, but I thought that was all that changed.

[tolakram]

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=7

[CDO62]

06Z HWRF model now forecasts a hurricane in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.



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Did Dorian come thru the straits, then turn up the FL west coast or did it cross thru S. FL on that run of the 06Z HWRF?

Here is the 06z run

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[MiamiensisWx]

12Z model plots:

[GCANE]

Coming back to life on microwave

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html


The cell trying to sustain itself just south of 21N 65W looks interesting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


Its over the LLC.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 290415.jpg

[SFLcane]

finally seeing some convergence with this thing

[gatorcane]

finally seeing some convergence with this thing

Yeah me too. Ironically this is the most convection it has had in a couple of days but NHC lowers the percentage? That's a bit perplexing to me. Thought they would leave it at 50% for now and see how it does with this new convection.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 91, 2013072912, , BEST, 0, 208N, 654W, 25, 1015, WV

[SFLcane]

[MiamiensisWx]

finally seeing some convergence with this thing

Yeah me too. Ironically this is the most convection it has had in a couple of days but NHC lowers the percentage? That's a bit perplexing to me. Thought they would leave it at 50% for now and see how it does with this new convection.

They probably lowered the probabilities due to the lack of dynamical-model support for redevelopment--aside, of course, from the 06Z HWRF (which shows redevelopment beyond the 48-hour time frame).

[tolakram]

Live WV loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

[cycloneye]

12z guidance.SHIP stays bullish.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1230 UTC MON JUL 29 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE DORIAN (AL912013) 20130729 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130729 1200 130730 0000 130730 1200 130731 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.8N 65.4W 21.6N 68.4W 22.2N 71.1W 22.8N 73.8W
BAMD 20.8N 65.4W 21.5N 67.5W 22.0N 69.3W 22.3N 70.9W
BAMM 20.8N 65.4W 21.3N 67.8W 21.7N 70.1W 21.9N 72.1W
LBAR 20.8N 65.4W 21.6N 67.9W 22.1N 70.1W 22.5N 72.3W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130731 1200 130801 1200 130802 1200 130803 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.3N 76.2W 24.8N 80.1W 26.4N 82.1W 27.6N 83.9W
BAMD 22.5N 72.5W 22.9N 75.7W 23.7N 78.3W 24.5N 80.7W
BAMM 22.0N 74.2W 22.7N 77.9W 24.0N 80.4W 25.3N 82.5W
LBAR 22.7N 74.4W 23.8N 78.3W 26.1N 80.6W 28.8N 81.4W
SHIP 41KTS 50KTS 60KTS 68KTS
DSHP 41KTS 50KTS 60KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.8N LONCUR = 65.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 20.4N LONM12 = 62.0W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 19.7N LONM24 = 58.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1015MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

If it was for the guidance, we would be talking about a healthy TS or H at this point!

[MiamiensisWx]

New hot towers are forming near 20.7°N 65.5°W, but of course the internal structure is still disheveled. Sustained convection will be needed for the LLV and the MLV to align more properly.

[SFLcane]

If you really look at things it appears that upper level low just ahead of ex-Dorian is enhancing storms. Conditions just aren't favorable for the time being

[Blown Away]

12Z model plots:

Did the TVCN dissipate 91L or did it slow down a bunch on the 12z?? The track is very short this time...

[tolakram]

The 12Z Euro initialized a closed low then rips it apart in the next frame. In my opinion this will look good for the next few hours, then get blown apart.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HURAKAN]

The trough is keeping ex-DORIAN in check!