ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

If deep convection continues next 12 hrs i think pretty good chance Dorian makes a come back.

[Houstonia]

Noon news in Houston (KHOU - drama queens, all) are ramping up the coverage. The return of Dorian was the lead-in news story.

[tolakram]

Looks to my untrained eye that convection is beginning to rapidly diminish.

saved loop



live link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[lester]

URNT15 KNHC 291718
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 09 20130729
170930 2018N 06613W 9856 00278 0173 +234 +225 118017 017 025 001 00
171000 2018N 06614W 9854 00279 0172 +232 +227 116016 017 024 001 03
171030 2017N 06616W 9855 00278 0172 +233 +228 122016 017 025 000 00
171100 2016N 06617W 9855 00278 0172 +233 +229 120014 016 024 000 05
171130 2016N 06619W 9852 00280 //// +231 //// 118015 016 024 000 05
171200 2015N 06621W 9852 00278 0170 +234 +233 121015 016 025 000 03
171230 2015N 06623W 9844 00288 0169 +236 +232 133013 014 026 002 03
171300 2016N 06624W 9854 00277 0169 +239 +230 139016 016 021 000 00
171330 2016N 06626W 9854 00277 0169 +237 +231 140016 017 021 000 00
171400 2017N 06627W 9852 00278 0169 +239 +225 148015 016 019 001 03
171430 2017N 06629W 9854 00277 0169 +240 +221 155013 014 019 000 00
171500 2017N 06631W 9852 00278 0169 +239 +210 155015 016 022 001 00
171530 2017N 06633W 9854 00277 0168 +241 +209 153016 018 022 000 00
171600 2017N 06634W 9854 00275 0167 +243 +210 152019 019 023 000 00
171630 2016N 06636W 9854 00276 0167 +245 +205 149019 019 023 000 03
171700 2016N 06637W 9854 00275 0167 +244 +194 154017 019 022 000 00
171730 2015N 06639W 9853 00275 0166 +243 +204 156017 017 022 000 00
171800 2015N 06641W 9854 00273 0165 +245 +212 158015 016 023 000 00
171830 2015N 06642W 9854 00275 0165 +244 +217 159015 016 022 000 00
171900 2014N 06644W 9839 00286 0166 +240 +219 158015 016 022 000 00
$$

[SouthDadeFish]

There is a reason the global models aren't developing this thing. Conditions aren't that favorable for development over the next 24 hours. As WxMan already said, any LLC that may be established is very weak and SW of the main convective burst. If there wasn't that upper-level through just to the W of Dorian, this would be another story. But for now, that is keeping this wave in check. That doesn't mean we shouldn't keep watching ex-Dorian, but development today appears pretty unlikely. A thing I would watch for is if surface pressures start to fall...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

91L has a very deceiving, vigorous mid-level circulation that could work down at any time as long as convection persists. Doesn't seem to be occurring yet.

[lester]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291728
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 10 20130729
171930 2014N 06646W 9839 00288 0166 +240 +221 158014 014 022 000 00
172000 2014N 06647W 9836 00289 0166 +240 +221 161015 015 022 000 00
172030 2013N 06649W 9839 00287 0165 +240 +220 161014 014 022 000 00
172100 2013N 06650W 9838 00288 0165 +238 +220 160014 015 023 000 03
172130 2013N 06652W 9830 00294 0165 +237 +221 149014 015 023 001 00
172200 2013N 06654W 9840 00285 0165 +236 +225 152015 016 023 000 00
172230 2013N 06656W 9836 00290 0166 +237 +220 159017 018 023 000 03
172300 2014N 06657W 9839 00286 0165 +235 +227 156015 016 025 000 03
172330 2013N 06659W 9840 00285 0165 +235 +225 160014 015 023 000 00
172400 2012N 06700W 9836 00289 0165 +235 +225 163013 014 022 000 03
172430 2011N 06701W 9836 00287 0164 +235 +225 156013 013 020 000 03
172500 2010N 06703W 9836 00288 0164 +236 +220 154012 013 021 000 00
172530 2010N 06705W 9839 00286 0164 +237 +214 153012 012 021 000 00
172600 2010N 06706W 9836 00287 0164 +235 +219 151011 012 021 001 00
172630 2009N 06708W 9836 00288 0164 +240 +211 155012 012 021 000 00
172700 2009N 06709W 9838 00287 0163 +240 +214 168011 012 020 000 03
172730 2009N 06711W 9836 00287 0163 +239 +215 171011 012 019 000 00
172800 2008N 06713W 9839 00283 0163 +239 +219 171011 011 020 000 03
172830 2008N 06714W 9839 00283 0162 +238 +222 174011 011 021 000 00
172900 2008N 06716W 9840 00283 0163 +237 +225 181010 012 020 000 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

[SFLcane]

Looks to my untrained eye that convection is beginning to rapidly diminish.

saved loop

http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/3095/vix.gif

live link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

It should nothing at lowers levels to force convergence.

[tolakram]

[Alyono]

12Z HWRF has a whole 17 KT in 126 hours. Big difference from the 6Z

[lester]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291738
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 11 20130729
172930 2007N 06717W 9838 00286 0163 +235 +231 173009 009 019 000 00
173000 2007N 06719W 9839 00284 0162 +237 +230 175009 009 021 000 00
173030 2007N 06721W 9838 00285 0162 +238 +231 176009 010 020 000 00
173100 2006N 06722W 9837 00285 0162 +238 +232 175010 010 019 000 00
173130 2006N 06724W 9836 00286 0162 +241 +223 179010 010 021 000 00
173200 2005N 06725W 9839 00284 0161 +243 +219 181009 010 019 000 03
173230 2005N 06727W 9838 00285 0161 +244 +216 186009 009 019 000 00
173300 2005N 06729W 9839 00282 0161 +245 +215 181010 011 020 000 03
173330 2005N 06730W 9834 00287 0161 +244 +216 167010 011 020 000 03
173400 2004N 06732W 9838 00284 0161 +243 +212 157009 010 020 000 00
173430 2004N 06733W 9838 00285 0161 +246 +201 154008 009 020 000 03
173500 2004N 06735W 9836 00285 0161 +245 +210 152007 008 018 000 03
173530 2003N 06737W 9838 00283 0160 +245 +219 155007 007 019 000 00
173600 2003N 06738W 9838 00284 0160 +245 +216 155006 007 019 000 03
173630 2003N 06740W 9836 00284 0160 +245 +211 157006 006 019 001 00
173700 2003N 06742W 9838 00284 0160 +245 +209 156006 007 018 001 03
173730 2002N 06743W 9838 00283 0160 +240 +225 166007 007 018 001 00
173800 2002N 06745W 9836 00284 0159 +242 +221 164007 008 019 000 00
173830 2002N 06746W 9836 00284 0159 +241 +221 162007 007 018 000 00
173900 2001N 06748W 9838 00283 0160 +241 +224 163005 006 018 000 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

12Z HWRF has a whole 17 KT in 126 hours. Big difference from the 6Z

Here it is.

HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -83.10 LAT: 26.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1016.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.00
HOUR: 123.0 LONG: -83.20 LAT: 26.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1016.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 22.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -83.10 LAT: 26.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1015.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 17.00

[tolakram]

[GCANE]

I think that high-rain rate cell is just going to squeak past the UL vorticity of the ULL.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... W.69pc.jpg

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... W.55pc.jpg


UL Winds on the southern portion of the cell are out flowing to the west

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


It may just squeeze itself by the worst of the 200mb PV.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF

[Blown Away]

12z NAM to SFL...
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... mageSize=M

Joe B's Twitter:

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

2 p.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook per the National Hurricane Center --

SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA...AS WELL AS EARLY DATA FROM AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION...INDICATE THAT THERE IS NO CLOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...
WHICH ARE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION TO
OCCUR...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION APPEARS TO
BE DIMINISHING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REMNANTS
OF DORIAN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND
COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE BAHAMAS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

[galaxy401]

If this storms survives and enters the Gulf of Mexico are conditions more favorable there or is shear supposed to stay strong?

[SFLcane]

SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA...AS WELL AS EARLY DATA FROM AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION...INDICATE THAT THERE IS NO CLOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...
WHICH ARE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION TO
OCCUR...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION APPEARS TO
BE DIMINISHING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REMNANTS
OF DORIAN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND
COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE BAHAMAS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Ah please...next

[lester]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291748
AF301 0204A DORIAN HDOB 12 20130729
173930 2001N 06750W 9835 00285 0160 +245 +219 153006 006 017 000 03
174000 2001N 06751W 9838 00284 0160 +245 +218 151005 006 017 000 00
174030 2000N 06753W 9838 00283 0160 +245 +219 155005 005 019 000 00
174100 2000N 06755W 9835 00287 0160 +244 +220 163004 005 016 000 03
174130 2000N 06756W 9838 00282 0159 +241 +227 163005 005 012 000 00
174200 1959N 06758W 9839 00281 0159 +240 +229 167004 005 013 000 00
174230 1959N 06759W 9836 00285 0159 +240 +229 170004 005 012 000 03
174300 1959N 06801W 9838 00283 0159 +240 +228 172004 004 013 000 03
174330 1958N 06803W 9836 00283 0159 +241 +226 166004 004 012 000 00
174400 1958N 06804W 9838 00282 0158 +245 +223 159004 004 010 000 00
174430 1958N 06806W 9836 00283 0159 +245 +222 137003 004 008 000 00
174500 1957N 06808W 9837 00283 0158 +245 +220 128003 004 009 000 00
174530 1957N 06809W 9836 00282 0158 +245 +218 108003 004 006 000 00
174600 1957N 06811W 9836 00283 0158 +245 +219 105004 005 004 000 00
174630 1956N 06813W 9836 00283 0158 +245 +222 109004 005 006 000 03
174700 1956N 06814W 9839 00282 0158 +245 +220 122002 006 007 001 00
174730 1956N 06816W 9838 00281 0157 +245 +220 205001 001 005 001 00
174800 1955N 06817W 9835 00283 0158 +245 +221 074001 002 007 000 03
174830 1955N 06819W 9836 00283 0158 +245 +221 060003 004 006 000 00
174900 1955N 06819W 9836 00283 0159 +244 +218 075003 004 006 000 03
$$